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George001

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Everything posted by George001

  1. George001
    That goddamn primary robbed me of a blizzard. It deepening so much and plowing into Wisconsin was a killer for our snow chances closer to the coast.
  2. George001
    Yep, never ever toss the NAM in these setups. That’s one of the things it’s very good it, sniffing out mid level warm layers.
  3. George001
    Damn, that gives me 4 inches of sleet
  4. George001
    The bigger issue at least for my area is the warm layer at around 700mb. That’s a big reason why the NAM 10:1 clown is giving me nearly a foot and accumulated snow depth is only giving me an inch or 2. Accumulated depth is the way to go outside of elevations and south of maybe southern VT/NH, since it’s more of a sleet setup than a snow setup. I’m thinking an inch or 2 here with mostly sleet for now, need that low to bump another 25 or so miles SE and strengthen (which is a long shot) to get more than that.
  5. George001
    NAM improved a lot, low is more south. If we can get that low to deepen 5mb more and trend another 25 or south maybe the coastal plain and lower elevations can get in on the action. Either way, during the first half of the storm it looks like it’s going to be a mess here. Starts as rain, then changes to sleet and quite a bit of it, then maybe some snow at the end.
  6. George001
    The subsurface is already down to around -.8C, early signs appear to be pointing to a strong event.
  7. George001
    Gfs looks more north unfortunately
  8. George001
    That would be an…… interesting commute in the Boston area.
  9. George001
    And then the low plows into southern NH lol. Still south of last run, so I am not completely out of the game for big snows just yet.
  10. George001
    Low trended south, it went from being over extreme nw Mass to central CT. Ultimately I am still east of the low, but I like what I’m seeing on this run.
  11. George001
    Let’s get that heavy snow axis to shift 50 miles SE
  12. George001
    This certainly isn’t good news for those looking for big snows. I wouldn’t discount it at all, the NAM is VERY good at picking up warm layers like that. Anecdotally it seems like when it’s NAM vs the cooler globals in these types of setups, the NAM is right more often than not.
  13. George001
    It would be nice if we get the stronger lows like Fridays runs too.
  14. George001
    The low is way too weak. It needs to deepen to the low 970s.
  15. George001
    Canadian is still south
  16. George001
    Gfs way north again
  17. George001
    If only there was some kind of weather control device that could physically stop the low from moving north. The way things are trending the low will be over Greenland by Wednesday.
  18. George001
    Low is probably going to plow into CNE.
  19. George001
    My other concern besides the north trends (which are obviously bad) is that the storm is getting weaker. On the snowiest runs the low deepened to the low 970s or even high 960s, on these more recent runs it’s only deepening to the low 980s or high 970s. Given the setup and the fact that it’s going to be April, we need a truly extreme storm to get big snows right to the coast. Otherwise, it’s just meh. Oh well, there’s a reason why April blizzards are so rare in my area.
  20. George001
    And of course it’s north…… can always count on things to trend away from snow.
  21. George001
    I’m not giving up just yet, but we need the north trend to stop NOW. If it keeps going north by 0z, I’m out.
  22. George001
    Yep we have seen bigger shifts even inside of 2 days.
  23. George001
    The models had my area getting 6+ until it shifted NORTH! When we need a south shift, you can count on the low to shift hundreds of miles north. That’s the non winters of 2022-2024 for you, these last 2 “winters” can go fuck themselves! It isn’t even winter anymore and we still can’t avoid the seasonal trend.
  24. George001
    What percentage would you guys say this has of developing into a historic blizzard for all of eastern mass, similar to April 1997, March 2013, March 2018 etc? I don’t think it is likely at all (I’m leaning towards rain here) but do believe that upside exists if everything breaks right due to the strength of the low on the models.
  25. George001
    If we can avoid attenuation in future runs this will become interesting even for areas closer to the coast.
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