George001

Definitely not impossible to recover and salvage average snowfall, but at this point the probability is higher that we finish with a below average snow season than an above average one. The issue is many areas are a foot or more BN and the long range looks fairly dry. I don’t like that we are approaching mid Jan in a modoki La Niña (which are usually frontloaded) with barely any snow. I was optimistic a month ago, but whiffing on both the 1/6 and 1/11 threats isn't good. Oh well, it sucks but it is what it is. Hopefully I am wrong and we get buried in the second half of winter. Regardless, at least its been cold enough for the ski resorts to make snow.

Rain?

Blocking is gone. Good

The next window is 1/19-21. Although the antecedent airmass is good, I am not optimistic about this setup and would pump the breaks here. Why? https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/eps/2025010800/eps_z500a_namer_45.png 1. The western ridge axis is a lot more west than ideal. Classic east coast cyclogenesis setups have that ridge centered over Montana, not south of Alaska. 2. The trough is positively tilted with energy getting buried in the SW again. This raises concerns about missed phasing. I suppose an SWFE type system is possible, but there isn’t a lot of room for error here. It’s more of a thread the needle type setup, if you phase too early (if there is a phase, it would likely be west of where we want it), the storm cuts and it’s a Midwest blizzard while we rain. If you don’t phase, it gets shunted south and we get nothing.

What im hoping is that when we do transition to a -PNA pattern the storm track shifts north and we get hammered. That is a possibility, but it also could easily shift more north than we want and be congrats NNE. If it is congrats NNE while Massachusetts rains, probably looking at a ratter.

Realistically the path to a near average to average snow winter this year (above average is unlikely at this point) is for us to be on the right side of the gradient when we transition to a -PNA in late Jan into Feb, and then to get lucky and get a monster blizzard in March. The pattern we have been in since early December has not panned out snow wise, storms are being shunted south while we are left cold and dry in Massachusetts. It sucks, but I do feel like I learned something from this. Trust your gut and zoom out, there was reason to be skeptical of the 1/11-12 threat. The western ridge axis was never ideal. It was about 300 miles west of where you want for east coast cyclogenesis AND was oriented SW to NE rather than north-south. I focused too much on the former, so I thought we were looking at a March 2017/Feb 2021 repeat with coastal ptype issues but an interior blizzard (would have been a much better outcome than this). I overlooked the orientation of the western ridge axis, leading me to discount the weak sauce OTS Euro runs. I won’t make that mistake again. Yes the Euro buries energy out west too much sometimes, but ignoring the Euro inside 5 days once it locks in on a solution for several cycles isn’t the best idea.

Welp, it’s over for this threat. Gfs has fully caved to the Euro. Unfortunately it looks like the burying energy out west idea will end up being correct. I’ve been burned one too many times, for the rest of the winter I’m not buying in on any nor’easter and or blizzard potential until I literally see the snow on the ground. Lighter events sure, those are easier to get. But everything needs to go right to get a blizzard, that’s true even in good patterns. Sometimes you just end up cold and dry, and it looks like that will be the case for January.

I average about 40 inches, I’m taking the under on that. Probably going to end up with around half of that.

I’m at the point where I am rooting for the La Niña to take over and for the SE ridge to flex.

I was optimistic about this pattern but that is changing now that we are on the verge of whiffing 2 decent storm chances to the south. Can’t sugarcoat this, going into mid to late Jan with nothing in a La Niña is bad news. Even if Feb is somewhat snowy to start, at this point a below average snow winter is extremely likely.

Bring it on. Need something to shift the storm track north.

I’ll pass on these 2-4/3-6 solutions. Wasted potential doesn’t sit right with me, it’s difficult to get excited about half a foot of snow when there is always the what if…. It could have been so much more.

Yep, weak shredded garbage again. Not going to cut it

Weak sauce

1-3/2-4 = garbage. This had the potential to be big if the fucking energy out west ejected faster. I am officially out on this “threat”

Yeah the Euro still holds way too much energy back. The issue is we are getting closer to a middle ground solution, but needed yesterday’s gfs runs to be entirely right. A middle ground solution doesn’t cut it.

Yeah not a fan of the 12z gfs. Looks weak and shredded

After seeing those earlier gfs runs a light event would be disappointing. It’s blizzard or bust

I’m not giving up yet but need to see only improvements from here. It’s close enough to the event that you don’t really want to see any steps back.

Gefs still on board despite the OP looking like shit.

It will be very disappointing if the Euro is right. I have been waiting long enough, I want my goddamn blizzard!

Agreed. I like that the gfs doubled down, but want to see the Euro join the party tonight. It’s a very complicated setup.

I like seeing snows fairly close to the coast despite an unfavorable low track. Shows that we have some room for error here.

im not sure, but the low is south due to the energy getting buried out west.

On another forum I’m on they have access to the Euro and unfortunately it isn’t good news. The Euro buried the energy once again.