George001

Make me bitch

I mean for fucks sake we haven’t had a BN winter since 2014-2015. Looks like we will have a decent chance at a 9th consecutive AN winter.

Not seeing cold air on the long range guidance. Even in the very long range the BN anomalies are confined to the south. NNE is AN.

Nope don’t want to hear anything about it being “delayed”. Either it’s going to happen or it isn’t. If it doesn’t happen when we expected, instead of moving the goalposts it makes sense to just give up and admit to being wrong.

Absolutely, significantly more aggressive action needs to be taken to combat climate change. People bitch about “alarmists”, but the reality is that the earth is warming at a rate in line with the most aggressive climate models. People tend to be short sighted. The climate crisis is a consequence of the pursuit of instant gratification above all else. It’s easier to live in denial than to try to be part of the solution. Near-term sacrifices will have to be made to combat climate change, and people aren’t willing to accept that. I get it, instant gratification feels good. But in the long term, it’s not worth it. It’s not going to be good for the economy at first if we take these drastic actions, and it’s going to be a major inconvenience in many of our personal lives. However, that is not a valid excuse to refuse to take action. The inconvenience we will experience in the near term due to extremely aggressive regulations is nothing compared to the damage caused by AGW in the long run.

Reading your blog, those of us who forecasted mild below normal snow winters actually weren’t too different from some of your analogs, and we were actually aligned for December. I agree with you on January being an inflection point, that is when winter will show its hand. Seasonably cold (+1 AN or below) with AN precip for Jan would get it done. +3 AN and above average precip? That would be bad news for the coastal plain in SNE.

I have never been too optimistic about December, but I haven’t actually seen a ton of hype like last December. I went back and looked through the posts of several posters who are calling for a big pattern change late Dec-early Jan to see if there was any moving of the goalposts, and it has been consistent. Once the goalposts start moving that’s a very bad sign. It looks like the pattern change actually will happen, now the question is whether it will change to a good pattern or just a different bad pattern.

20-25th still looking good for a large scale pattern change?

It certainly would be an upgrade over a lot of previous 1st round picks we drafted

I’ll take this look over shit pacific + big blocking any day. If we see a look similar to this inside 7 days, I’ll start getting excited. I’m not surprised that the big blocking that was hyped up for December didn’t work out for the coastal plain.

Yeah snowman19 absolutely knows his shit, he just likes warmer weather.

My mid Dec update is that I am not excited about the pattern for the rest of the month for 2 reasons. One, the parade of storms entering the pacific northwest favors a storm track is NW of the region. The second reason is it is simply too warm. No matter how much blue there is at 500mb, the surface is still AN on the long range guidance. Last year’s abomination of a “winter” taught me that no matter how “good” the pattern looks at 500mb, if there isn’t any cold air it won’t lead to snow. It’s really that simple, the #1 ingredient for east coast blizzards is true arctic air. If we don’t have that, we are threading the needle or hoping for a very low probability outcome. It’s possible we sneak in a couple of inches with the follow up deal after the massive inland runner, but the pattern doesn’t really support anything more than a minor event there, and even that is going to be tough to get. The whole relying on storms to create their own cold air thing just isn’t going to cut it, especially in December when the SSTs are extremely mild. That’s why I haven’t been posting much here this month, I’m not jumping on board until I see sustained (1+ week) -5 or lower anomalies on the models. By mid Jan, that reduces to -3 to -2. In late Jan- mid Feb, normal temps with north based atlantic blocking is good enough. If I see that on the models, I will become a lot more optimistic. For now though, it is a typical strong/super nino December pattern. Overall, I would say based on how things have gone the past few weeks and what the extended guidance shows, im expecting we get shut out for the rest of the month. Even the last week of Dec, the pattern does not look good. However, there are some interesting things happening in the stratosphere. That is the main reason I’m not sounding the alarms for a total rat. The forecasted weakening of the polar vortex looks to be for real. Based on previous polar vortex events, I’m expecting an unfavorable pattern for a couple weeks after the disruption. This would take us to mid January. I said that if we get to early Jan with nothing promising on the horizon it’s time to panic, and I stand by that since by then we will know more about how this polar vortex event will play out. Hopefully the polar vortex cooperates and doesn’t go to the other side of the globe.

I’m headed up to Jay peak soon so I’m happy to see this.

Those songs have been around for a long long time. They were written during a time when the climate was cooler than it is now. That’s not cycles, it’s climate change. It makes sense, as our climate continues to warm the month that will suffer most is the winter month that is most marginal to begin with (December). When I see Atlantic ocean temps well AN like this December, im not expecting much.

It’s going to be super. It’s a when, not if.

I would take that and run. Get the best patterns during peak climo. Part of the issue with last year is when we had our “best” patterns we were fighting climo, while the heart of winter was a massive torch. Punting December isn’t ideal, but I see anything we get in December as a bonus. Punting January is really really bad.

Based on the latest data, ONI will probably peak right around 2.0 (super).

We should not ban posters who have different opinions. Some of us legitimacy believe that this will be a mild winter. I want us to get 100 inches of snow this year with a historic blizzard every week, but I don’t want to read a posts supporting that viewpoint. Objectivity is important, and without the skeptics all we will have is a bunch of cheerleaders for snow. I strongly believe that the skepticism that posters like qqomega is necessary. Sometimes we get mild winters, and we get mild patterns even in good winter. It’s ok to acknowledge that things don’t look great right now on the models. Again, I want it to snow but I’m not going to ignore the models if they aren’t showing what I want to see. There are several concerning signals such as the strength of the El Niño (1.8 trimonthly ONI for SON, likely hasn’t peaked yet), the -PDO, the raging pac jet currently in place, the current storm track, and the mild Atlantic SSTs. Those are real concerns that could derail winter and lead to a second straight ratter. However, there are also a couple of favorable signals. The polar vortex is expected to significantly weaken on the models, and while the nino is stronger than we would like to see, it is strengthening in the western regions. Over the past month it shifted from east based to basinwide. If it becomes west based, that could result in a more favorable outcome in January and February. The way I see it, there are more negative than positive signals right now so qqomegas concern is valid. Hopefully the positives end up outweighing the negatives.

That winter was a once in a lifetime event. Statistically it is extremely unlikely it will happen again, but I am thankful that I had the chance to experience that. The old George that loved severe blizzards is not gone. I still love the cold and snow, I’m just not going to be expecting a blizzard for every shortwave that enters the CONUS. That just isn’t a realistic expectation. If there is a blizzard on the on the short range guidance with strong cross guidance support, I’m going to be all over it.

I don’t agree. The guidance constantly delaying the pattern change usually means it’s not going to happen. If we are still seeing storms entering the Pacific Northwest by then and the PDO is still solidly negative, I’m not going to be optimistic. I haven’t even written winter off yet. I also think that people panicking and writing winter off because December looks warm are jumping the gun. Like you said, in El Niño you lose Dec. That’s the way it goes even in good nino winters. I do think this winter will show its hand by early Jan. Does that mean if we don’t get buried as soon as the calendar flips winter is doomed? No, but if the background state (-PDO, unfavorable MJO, storms entering the Pacific Northwest) doesn’t improve and the guidance over the next 2 weeks is showing a sea of warmth, that’s not good.

2014-2015 is an extreme anomaly. Yes ninos are backloaded, but in good nino winters you punt Dec. You do not punt Dec and Jan. In Jan 2015, the pattern was bad early on but there were promising signs and an extremely favorable background state (raging +PDO, weak El Niño). It hasn’t happened yet, but kicking the can is usually a sign that it’s not going to happen. The timeframe being talked about is early Jan, if things look good by then I’ll get excited, if not then I’m writing off winter as a dud. By looking good it doesn’t necessarily mean immediate snow. If we have a cold pattern inside 7 days by like Jan 5th despite not having any snow on the ground, good. If we have no snow AND warmth is dominating the long range guidance, I don’t see how you can objectively look at how things are going and NOT be concerned.

Fair enough, but we aren’t kicking the can this winter. If things look good by then and we have an event on the horizon, then I’ll be excited. If we get to early Jan with nothing on the horizon then its time to write winter off as a rat. I don’t think that’s too unreasonable.

Yep, that’s the way it goes in El Niño. In La Nina’s, you lose February. In Ninos, you lose December. The timeframe I am hearing on several sub forums is late Dec-early Jan. If we get skunked in early Jan and there is nothing on the horizon, then it’s time to panic and call for a ratter. We won’t truly know until then what this winter is made of.

Uh oh, Torch Tiger is excited. That’s a telltale sign that the models trended unfavorably.

I don’t understand how unfavorable MJO states are inherently a Nina pattern, and also why is a Nina pattern inherently bad? The MEI averaged -1.9 for Dec 2010-Jan 2011, and the trimonthly ONI for NDJ was -1.6. That was a well coupled strong La Niña, yet it was still a very cold and snowy winter in New England. Historically, Ninos (especially stronger ones and ones with significant nino 4 warming) are mild in December, and Ninas are colder and snowier. Ninos tend to be more backloaded.