George001

Yeah I remember you brought up that this could be a colder version of 2015-2016 a few months ago. Hopefully we get a big storm this year way north of the blizzard that year.

To be fair to Snowman, he called for Dec and Jan to be warm and Feb to be more favorable. That seems like a reasonable call right now, similar to 2015-2016 (which is looking like a very good analog). Feb 2016 I remember being a pretty good month, even though the winter was overall mild and BN snow for my area.

I haven’t looked at the actual anomalies in a while, but now ENSO 1.2 is the weakest region. It’s basinwide, but if anything it has a slight WEST tilt not east. That’s unusual in a nino this strong. It’s interesting how Snowman was right about the strength of the nino, but you and Ray were right about the structure. It’s weird, we have the STJ on roids which is common in stronger nino events, but the look out west so far has been more like a bad Nina pattern (which Bluewave talked about a lot).

I’ve been fairly pessimistic about this winters pattern so far, but the pattern for the 1/20 period legitimately looks great and has the potential to deliver a big one. Both the Atlantic and pacific look to be cooperating, something we haven’t seen in a long time. Even the 1/16 threat which doesn’t have as ideal of a pattern could be sneaky good if it doesn’t amp too much and run inland. That looks like higher ratio snow.

Snowman wasn’t right about it being east based, but he was correct about the strength. We are already at 1.9 ONI on the trimonthly, and unless the Nino rapidly weakens over the next couple of weeks NDJ is breaking 2.0, making this officially a super nino.

yeah, it’s tough to maintain a snowpack through 2 consecutive power cutters. The big problem is the trough out west, leading to lows gaining latitude in the Midwest. The good news is that some of the long range guidance has that trough turning into a ridge, but in my opinion the 16-17th threat is likely to run inland because the western ridge axis is so far west. That’s why I am not discounting the 0z Euro outcome at all, it fits the pattern. I like the 20-21st threat better at least for my area, im too close to the ocean and too far east to do well in these hugger/inland runner setups.

That’s very short term thinking, what good is a foot of snow if it all melts away 2 days later? That’s why temps matter, if you can’t get sustained cold you won’t be able to build a snowpack. Just looking at snow totals isnt the correct way to evaluate how severe a winter is. There is a HUGE difference between an average snow winter that is 3 degrees AN and average snow with 3 degrees BN.

What’s with all the doom and gloom? The Euro has a 970s mb low plowing into New England for the 16-17th threat, isn’t that exciting?

In this coming pattern coastal areas are playing with fire due to how far west the western ridge axis is on the models. It is a hell of a lot better than anything we had in December and last year though.

Where did my snow go? I don’t have very much, only 3 or so inches. Damn it, I need to move north.

It’s snowing here, but man it’s toasty out. 34 degrees here with not much accumulation yet. Hoping those temps cool off.

If the HREF is right there will be a lot if busted forecasts in SE Mass. Nobody is forecasting anything close to a foot here.

I have no idea what to expect…. What would you say a realistic range for my area is based on obs and the latest guidance? I was thinking around 6-7 inches this morning due to the north trend, now not sure.

In my opinion both the 10th and 13th are cutting. Yeah we have blocking but those storms are crashing into the Pacific Northwest. When energy is crashing into the Pacific Northwest, it dives south and goes neutral over the plains. Then it goes negative over the Midwest. When the trough goes negative, storms WILL gain latitude.

Eh, it sucks but that’s climo. The pattern and storm track favors NW areas, not SE Mass.

You were 5-10 in Boston right? 10 is unlikely but the lower end of that looks pretty good.

These types of storms are always fun to track. Realistically a case could be made for me to end up with anywhere from a slushy 3-4 inches to a foot. Models will continue wobbling, but we won’t know for sure how this plays out until the storm is right on top of us.

Yeah, I can tell how the models look before looking at them just by seeing who’s posting. If I see Torch Tiger making a bunch of posts about how excited he is for the upcoming pattern, I know it’s about to get really warm with flooding rains. Imo both 1/10 and 1/13 are cooked down here, but NNE could do well.

Gonna need to fire up a thread for the 2nd massive cutter coming up on the 13th soon!

Yeah, just use xvideos or pornhub. No buffering, high quality and you won’t get viruses.

It’s locked in, there WILL be a burial in Foxborough on Sunday.

I see a low over my noggin.

Way north

Torch Tiger wants us to rain

I’m thinking 10-15 here, it’s coming.