George001

Having civil disagreements is fine, but insulting and verbally abusing meteorologists like that should be ban worthy. The expertise of those who do this for a living and work in the field is incredibly valuable, it’s important to keep in mind the mets here are providing us with information they paid tens of thousands of dollars to learn for free. Yes, they bust sometimes, that’s the nature of the field. Forming a hypothesis, testing it, rejecting it when incorrect, and updating it as you get new information is not a moral failing, it’s literally a core part of the scientific method. @brooklynwx99 has been on this board for years. Despite a lot of the material he and the other mets here post being over my head, I have noticed his predictions have gotten more accurate over the years. From the perspective of an outsider, it looks like he made incorrect predictions, learned from them, and adapted his process over time. I view him as a story of a younger meteorologist (he mentioned he’s a younger guy on another server I was in) successfully applying the scientific method and becoming better and better at his job because of it. That’s a success story, its exactly what smart and analytically minded people do. In the interest of optimizing the pursuit of knowledge, it’s in all of our best interests to not drive the mets here off this board, and to stop moralizing the scientific process.

I thought the models would correct west today. They didn’t, but it’s still a massive ocean storm where even a 50 mile NW bump would make a huge difference. It’s too early to throw in the towel especially for eastern areas.

I’m not buying this eastern trend at all. Something big is going to happen this weekend.

Agreed. The location of the western ridge axis even on the worse runs is over Idaho as the storm approaches. That doesn’t scream suppression.

AI gfs is more amplified

I’d be happy with a repeat of the early Jan 2018 storm. Yeah it left some on the table, but it was still a blizzard and still had over a foot of snow. If we get a repeat of that, I’m looking at reaching my seasonal average snowfall by Feb 2nd. No matter what happens, still a lot of winter left.

The low moving east to west into PA won’t happen, but the second track isn’t impossible. I don’t like it, but it can and has happened before. It’s probably going to be east of that though.

We have our differences of opinion, but hes a good dude and id like him to stick around. So @TauntonBlizzard2013, before making a post downplaying or calling off a storm, I strongly recommend doing shrooms first to break down the mental barriers, view yourself objectively and ask “am I downplaying this because i genuinely believe what I’m saying, or is it a form of coping”?

Yeah, surface temps != ratios. I remember a few years ago those kuchera maps gave me 10-12 in a WAA event, I ended up with around 7 and was disappointed. I like the approach old school mets like Bernie Rayno use. He uses models as tools to help make forecasts, but his #1 tool is the depth of knowledge and experience he has as a meteorologist who has been doing it for decades. I recall him mentioning in a video a week ago he believed the storm would take more of a northern track due to the overall setup and his previous experience as a meteorologist who has seen this setup before.

Early Jan 2018 had a huge miller A that occluded too far south. Still was a great storm, but was 12-16 rather than a widespread 2 footer due to it blowing its load too early.

I’m eyeballing 17-18 inches. Burial

Canadian is also more amplified

Yeah the drifting makes it tough. I tried measuring in different spots, got 15, 17, 11, 12, and 13 inches.

That one is worth watching for sure, we are in a cold and amplified pattern.

Feet of snow and the Patriots are headed to the Super Bowl, it doesn’t get better than this

I’m at 8.5 inches (just measured). Already the biggest event in 4 years and still have a long way to go

Holy shit that’s a burial

I remember hearing on other places that the high pressure would suppress it to the south. They said that a northern track would not happen, and DC would not mix.

2 feet of snow + a Pats W, let’s do it

Yeah it’s just snow, it’s not that big of a deal. We have all of February and March so it’s not like winter is anywhere near over. I missed a huge storm when I went skiing in Colorado years ago, didn’t really give a shit because I was too busy having a blast skiing with my friends. Now if the Pats lose, I’m setting my house on fire.

If I had to choose between no snow at all tomorrow and a Patriots win vs 2 feet of snow and a Patriots loss, I’m picking the Patriots win every time. As much as I like the snow, Boston sports comes first.

I don’t get all the panic over the NAM. Personally, if I get 15 inches of snow and then taint I would consider that a huge win.

Id like to get that 100 miles SE.

Yeah, those daily 7am liquor store trips take a toll. I don’t drink, but I made a couple friends during my time in the nuthouse, and they called it “alcohol brain”. I’m not judging…. I have “weed brain” (years of my nightly 100mg+ RSO concentrate ritual… it definitely took a toll). Thats why I stick to shrooms now.

The A in Miller A = asshole The B in Miller B = burial