George001
-
Posts
6,258 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by George001
-
I was optimistic about this pattern but that is changing now that we are on the verge of whiffing 2 decent storm chances to the south. Can’t sugarcoat this, going into mid to late Jan with nothing in a La Niña is bad news. Even if Feb is somewhat snowy to start, at this point a below average snow winter is extremely likely. -
Bring it on. Need something to shift the storm track north.
-
I’ll pass on these 2-4/3-6 solutions. Wasted potential doesn’t sit right with me, it’s difficult to get excited about half a foot of snow when there is always the what if…. It could have been so much more.
-
Yep, weak shredded garbage again. Not going to cut it
-
1-3/2-4 = garbage. This had the potential to be big if the fucking energy out west ejected faster. I am officially out on this “threat”
-
Yeah the Euro still holds way too much energy back. The issue is we are getting closer to a middle ground solution, but needed yesterday’s gfs runs to be entirely right. A middle ground solution doesn’t cut it.
-
Yeah not a fan of the 12z gfs. Looks weak and shredded
-
After seeing those earlier gfs runs a light event would be disappointing. It’s blizzard or bust
-
I’m not giving up yet but need to see only improvements from here. It’s close enough to the event that you don’t really want to see any steps back.
-
Gefs still on board despite the OP looking like shit.
-
It will be very disappointing if the Euro is right. I have been waiting long enough, I want my goddamn blizzard!
-
Agreed. I like that the gfs doubled down, but want to see the Euro join the party tonight. It’s a very complicated setup.
-
I like seeing snows fairly close to the coast despite an unfavorable low track. Shows that we have some room for error here.
-
im not sure, but the low is south due to the energy getting buried out west.
-
On another forum I’m on they have access to the Euro and unfortunately it isn’t good news. The Euro buried the energy once again.
-
I’d like to see the Euro bump north tonight with the low
-
I’d rather have a repeat of March 2017 than this. Hopefully the Euro is more north.
-
The issue with 21-22 is that was more of an east based La Niña. This is a modoki La Niña with the core of the cold focused west, while the eastern ENSO regions have warmer anomalies. So although 21-22 isnt a bad match for strength, I would say 08-09 and 16-17 are better ENSO analogs due to how they developed (modoki rather than east based).
-
EPS also made a big jump NW. Very strong signal
-
967mb low stalls about 50 miles NW of the benchmark
-
Yeah I don’t expect either of us to be the bullseye in this type of setup, that will likely be NW of us. I would rather this than another southern slider though, decent snows on the front end before going over to mix and or rain. If I get 6 inches and 20 miles NW gets 2 feet, so be it. The ski areas need the snow anyways. Hopefully we can get lucky and get a low track 25-50 or so miles SE of where the GFS has it.
-
Feb 2021 and March 2017 are decent analogs
-
I like seeing both the gfs and Euro ejecting more energy. But there are a couple things telling me to pump the breaks here. This isn’t a classic setup, it’s too thread the needle for my liking. It’s unfortunate the 6th got squashed because the airmass was a lot better for that one. 1. The western ridge axis is too far west 2. The airmass is marginal, leaving less room for error in terms of a coastal hugger track. If there is a storm, ptype issues are a very real concern for the coast.
-
That’s fair, the setup definitely doesn’t look as good on the ensembles as it did a few days ago. I don’t like the orientation of the western ridge axis on the ensembles, ideally that would be more north-south than SW-NE. Hopefully something can break our way, it would be a shame to waste all this cold with no precip.
