George001

Welp, it’s over for this threat. Gfs has fully caved to the Euro. Unfortunately it looks like the burying energy out west idea will end up being correct. I’ve been burned one too many times, for the rest of the winter I’m not buying in on any nor’easter and or blizzard potential until I literally see the snow on the ground. Lighter events sure, those are easier to get. But everything needs to go right to get a blizzard, that’s true even in good patterns. Sometimes you just end up cold and dry, and it looks like that will be the case for January.

I average about 40 inches, I’m taking the under on that. Probably going to end up with around half of that.

I’m at the point where I am rooting for the La Niña to take over and for the SE ridge to flex.

I was optimistic about this pattern but that is changing now that we are on the verge of whiffing 2 decent storm chances to the south. Can’t sugarcoat this, going into mid to late Jan with nothing in a La Niña is bad news. Even if Feb is somewhat snowy to start, at this point a below average snow winter is extremely likely.

Bring it on. Need something to shift the storm track north.

I’ll pass on these 2-4/3-6 solutions. Wasted potential doesn’t sit right with me, it’s difficult to get excited about half a foot of snow when there is always the what if…. It could have been so much more.

Yep, weak shredded garbage again. Not going to cut it

Weak sauce

1-3/2-4 = garbage. This had the potential to be big if the fucking energy out west ejected faster. I am officially out on this “threat”

Yeah the Euro still holds way too much energy back. The issue is we are getting closer to a middle ground solution, but needed yesterday’s gfs runs to be entirely right. A middle ground solution doesn’t cut it.

Yeah not a fan of the 12z gfs. Looks weak and shredded

After seeing those earlier gfs runs a light event would be disappointing. It’s blizzard or bust

I’m not giving up yet but need to see only improvements from here. It’s close enough to the event that you don’t really want to see any steps back.

Gefs still on board despite the OP looking like shit.

It will be very disappointing if the Euro is right. I have been waiting long enough, I want my goddamn blizzard!

Agreed. I like that the gfs doubled down, but want to see the Euro join the party tonight. It’s a very complicated setup.

I like seeing snows fairly close to the coast despite an unfavorable low track. Shows that we have some room for error here.

im not sure, but the low is south due to the energy getting buried out west.

On another forum I’m on they have access to the Euro and unfortunately it isn’t good news. The Euro buried the energy once again.

I’d like to see the Euro bump north tonight with the low

I’d rather have a repeat of March 2017 than this. Hopefully the Euro is more north.

The issue with 21-22 is that was more of an east based La Niña. This is a modoki La Niña with the core of the cold focused west, while the eastern ENSO regions have warmer anomalies. So although 21-22 isnt a bad match for strength, I would say 08-09 and 16-17 are better ENSO analogs due to how they developed (modoki rather than east based).

EPS also made a big jump NW. Very strong signal

967mb low stalls about 50 miles NW of the benchmark

Yeah I don’t expect either of us to be the bullseye in this type of setup, that will likely be NW of us. I would rather this than another southern slider though, decent snows on the front end before going over to mix and or rain. If I get 6 inches and 20 miles NW gets 2 feet, so be it. The ski areas need the snow anyways. Hopefully we can get lucky and get a low track 25-50 or so miles SE of where the GFS has it.