George001

Low is probably going to plow into CNE.

My other concern besides the north trends (which are obviously bad) is that the storm is getting weaker. On the snowiest runs the low deepened to the low 970s or even high 960s, on these more recent runs it’s only deepening to the low 980s or high 970s. Given the setup and the fact that it’s going to be April, we need a truly extreme storm to get big snows right to the coast. Otherwise, it’s just meh. Oh well, there’s a reason why April blizzards are so rare in my area.

And of course it’s north…… can always count on things to trend away from snow.

I’m not giving up just yet, but we need the north trend to stop NOW. If it keeps going north by 0z, I’m out.

Yep we have seen bigger shifts even inside of 2 days.

The models had my area getting 6+ until it shifted NORTH! When we need a south shift, you can count on the low to shift hundreds of miles north. That’s the non winters of 2022-2024 for you, these last 2 “winters” can go fuck themselves! It isn’t even winter anymore and we still can’t avoid the seasonal trend.

What percentage would you guys say this has of developing into a historic blizzard for all of eastern mass, similar to April 1997, March 2013, March 2018 etc? I don’t think it is likely at all (I’m leaning towards rain here) but do believe that upside exists if everything breaks right due to the strength of the low on the models.

If we can avoid attenuation in future runs this will become interesting even for areas closer to the coast.

For this to be a legitimate threat for my area, the weakening trend needs to stop now.

971 mb low over the cape with blizzard conditions in Boston

Precip type is still a question, but this looks like it’s going to be a huge storm. I would favor the interior for now but it’s worth watching.

What was 2007-2008? That could be another possible analog.

Like I said even before the start of this horrible non winter, I’ll take my chances with a strong nina over a strong or super nino any day. Strong nina is far from a death sentence in New England.

While I don’t think this Niña will be weak, that’s a good point. There is some support for a moderate event from guidance as well. For probabilities, my early thoughts are something like this for now: ENSO neutral: 5% weak Niña: 5% moderate Niña: 30% strong Niña: 60%

Let’s do this again. Last year for the El Niño, based on the poll results voters overwhelmingly favored a strong El Niño. That ended up being correct, with the official trimonthly peak being just short of 2.0C (ended up being rounded up to 2). Coming off a borderline super nino that is already beginning to weaken rapidly, both historical precedence and the current guidance favors a La Niña for next winter.

Yeah that is definitely a concern. I don’t think it will stay east based, so I’m hoping for a basin wide solution rather than a modoki.

There are already signs that La Niña is developing, the subsurface is currently -0.6 C and ENSO regions 1.2 and 3 are plummeting. Does the Niña developing this early give us some information about the likely strength next winter?

I hope he doesn’t, because if Joe Bastardi is calling for +3-4 AN, it’s gonna be +10 AN.

Yeah you nailed it with that, the early signs were bad. I never liked this winter, which is why I forecasted 20-30 inches of snow in Boston with well above normal temps back in November. Turns out I was way too snowy, Boston will end up with half of what my low end was. Next year is likely to be a 2010-2011 strength la nina.

One of the things I like about La Nina’s is you know what you are going to get with the winter by mid-late December. The good Niña winters you get buried early. If it’s a Niña and Dec torches, there’s no “oh maybe it will turn around”, it means the winter is cooked. Where as with this winter, many of us spent 2 months chasing ghosts before it became clear we were starting down a ratter. With a Niña, that false hope doesn’t exist. On the other hand if we do get snow in December, it’s a lot more fun to track storms because you know more is coming at some point.

I remember this one well, the last blizzard of the 2017-2018 winter. Haven’t had a great region wide New England winter like that since. That winter had it all, arctic air in Dec- mid Jan, multiple blizzards, and pretty good snowpack retention. There really was something for everyone, hell even Torch Tiger got in on that winter when some areas hit 80 in late Feb.

YIKES, that would be horrible. Hopefully the La Niña is more east based than that.

9 straight AN winters here.

I’m with Raindance on this. The typical strong Nino response in New England is warm and wet, and well….. it was both a historically warm and historically wet winter here. The overfitting analogy is a great one, it’s easy to think deeper analysis = better, but it doesn’t necessarily work that way. When you are training machine learning models, your accuracy actually begins decreasing after a certain point because the model begins to capture the noise rather than capture the overall trend line. It’s the same idea with this, sometimes the best way to look at it is to zoom out and look at the large scale temp and precip profiles rather than over analyze every 500mb nuance. Just to be clear, I am as guilty as anyone of overanalyzing the 500mb, so im not saying this to take a dig at others.

Yeah Im not asking for an incredible winter at this point. Give me normal temps + normal snow and I’ll be happy.