George001

Recently the pattern has shifted to a colder one that is northern stream dominated. With this, the models have been showing a shortwave diving down out of central Canada into the CONUS. The clipper has been trending a bit stronger on some recent runs, if that continues and it digs a bit farther south there is potential for explosive miller B redevelopment. The signal for explosive miller B cyclogenesis isn’t particularly strong right now, but it’s worth keeping an eye on. Even if that doesn’t happen, this will likely produce a light to moderate snowfall for many areas.

Wow

Anthony and I have been tracking the Dec 5 clipper threat for about a week now on another weather board. It has been on and off guidance but the signal is there.

Just like that the clipper that was offshore for a couple runs is back on the 18z gfs.

I agree. The MJO is projected to be weak amplitude, not really a pattern driver like it has been in recent years. This year the projected pattern looks more similar to some of the early to mid 2010s rather than the post 2015 winters.

The whole there is nothing to track thing isn’t true. There is a clipper threat for around the 4-5th, then a miller B threat around the 7th-8th, then possibly a miller A for the 11-12th time period.

No, negativity is fine when it’s justified. It’s not justified for this upcoming pattern. There is no guarantee of success, but it would take some shitty luck to not score in this upcoming pattern. We might get a clipper in early Dec. A CLIPPER! Isn’t that exciting?

Miller B threat?

I wouldn’t say last years Nino resembled a moderate event. The temp and precip profile resembled the borderline super Nino composite. The subtropical jet in particular was extremely strong, the big difference was the lack of a raging GOA low, so in that aspect it differed. We also saw more MJO in the maritime phases than is typical of a Nino this strong. It was most similar to some of the older analogs like 57-58 and 72-73, but ended up being much warmer since the climate is much warmer now.

I agree that there are a couple of flaws, but overall things look good. The small details will change for better or worse. If anything, the western ridge axis is a bit west of ideal for the classic benchmark track. Ideally for coastal areas we want it centered over Montana, for the Dec 5 time period it’s centered over Washington. I would actually be more optimistic for your area than mine if a storm were to pop up due to this.

I would rather have snow too but cold and dry is better than having above average temps during the winter. There is nothing worse than above normal temps during the winter. That said, one moderate snow event would make a huge difference. Given the BN temps, the snow would stick around for a while.

And even if it is just cold and dry…. That’s a hell of a lot better than the abomination we had last year. I want winter to feel like winter.

I don’t understand all the pessimism. Last fall it was justified, seasonal guidance had a torch for December and we had a raging Nino. This year we have seasonal guidance trending towards normal to below normal temps and we are in ENSO neutral. The long range guidance is COLD to start December. I try to be objective, I was pessimistic all of last winter and even in the fall my expectations were extremely low for the upcoming winter. Things look different this year. Sure, things look somewhat dry to start the month but all it takes is one storm with cold in place. The longer the temps are below average, the more likely we are to have something break our way.

The airmass is similar to the garbage we had the last 5 years yeah, but keep in mind it’s late November. The airmass is similar to late Jan/early Feb last year in November. That bodes well for later in the winter. We are already seeing some good signs with guidance trending colder for December.

Often winter shows its hand early. We are seeing signs of both a somewhat resilient Alaskan ridge regime and a strong PV regime. It’s early, but if this continues into winter it would lead to a -EPO/+NAO look.

The NAO is overrated. Yes storms tend to be more progressive in +NAO regimes, but what good is it if there is troughing out west and you are blocking in mild pacific air? You don’t need 36 hours of snow to get buried, a fast moving 12 hour storm in a cold regime can and has resulted in big snows. When I think of big east coast winter storms the first thing I think of is a Montana ridge, not Greenland blocking. Ultimately the pacific drives the bus.

I’m not a fan of the 29th threat outside NNE/elevations, but I am optimistic about this upcoming pattern and believe we will see some snow in December this year. We are seeing 2 things on the long range, persistent ridging over Alaska and a stronger than normal polar vortex. This is a completely different pattern than what we have seen the past 2 winters. We have been seeing a lot of -NAO/+EPO/-PNA. It looks like in December we are headed towards a -EPO/+PNA/+NAO pattern instead.

With no high to the north + the western ridge axis being west of ideal for east coast cyclogenesis I would favor a hugger or inside runner solution with rain for the coast and snow confined to NNE and elevations. The solution on the 12z Canadian is a good middle ground between the 12z Euro and 18z gfs. It fits the pattern.

Aren’t threats on the front end of a pattern chance usually more of long shots anyways? Even March 2018 the first threat ended up being a massive rainstorm with snow confined to elevations (Mar 2nd 2018). Some guidance buried us 5-6 days out but ultimately the airmass was too warm. The pattern change in Jan 2015 too, again the models showed us getting buried with 12-18 inches a week or so out and then the storm trended towards a hugger. The point is whiffing on the first storm after a pattern change is typical and doesn’t mean the pattern change failed or this is anything like the abomination that was the past 2 winters. Things will be different this year.

Gfs is a blizzard for December 5th

That’s the big question as to how this winter will go. I’d like to see 3 weeks minimum

It’s cold relative to the time of year

I would be more optimistic about getting snow from this storm if 1. I was not east of the low 2. it wasn’t raining outside

In regards to the winter it looks like we dodged a bullet in regards to ENSO. The rapid warming in region 1.2 is indicative of a shift toward a modoki cold ENSO pattern. That’s an unfavorable structure but ENSO is so weak it likely won’t matter, if we had that shift to a modoki but with a moderate to strong La Niña like the models showed in spring to early summer that would have been bad news. There are a wide range of possibilities, but unlike last year we are in the game. Last year was cooked from the start.

I’d rather have cold and dry than warm. At least if it’s cold and dry the ski resorts can make snow.