George001

I have my shovel ready

Snow is starting to stick to roads here

Adam, although we have seen additional cooling over the past couple of weeks, the La Niña will end up being fairly weak overall. The pattern has not really been very Nina like so far this December, and we are actually seeing guidance show an active STJ for early Jan. While I do agree that we will see a pattern shift as the Nina peaks (recent trends have opened the door for this to peak as a weak Nina, similar to 08-09), my early thoughts are we could see more of a stormy north/south gradient type pattern rather than a full on east torch especially if the STJ remains active. The seasonal guidance shows this with both the temp and precip distribution for Jan-Mar (though Jan is warm everywhere, likely due to the first couple of weeks before the transition from a strong nino like pattern to a Nina one). What are your thoughts?

I like how things look on the radar and OBS. It’s currently snowing out, already have a coating.

Even the CMC is more aggressive than the 1-2 I’m being forecasted. It gives me 4-5 inches or so.

Nope, the NAM has support. The gfs made a big shift NW at 12z. NAM is good inside 24 hours, so I’m not ignoring it. Am I expecting the 10 inches of snow it gives me? No, but there is a real change at a big positive bust here.

I would go as far as saying even verbatim Jan 2011 isn’t walking through the door. The airmass was a lot colder in Jan 2011, we had lows hugging the coast delivering blizzard conditions to NYC and Boston. Typically NYC and Boston both have ptype issues with that low track. A more unfavorable airmass doesn’t necessarily mean things can’t work anyways, but we won’t have the room for error we did in 2011 in regards to storm track.

Now it absolutely deserves to be shit on but it looked better a few days ago. Trends just didn’t go our way.

No beef, just giving him shit lol. At this point I agree with him about this threat not being a big deal, not buying the NAM.

Although the past few years have been rough, he bitches his way to jackpotting way too often. It’s just not right ya know? To be fair to him, he isn't entirely wrong to dump on this threat. The guidance outside the NAM isn’t very impressive. I’m not expecting more than a coating to 2 inches for my area either.

You have done nothing but shit on this threat, so I hope you rain. Yes, I’m aware I would probably rain too but I’m ok with that. I would light myself on fire to prevent you from getting snow.

I’m not a fan of the early Jan look for New England. The blocking is more south based on guidance like recent winters rather than say 2010-2011.

I’m the other way around. I’m sick of these garbage ass post 2016 marginal air masses, give me those early 2010s air masses and I’ll take my chances with precip.

It is, but my worry is that it is more like 20-21 where the air masses are marginal rather than the early 2010s. 20-21 was fine snow wise, but it wasn’t that cold. I don’t like seeing all that warmth in Canada.

I’m not a fan of how far south the blocking is for early Jan. Surface temps are also AN here, I’d like to see real cold before I jump on board.

My issue is it’s the NAM outside 24 hours. Not having the globals on board is a big red flag

Yeah I’m out on more than a couple of inches at most. We had a shot at a bigger storm but things didn’t pan out. The north trend has not continued since 0z.

I liked what I saw from the 0z globals tonight. Models are still too far east but I like the overall setup for my area.

I’d like to see globals show something similar to this NAM run tonight. Even a bit worse would be fine.

I’m in on this threat. Don’t care for the NAM too much this far out, but the other guidance was close enough that it’s worth watching for a plowable snow in my area with another bump north. These 0z runs are going to be big, can’t have any steps back.

Models took a big jog north with the low offshore

Although I am more optimistic about this threat than most, I do agree that the MECS/HECS solutions are off the table. I wouldn’t expect more than 6-12 inches for the jackpot areas even if everything breaks right. Why? Although the western ridge axis is in an ideal spot, it’s significantly less amplified than it was in setups like late Jan 2022, late Jan 2015, late Dec 2010, etc. But you can’t write off a moderate event, just can’t do it. Even if things don’t look great 2 days out, remember the first storm in Jan 2022? Guidance was fairly weak with that even the night before the storm.

Yep. The thing about the Navy is it has a known SE/progressive bias. So when it’s the most amped that’s a huge red flag. I still want to see more improvements from other guidance before I jump the gun, but it is way too early to write this off. I like the large scale players, the western ridge axis is centered over Montana which is ideal for east coast cyclogenesis. There is a high to the north in the 1030s, that’s a strong high. We are still 5 days out, that’s a long time in weather. Don’t expect a truly high end outcome, but it wouldn’t take massive changes in guidance to get moderate snows for my area.

Yeah we aren’t getting 2 feet from this but it’s way too early to give up on a decent storm. We have gotten moderate events from worse setups. This isn’t far away from being something decent for us.

It’s a similar setup to Jan 2022. Ensembles have a signal, too far out for OPs so I don’t really care that they aren’t showing a storm.