George001

2 lows

Yep. The best way to do this is to go in with no expectations about the winter, and try to be as objective as possible. It’s really not easy to do so unfortunately. I’m not very good at it myself, it’s hard to not be biased when you heavily prefer a certain type of weather. Both 10-11 and 22-23 have value as analogs, but opposite winter outcomes. I’m not convinced the outcome of the winter matters when assessing analog validity. There is just too much randomness (luck) involved in individual outcomes to be able to properly evaluate whether a winter succeeded/failed due to just a couple lucky/unlucky breaks or the large scale pattern being a certain way. Also, some of the things being touted as a strong signal for a bad winter (+NAO) vs good winter (-NAO) are overstated especially for more northern posters. The nao r^2 correlation to temps for my area for example is -.2, which is very weak. Can’t just say it will be a +NAO or -NAO and draw all kinds of conclusions about what the winter will or will not look like based on that.

Yeah I wouldn’t choose any of those as my top analogs either, but I do think there is an important distinction to make. I don’t think there is anything terribly wrong with 13-14, 20-21 and 10-11. I wouldn’t weigh them as heavily as 2022-2023 and 2007-2008, but I do think they have some value as analogs. 95-96, 17-18 and 83-84 absolutely not. If anything, 95-96, 17-18 and 83-84 are such horrible analogs they may have more utility than the first 3 years by including them but as anti logs. Especially 95-96, that was a raging +PDO and east based Nina and I’m pretty sure solar is also opposite to this year. I don’t even think Joe Bastardi is using 95-96 as an analog.

Completely agree with all of this. You can nitpick any analog, but dismissing the bigger picture because a couple minor details don’t match would be a mistake. Yeah the ACE might be a bit higher and we are coming off a strong Nino instead of a moderate Nina, but I don’t see that as a good reason to discount 2022-2023. It’s an excellent match for ENSO strength, warm Atlantic, ENSO structure, and the strong -PDO. Another big factor that 2022-2023 has going for it is climate change (2022-2023 was only 2 years ago, so a more similar climate to today than older analogs). Thats not something that should be ignored just because a couple other things don’t line up.

In my opinion 90 is too low, I’m thinking around 120-130. I could be wrong though, I expected 200+ ACE before the season started and that clearly isn’t going to happen. You had the right idea, good call with the skepticism of a hyperactive season. The gfs is fairly aggressive but like you and Raindance said, fairly big hole to climb out of.

I have 2022-2023 as my #1 analog right now mainly due to the extreme -PDO, solar, and I like the ENSO match for both strength and structure (moderate modoki). However, I do agree that 07-08 is also a good analog (my #2 annalog) and that the Atlantic hurricane season is closer to 07-08 than 22-23. It’s too early to make a forecast but I’m definitely going to heavily weight both of those years and do a blend of some sort with other years that I like.

I remember having a debate about whether the 22-23 disaster was more bad luck or a shit pattern. Well, a lot of the background factors heading into winter look quite similar this year, so there is a decent chance this winter will help answer that question.

I’m not sure if the uptick in hurricane activity is related to this or not, but La Niña development has taken off recently. The La Niña is also becoming more central based with significant cooling in the ENSO 3.4 region. ENSO 4 has been cooling as well, I am starting to think a modoki is possible (which is why 22-23 looks like a pretty good analog right now).

The hurricane season was written off too early, we just had a category 4 landfall in Florida and there is another one on its heels on the gfs. Will it be a 200+ ACE season like many initially thought? Probably too late for that, but 150 is very possible as a high end outcome if the gfs has the right idea (although I do think it will be less than that because the other guidance is less aggressive). I do not think this will be a severe hurricane season, but that doesn’t mean it will be a low ACE year either. It’s probably going to end up somewhere around average to a bit above.

Chances of category 5 at landfall?

ONI close to -1 (around -.9 peak) imo. I don’t buy the ENSO neutral projections, Nino 3.4 has been rapidly dropping in recent weeks and is already -.5 on the weeklies. The stronger projections for this Nina make sense given how things have developed lately.

I have been following off and on the past couple of days. A couple days ago I saw the models had the low deepening to the 980s or 970s, but it’s already in the 970s now and is still over a day from expected landfall. It appears that the models drastically underestimated the strength of the low.

Agree, the probability of a +PDO this winter is equivalent to the probability of the Patriots winning the superbowl this year.

I buy the general idea (a sharp gradient of AN snows north of that and BN snows south). However, a 500 mile shift in either direction for the location of the gradient would make a huge difference.

On a science based board where the goal should be the pursuit of knowledge and truth, this matters A LOT.

This is another reason why im not a fan of the simplistic “x analog is snowy here, y analog isn’t” approach. It’s more complicated than that. Luck is a huge factor when it comes to snowfall totals. A good example is 2016-2017, that winter was something like +4 AN, yet snowfall was slightly above average. I suspect a repeat of that exact same pattern would lead to a significantly worse outcome more often than not, we just happened to cash in on just about every window of opportunity. 2022-2023 is another example but on the opposite end, repeat that pattern and I would expect a snowier outcome in December and March.

Yeah March is a winter month in New England, the blocking started in early March in 2018 too. In mid March we had a massive blizzard.

That’s where I’m at, +NAO/la Nina combo isn’t ideal, but it’s not a death sentence. I’m more concerned about avoiding MJO 4-6 for at least half of the winter. Even a -NAO isn’t guaranteed snow if the pacific doesn’t cooperate. Can’t snow without sufficient cold air.

Doesn’t BOM have a warm bias? It predicted the Nino to be a super event rivaling 2016 last year. While the Nino did end up becoming a very powerful event, it was not on par with 2016/1998. It was more in line with 57-58, 72-73, etc (high end strong/low end super). This is definitely something to watch.

I stand corrected. The east coast got screwed by the low running inland but like you said there are weenies living in the Midwest who got buried. I’m pretty sure the low that rain inland late Dec bringing 60 degree temps and flooding rains to the east coast gave areas like Chicago a blizzard.

While there was definitely bad luck that EVERYONE got screwed, I don’t like that setup for my area due to the + anomalies from the blocking extending into New England. South based blocks are bad news.

I hope Snowman comes back. Say what you want about him, but the guy knows his shit and backs up all his claims. Despite being a big snow weenie myself I can appreciate a logically sound argument in favor of a mild winter. Frankly it’s bullshit that he ever was post limited to begin with. That should be restricted to low IQ posters who spout unscientific bullshit.

That makes sense. For the anti super Nino composite to work we would essentially need a super east based Nina…. Which doesn’t exist due to the mechanics of how ninas develop.

Could 2010-2011 fall in this category? Strong Nina ONI, MEI peaked at -2.4, and was still -1.8 by Dec-Jan.

Agreed, if anything if we actually do get a moderate ONI Nina we might even get a strong Nina response.