George001

I’m a bit skeptical of the big Jan idea, looks like the 13-14 analog may have been a year early. So far I like the 12-13 analog, which did torch in Jan. My thoughts are that the strong PV will cause some issues in Jan, but come Feb we will see it weaken a bit and the storm track will come south a bit. The latest CFS illustrates this idea well with AN temps in Jan up to the Canadian border, where as Feb has normal temps north of NYC. Both Jan and Feb have well AN precip. The Jan pattern looks stormy but with ptype risks outside of NNE. I’m thinking Feb will be a very snowy month in Massachusetts.

It’s not a La Niña, it’s cold neutral. Even other non ONI indices indicate a weak event at best, so I would not expect ENSO to be a big driver this year. I actually have the opposite view, I’m expecting a lot of western troughing the rest of Dec well into Jan. The cold snap only looks to be a 7-10 day event, with the warmth lasting 2-3 weeks. If guidance is right, we would be in a warm dominated pattern. Im more optimistic about the second half of winter due to the weakening -PDO. It will still be negative, but not the degree it is now. Also, I’m skeptical of the guidance rapidly weakening the polar vortex, I’m thinking that is both overdone and it’s being rushed.

Yeah too far out

I’m a little nervous about how long the AN temps last on some of the long range guidance, especially considering the BN temps only appear to be lasting 1 week. That simply isn’t going to cut it if looking for a good winter.

It’s a bit concerning that the cold period before the relaxation appears to only be a 10 day window, I was hoping it would last another week. However, like I said before we won’t have a great idea of how things will play out until we get to the other side of the relaxation period. Are we looking at 10 days of cold/5 days of warm then back to cold? Or 10 days of cold followed by 2+ weeks of warm before a flip to cold?

18z gfs has a massive ice storm for SNE for the 10-11th

Massive ice storm for New England

No, it’s just a relaxation period after 10 days of cold. How long the relaxation period lasts before the shift back to a colder pattern will be telling in terms of what direction this winter could be going.

I’d take that and run

It’s just a relaxation period, everything remains on track.

Sounds favorable for a -EPO/+NAO pattern. This is why I believe writing this coming winter off was a mistake. Yeah with the high solar activity there was support for a strong PV/+NAO/+AO winter. The latest guidance and current conditions support this, the pattern turns +NAO fairly quickly and the PV is expected to remain very strong into Jan. The signs are there that both the +NAO and the -EPO could be kind of stubborn. If the -EPO/+NAO recurs throughout winter that bodes well for our snow prospects in New England. History that has been a very snowy pattern for New England. Less so for the Mid Atlantic.

This doesn’t feel like the last 2 winters at all. December was a torch last year, the first 2 weeks at least look legitimately cold with strong ridging out west. The pacific is much, much more favorable. I guess the risk is a 22-23 scenario? Honestly December 22 was pretty good, colder than average with plenty of storms. Honestly think we just got a bit unlucky there, roll the dice with that look and we get more snow 9/10 times. The issue with 22-23 was Jan and Feb torched when the NAO broke down. Just endless western troughing. The pacific looks a lot more favorable than Dec 2022 for this upcoming pattern. What happens after is unclear, but these next couple weeks we have a legitimate shot at significant snows.

We may not get anything out of it, but we should have at least 1 shot at a significant nor’easter before then based on the 500mb pattern advertised across guidance.

Yeah too far north this run.

Recently the pattern has shifted to a colder one that is northern stream dominated. With this, the models have been showing a shortwave diving down out of central Canada into the CONUS. The clipper has been trending a bit stronger on some recent runs, if that continues and it digs a bit farther south there is potential for explosive miller B redevelopment. The signal for explosive miller B cyclogenesis isn’t particularly strong right now, but it’s worth keeping an eye on. Even if that doesn’t happen, this will likely produce a light to moderate snowfall for many areas.

Wow

Anthony and I have been tracking the Dec 5 clipper threat for about a week now on another weather board. It has been on and off guidance but the signal is there.

Just like that the clipper that was offshore for a couple runs is back on the 18z gfs.

I agree. The MJO is projected to be weak amplitude, not really a pattern driver like it has been in recent years. This year the projected pattern looks more similar to some of the early to mid 2010s rather than the post 2015 winters.

The whole there is nothing to track thing isn’t true. There is a clipper threat for around the 4-5th, then a miller B threat around the 7th-8th, then possibly a miller A for the 11-12th time period.

No, negativity is fine when it’s justified. It’s not justified for this upcoming pattern. There is no guarantee of success, but it would take some shitty luck to not score in this upcoming pattern. We might get a clipper in early Dec. A CLIPPER! Isn’t that exciting?

Miller B threat?

I wouldn’t say last years Nino resembled a moderate event. The temp and precip profile resembled the borderline super Nino composite. The subtropical jet in particular was extremely strong, the big difference was the lack of a raging GOA low, so in that aspect it differed. We also saw more MJO in the maritime phases than is typical of a Nino this strong. It was most similar to some of the older analogs like 57-58 and 72-73, but ended up being much warmer since the climate is much warmer now.

I agree that there are a couple of flaws, but overall things look good. The small details will change for better or worse. If anything, the western ridge axis is a bit west of ideal for the classic benchmark track. Ideally for coastal areas we want it centered over Montana, for the Dec 5 time period it’s centered over Washington. I would actually be more optimistic for your area than mine if a storm were to pop up due to this.

I would rather have snow too but cold and dry is better than having above average temps during the winter. There is nothing worse than above normal temps during the winter. That said, one moderate snow event would make a huge difference. Given the BN temps, the snow would stick around for a while.