George001

Yeah as someone who has been reading your blogs for years I’m going to disagree with that. You did reference his work, but you made sure to name him and give him credit. There really isn’t anything wrong with that.

Speaking of Raindance it’s a shame he’s gone. I was not a fan of his idea that you shouldn’t use the work of others (I am a big believer in the idea that incredible insights are developed by standing on the shoulders of giants, as Issac Newton once said). Although his bedside manner left a lot to be desired at times, he knew his shit and I learned a lot from him.

I appreciate the recognition, after all those failed blizzard calls I decided to read up more, educate myself and try to be as objective as possible. I still have my biases, but I find it a lot more rewarding putting in the work to learn from all the great posters on these long range threads such as yourself, Raindance, Bluewave, Snowman, GaWx, Don, Chuck etc rather than just wishcasting. It is a science board after all, the point is the pursuit of knowledge and truth. All that being said, the old weenie George is not dead. When the time is right (as in large scale cross guidance AND pattern support for a blizzard, NOT one or two rouge OP runs in the mid or long range), the weenie side of me will come to life again in the tracking thread. The days of me hyping up every fart in the atmosphere to be a Boston blizzard though? Those days are long gone. I’d rather appreciate the winter of 2014-2015 for what it was, a once in a lifetime event rather than setting myself up to be disappointed by having unrealistic expectations about my climo.

This is correct. It has been warm CONUS wide, but the core of the warmth has been centered over the plains. We aren’t seeing a trough out west with storms barreling into the Pacific Northwest like the last 2 falls (that pattern then continued into winter, leading to back to back ratters). For the NAO…. Im not sure it will be a good or bad thing yet. The signals are fairly strong for a +NAO winter, but that doesn’t tell us anything in itself. The -NAO patterns we had in recent years have been bad for the east because they have been south based events that linked up with the SE ridge. A raging north based raging +NAO where the cold is bottled up over the pole is obviously bad (this is what happened in 19-20, 01-02, etc), while a south based +NAO can actually be a good thing depending on where you live (14-15, 13-14, 07-08, 92-93 and 93-94 all had south based +NAOs).

In the later frames it gives my area an ice storm

Interesting, in the latest IRI update on ENSO the spread has decreased significantly and the mean has converged around a -0.5 ONI peak

That’s really interesting, I didn’t know rapid SAI could do that. That’s a great example of how simplifying things to rapid SAI = cold and snowy for the east, paltry SAI= warm and less snowy isn’t accurate. Things are a lot more complicated than that. We know right now the SAI is high, but whether or not that will be a good thing for the east remains to be seen.

Good question, my explanation is while there is something to the SAI theory, the correlation with the AO/NAO is much weaker than Cohen implies. From what I’ve seen though, during high SAI advance years we do see more PV disruptions (we saw the PV stretched south of a typical strong PV in 14-15 and 13-14), regardless of the overall strength of the PV and NAO phase. When it comes to the NAO/AO, the high solar/high geomag combo favors a strong PV/+NAO/+AO pattern. High geomag in particular has a strong correlation (>.7 r^2 value) to the NAO. I don’t know the exact r^2 value for the correlation between SAI and NAO, but I suspect it is much lower. So make no mistake, I’m still on board with a strong PV/+NAO/+AO winter, but I do think the vortex will be more susceptible to being displaced south than is typical for a strong PV/+NAO/+AO winter. This does not invalidate the 07-08 analog AT ALL. If anything, it strengthens it as this south based +NAO was seen during the 07-08 winter (my #1 analog).

I don’t see 15-16 as a good example of the SAI being complete BS, but I do see it as a good example of it being overrated in that it did what it was supposed to do, but other factors (mainly ENSO) were stronger drivers. It did what it was supposed to do, in Jan and Feb of that winter the PV was displaced south with periods of blocking. But again, the super Nino was the primary driver that winter. I do agree with you that the hype should not have been off the charts. I have no idea why Cohen forecasted an arctic cold winter during the 2015-2016 winter regardless of what the SAI did. 2015-2016 was the strongest El Niño winter on record, when ENSO gets that strong that trumps SAI every time. Even if last winter had a record high SAI, I still would have gone mild with below normal snowfall for my area due to the high end strong Nino, -PDO, and the parade of storms crashing into the Pacific Northwest during the fall.

To an extent yes, but I don’t think it’s completely meaningless. In my opinion it was overrated in the mid 2010s when some were considering it to be a silver bullet to winter forecasting where more Siberian snow cover = colder and snowier winters in the east. It isn’t that simple, never is. The takeaway I’m getting from it is an increased risk of the polar vortex being displaced south rather than consolidated over the North Pole. Yet, there are conflicting signals. The high solar and high geomag supports a +NAO pattern with a stronger polar vortex. The reason this interests me is what other years with rapid Siberian snow cover advance did during high solar/geomag years in the polar region. In 14-15, we had the rare combination of a strong polar vortex that was also displaced south. Make no mistake, these were still +NAO winters so it didn’t exactly prove Cohens theory correct (rapid Siberian snow cover advance = weaker polar vortex and -NAO/-AO). The big takeaway for me is while this is not a reason to go all Joe Bastardi and forecast well BN temps in the east with 200% of normal snow up and down 1-95 (cannot just ignore what’s going on with the pacific. I have gotten burned doing that one too many times and won’t make the same mistake again) its still worth looking at. I wouldn’t take this as a reason to forecast a -NAO (especially given that previous examples of high Siberian snow cover advancement with high solar/geomag were still +NAO winters, some even strongly +NAO). I’m thinking more along the lines of an +NAO winter with the vortex displaced more south than usual (this happened in 07-08, 14-15, 13-14, 92-93, and 93-94). Now…. All of this may not matter if the Siberian snow cover advance slows down and finishes around average. The month is not over so that’s still very possible. Just a week ago the Siberian snow cover advance was running below normal.

Siberian snow cover is advancing rapidly, the quickest pace since October 2014. According to Cohens research, rapid advance of the Siberian snow cover is linked to -AO pattern during winter and a weaker polar vortex. It is especially interesting that this is happening in a year with a fairly strong +NAO and +AO signal (high solar, high geomag, etc).

The big thing with the fall pattern is it has been fairly dry for most of the US. It has also been warmer than average throughout the CONUS, with most of the warmth centered over the plains. So I plan to look to falls that have a similar temp profile and precip profile across the conus and adjust my analogs accordingly. I’m actually not sure what it will look like yet. I do want to see the 1st half of November first though.

The MJO often is a big driver, especially at higher amplitudes. Over the next couple weeks, the MJO is expected to pass through phases 4-6 which is warm for the east. It is unclear how long the MJO will remain in those phases, whether it goes into the COD or into 7,8 and then 1, what the amplitude is, etc. Just way too many unknowns right now and that is just with the MJO.

I have seen (I believe it was Eric Fisher who posted this graph) graphs showing that there is a decent correlation between November temps and seasonal snowfall in Boston (I suspect this is related to the November pattern persisting into December and potentially early Jan). Personally, I do believe it matters. There are exceptions to every rule and it’s not a death sentence for winter if November is warm, but I would rather have a cold November than a warm one. It’s October temps that don’t have much correlation one way or another. It would be a bad sign if the long range guidance for November ends up being correct, but fortunately for winter enthusiasts long range guidance is extremely unreliable.

I would go 2 warm and 2 cool, Dec-Jan BN and Feb-Mar AN. I would not forecast below normal temps though unless the signal for a cold/snowy winter was extreme like it was going into the 2014-2015 winter. I don’t think it’s bad luck or anything that we had 9 AN winters in a row, it’s climate change. This more than just me bitching about how horrible it’s been since the super Nino, even the good winters we had were AN temp wise. 2017-2018 is considered to be a severe winter with periods of extreme cold and snow by many, and it really was. It was downright frigid during that Dec-mid Jan stretch. March was an all out snow blitz, I got so much snow during that month that a big tree collapsed under the weight of the snow and had to be removed. yet, even the severe 2017-2018 winter averaged AN temps simply due to the extreme magnitude of the warm periods when the pattern became unfavorable in Feb. What may have been +3 or +4 anomalies decades ago are now +7 to +8, and you see extreme shit like 70+ degrees in Feb. So even in an “average” up and down type of winter with a couple AN months and a couple BN months (where I’m expecting this winter to be), you are looking at AN temps simply due to the magnitude of the warmth when the pattern is unfavorable exceeding the magnitude of the cold when things get favorable. So despite me being more optimistic than most about this winter, I still am going with AN temps. Especially with how warm the ocean temps are (which could amplify SE ridging), 1 month of MJO camping in phases 4-6 can undo 2 months of BN anomalies.

It would not be good for winter (often what happens in November is a sign of things to come) but I would take what the models are saying about November with a grain of salt. Too far away

I’m skeptical of a cold Feb too but I’m more optimistic about December and January. I agree about December being a sign of things to come, usually in La Niña winters winter shows its hand early.

Makes sense, -PDO, strengthening GOA cold pool and recent uptick in tropical activity is consistent with a strengthening La Niña background state. It’s strange, with these observations you would expect a much stronger ONI response. Makes me wonder if there is a risk that the ONI plummets way more than expected, like a solidly moderate ONI peak or even close to strong. I’m not expecting that given where the ONI is currently at (sticking to my -0.8 to -1 call), but it is something that crossed my mind as a potential wild card factor for this winter.

It’s interesting how disgusted the mid Atlantic posters are about the thought of a 2007-2008 winter redux. I say bring it on, often when they rain we snow. That’s exactly how it went down that year.

Now this is a great example of why a pattern being “good” or “bad” means a completely different thing depending who who’s posting it. 07-08 in particular had an extremely sharp snowfall gradient. We all live in different areas, so we have different perspectives on what constitutes a good vs bad winter. For me, I live in SNE and I ski so I prefer areas farther north to do well too. Good winter for me, record breaking good for ski areas. So I have zero issues with 07-08 and if I could sign a lifetime contract that guaranteed an 07-08 redux every year, I would do it instantly.

I would prefer 07-08 to 20-21. 07-08 was honestly straight up better than 20-21 for my area, it was snowier and a bit colder. 20-21 the best snows were south and west of SNE. My range for best and worst case scenarios is wider. Best case for my area I would say 2010-2011 redux, worst case 2022-2023 redux. I don’t think either of these scenarios is particularly likely, it would be foolish to forecast such an extreme outcome at this point. But that’s the range of outcomes. I’m thinking average to slightly above average snow for my area at this point, nothing too crazy in either direction.

07-08 was a great winter in New England especially for ski areas. It was decent for SNE too, then sharp cut off south. I would consider that to be a successful winter.

Agree. I’m not putting any stock into what the polar vortex is doing one way or another until December.

Looks like we are going to end up at roughly 140 before the next lull. The average ACE increase from now until the end of hurricane season is roughly 20, so that would put us at around 160 ACE by the end of the hurricane season. We probably will fall short, but I’m starting to think there is a very real shot at going over 180. Likely? No, but stranger things have happened.

Agreed the pattern was not too late at all, it just wasn’t a favorable enough pattern. The epic March 2018 pattern set in just as late but that didn’t matter, it still worked out.