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George001

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Everything posted by George001

  1. George001
    Gfs looks more north unfortunately
  2. George001
    That would be an…… interesting commute in the Boston area.
  3. George001
    And then the low plows into southern NH lol. Still south of last run, so I am not completely out of the game for big snows just yet.
  4. George001
    Low trended south, it went from being over extreme nw Mass to central CT. Ultimately I am still east of the low, but I like what I’m seeing on this run.
  5. George001
    Let’s get that heavy snow axis to shift 50 miles SE
  6. George001
    This certainly isn’t good news for those looking for big snows. I wouldn’t discount it at all, the NAM is VERY good at picking up warm layers like that. Anecdotally it seems like when it’s NAM vs the cooler globals in these types of setups, the NAM is right more often than not.
  7. George001
    It would be nice if we get the stronger lows like Fridays runs too.
  8. George001
    The low is way too weak. It needs to deepen to the low 970s.
  9. George001
    Canadian is still south
  10. George001
    Gfs way north again
  11. George001
    If only there was some kind of weather control device that could physically stop the low from moving north. The way things are trending the low will be over Greenland by Wednesday.
  12. George001
    Low is probably going to plow into CNE.
  13. George001
    My other concern besides the north trends (which are obviously bad) is that the storm is getting weaker. On the snowiest runs the low deepened to the low 970s or even high 960s, on these more recent runs it’s only deepening to the low 980s or high 970s. Given the setup and the fact that it’s going to be April, we need a truly extreme storm to get big snows right to the coast. Otherwise, it’s just meh. Oh well, there’s a reason why April blizzards are so rare in my area.
  14. George001
    And of course it’s north…… can always count on things to trend away from snow.
  15. George001
    I’m not giving up just yet, but we need the north trend to stop NOW. If it keeps going north by 0z, I’m out.
  16. George001
    Yep we have seen bigger shifts even inside of 2 days.
  17. George001
    The models had my area getting 6+ until it shifted NORTH! When we need a south shift, you can count on the low to shift hundreds of miles north. That’s the non winters of 2022-2024 for you, these last 2 “winters” can go fuck themselves! It isn’t even winter anymore and we still can’t avoid the seasonal trend.
  18. George001
    What percentage would you guys say this has of developing into a historic blizzard for all of eastern mass, similar to April 1997, March 2013, March 2018 etc? I don’t think it is likely at all (I’m leaning towards rain here) but do believe that upside exists if everything breaks right due to the strength of the low on the models.
  19. George001
    If we can avoid attenuation in future runs this will become interesting even for areas closer to the coast.
  20. George001
    For this to be a legitimate threat for my area, the weakening trend needs to stop now.
  21. George001
    971 mb low over the cape with blizzard conditions in Boston
  22. George001
    Precip type is still a question, but this looks like it’s going to be a huge storm. I would favor the interior for now but it’s worth watching.
  23. George001
    What was 2007-2008? That could be another possible analog.
  24. George001
    Like I said even before the start of this horrible non winter, I’ll take my chances with a strong nina over a strong or super nino any day. Strong nina is far from a death sentence in New England.
  25. George001
    While I don’t think this Niña will be weak, that’s a good point. There is some support for a moderate event from guidance as well. For probabilities, my early thoughts are something like this for now: ENSO neutral: 5% weak Niña: 5% moderate Niña: 30% strong Niña: 60%
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