George001

This looks like it was run out of Metfans cruiser

It can snow at 34 degrees

It would be very unfortunate if the good pattern coming broke down that fast. I’m hoping to not see bare ground until late March after Tuesdays snow.

I’m thinking 12-16 here

I checked the models this afternoon and told my family to stock up on groceries and prepare for the blizzard coming on Tuesday. 980s mb low passing inside the benchmark, I’m all in.

I’m getting excited about this threat

Gfs a bit north from last run. I’d like to see that continue.

I’d like the low to be about 75 miles SE of the GFS and Canadian for my area, but I’ll take my chances with a low bombing to the 970s in mid Feb.

This is painful to look at. If only it was a few degrees colder in eastern mass.

Damn, that is one hell of a storm.

Agree, you can still get a somewhat respectable winter with slightly above normal temps in the means, but it’s been what +4 AN? That’s just too warm. Meanwhile Alaska has been getting hammered.

Yeah, I don’t know why it would supposed to be showing snow. The low is hugging the coast.

Another issue with this winter is an interesting observation Kevin made. Alaska has been BN all year with well AN snows. They are getting hammered, which usually means we are torching. I remember this same thing happening in the 2011-2012 winter. A true Torch Tiger winter.

Yep looks toasty, you excited?

What a winter that was, truly a once in a lifetime type of winter. Had a great pattern just lock in from mid Jan on, and everything that could go right did. The luck factor cannot be understated here, I remember reading something that mentioned the probability of Boston having 90 inches in 3 weeks like the late Jan to mid Feb stretch is 1 in 20000 or something.

The redeeming factor in my eyes is strong and super nino climatology. There is historical precedence for big snows in Feb, even in warmer winters (wasn’t there one in 82-83?). Maybe the thing that screwed us in Dec in Jan can help a bit in late Feb?

This may be unpopular but….. I don’t think omegas posts have been unreasonable at all these past 2 winters. Is he biased? Yeah, but he is far from the only one. I also completely agree with the Pope that the pattern thus far has been consistent with a significant El Niño event. Raging STJ, warm and wet. That has been the theme of this winter, and it looks like it’s going to continue until mid month. What happens then is still up in the air. The reality is it HAS been warm, and it hasn’t been very snowy. If he’s posting 300+ hour torch maps during a blizzard….. then that’s different. Maybe the pattern does change, but when I think pattern change I’m going by great snow’s definition (a change to cold that locks in for 3+ weeks).

Yeah the pattern is not good right now but there are still 2 threats to track. The clipper threat for Feb 2-3 and the possible coastal scraper on Feb 7-8th. Both of these threats need a lot of work. Neither will be blizzards but any snow is good snow at this point. There’s nothing wrong with a quick inch or 2 of snow to make it look like winter.

It’s a clipper threat. It still needs some work but the NAM has a shortwave diving down and going right underneath us. I would rather track clippers than continue to analyze 300+ hour pattern maps. Tracking actual storms beats tracking patterns any day.

There is a wave coming down from Canada and there have been some interesting developments at H5. The wave isn’t super strong, but it looks like there is some strengthening as it hits ocean. There is also a bit of phasing going on, so although the vort is weak to start, the explosive development should occur as this over strengthens, expanding the precip field. It needs some work, but if this deepening occurs further west eastern mass should get some ocean effect snow. These type of events get overlooked but every once in a while a localized are wakes up to a surprised 3-4 inches. It’s probably going to be a lot less than that, but if this trends aggressively we have an outside shot at 2 inches of snow, so it’s still worth tracking.

Just curious, how come the -NAO stretches we had the past couple of years didn’t prevent storms from cutting? I always thought a -NAO meant storms would be forced to redevelop south and turn into Miller Bs even if the trough is west. Is it due to the location of the block?

This was a huge problem last year and in mid Jan this year. Those back to back cutters especially were awful. Not having to worry about that would be a welcome change for sure. For some reason I thought a -NAO meant you can’t cut…. I learned the hard way that isn’t true last winter.

If things trend in the direction of a 1 month stretch of BN temps, I’ll start getting excited. If that happens, then we have a shot to make up for lost time IF we get lucky. Hopefully we at least get one shot to roll the dice on a good 1 month stretch of below normal temps with above normal precip.

This looks better than the setup for the 5th threat (that one looks dry everywhere, low is way offshore). Before I really get invested in this period, I want to see 2 things. 1. No can kicking 2. to not see any signs of the pattern breaking down on the long range guidance once we get to the short range It actually moved up a bit over the past few days, so that’s a good sign. I think it will happen, but I’m more concerned about how long it lasts. If it is just a transient window that isn’t going to cut it. To get this winter out of rat territory we need this favorable pattern to lock in for a good month. We did have a couple transient favorable windows, but did not capitalize and they were too short. The theme of the winter has been warm and wet, the question remains whether this is a transient window inside a sea of warmth, or is it a large scale change to cold?

You know…. A deep understanding of meteorology, data science skills, AI, ML, software development skills, and some element of intuition (the art side of forecasting) are all really useful tools to have in a forecasters toolbox. Ive seen some truly incredible some of the things that have been done on this board using a variety of these tools. I can’t think of anyone who has mastered all of them though, that’s why collaboration and a commitment to leaning is so important. One of my favorite things about weather is how complex and unpredictable it is. It’s fascinating how Mother Nature is able to consistently and easily make so many brilliant minds look so goddamn stupid. It’s really an art in that sense, no matter who you are, what your background is, etc, those who dabble in trying to predict the weather WILL end up with egg on their faces at some point. It’s just the nature of the beast, anyone who makes a correct forecast and thinks they have it all figured out….. will be proven wrong. Those who believe they are the smartest person in the room and take great pride in their sense of “superiority” will not grow beyond a certain point. Those who assign their self worth to how “good” or “bad they are at forecasting the weather are missing the beauty of Mother Nature. The greatest minds in the world, they all stood on the shoulders of giants. There is no shame in drawing from others to forecast, and there is no shame in being horribly wrong and looking like an idiot sometimes. Instead of competing with others, those who dabble in the dark arts of trying to predict the unpredictable beast that is mother nature should embrace the chaos. There is no reason to be afraid of getting egg on your face, accept that it will happen and laugh about it later on. There is no place for ego.