George001

Normal snowfall for New England in a super nino pattern? I don’t know about that. One storm won’t take us to or over climo like the mid Atlantic. One big storm in a sea of warmth won’t get it done for us.

Ah, well in that case I don’t know about that. I would think it has somewhat of an east tilt even if it does go basin wide based on what Paul Roundy said about how this El Niño is developing.

Nino 1.2 is +3.3, which is well into super territory. Even nino 3 is +1.8, which is high end strong. Nino 3.4 and 4 are moderate and high end weak respectively. You bring up a valid point though, it isn’t as east based as 1997-1998. It’s technically going to be considered basin wide simply because the nino itself is so strong it has no choice but to engulf the whole region, but I do think it will stay east leaning based on what Paul Roundy said.

If we end up at +1.6 ONI yeah I could see maybe a slightly warmer version of his outlook coming to fruition, but the issue is the nino is already +1.2 and it’s only August. Based on that and the recent guidance, it’s probably going to end up more like +2.2 or something. Thats not moderate or even strong, it is super. Super nino = torch in the east.

Maybe not a full on ratter like last year, but since it will be a super nino I would think it makes sense to favor above normal temps and below normal snow for all of SNE until proven otherwise.

I don’t know, the rule of thumb I heard reading seasonal forecasts over the years is Super nino = blowtorch in New England. I don’t buy that we will get both a super nino and a snowy winter regardless of what models show right now. I took the cheese last year when I ignored the modoki nina (unfavorable enso configuration), I’m not doing it again. The nino IS building from east to west just like Paul Roundy said, and the guidance has trended towards a super peak. I just don’t buy that we can have both an east based super nino and a cold, snowy winter in the east. The forcing will move.

Regardless, it will be a super nino. The classical super nino forecast is a blowtorch winter with an increased chance at one huge storm (like 2015-2016). That seems like a reasonable expectation for this coming winter.

In the most recent IRI update, the mean for the dynamical guidance increased from +1.809 (strong) to +2.06 (super).

Just took a look, and yep the mean for the IRI dynamical guidance increased from +1.809 (strong) in July to +2.06 (super) in August.

I don’t see any reason to doubt the strength of the El Niño at this point. It is already at +1.2 (moderate) in August, and is showing no signs of slowing down anytime soon. And that is only the ENSO 3.4 region, the ENSO 3 region is +1.8 (strong), and the ENSO 1.2 region is +3.3 (super). Even the ENSO 4 region is at +.9, which is weak but considering that this is a classing eastern pacific (EP) event, that is really impressive. I am expecting the next IRI update to show a significant increase in ENSO strength with the mean being a super peak instead of strong. For those who are rooting for a super nino, there is plenty of reason to be excited with how this nino is developing.

A lot of people on this thread owe Paul Roundy an apology!

It’s not irrelevant, yes that’s warmer than other datasets but the weekly data has enso 3.4 at +1.2, that is still very impressive for this time of the year. The nino is on track to become strong by September, and super by November.

Yeah in SNE we have more room for error than the mid Atlantic, but we still need temps to cooperate at least somewhat (especially if looking for a big winter). Last years temp profile (>+5 AN) is a death sentence even in SNE. +1-2 with lots of precip can work though. That’s why I’m interested to see how this nino develops, a peak of +1.6 vs +2.3 could easily be the difference between an average to decent winter and a ratter for us.

I guess it could be different, but based on how previous east based ninos and super ninos behaved I am concerned. Betting against historical precedent expecting things to be different this time usually doesn’t work out. This is true for most things. I hope im wrong, but I don’t like our odds of having even an average winter never mind a big one this year.

I don’t like how strong the models are projecting the nino to get, and it’s not a modoki either. My concern is that even if things break favorable (I’m not optimistic about that) even the more favorable strong or super nino analogs aren’t all that great (2015-2016, 2009-2010) here. They are mid Atlantic winters. I could be wrong, certainly wouldn’t be the first time and won’t be the last either. However, based on how things look I’m setting my expectations low and they will remain low until proven otherwise (lots of snow in my backyard, not fantasy blizzards).

Good point. Where you live I would not want anything to do with La Niña, but I would be really excited about this coming winter. I think 2024-2025 could be a really interesting winter if it does become a La Niña. A combination of a traditional La Niña pattern (active northern branch) with leftover STJ from the 2023-2024 super nino could lead to a really good pattern for NYC north. If everything lines up perfectly (weak Nina, super east based) then the mid Atlantic may get involved too, but my gut feeling is if we get a Nina it won’t be anywhere near weak. Im not sure exactly WHY this is (I’ll defer to the experts on that), but historically strong ninas often come after strong or super ninos and vice versa.

I wouldn’t write off 2024-2025 so soon, even if it does end up being a La Niña. This is following a similar pattern to 2009-2010 to 2010-2011, and the La Niña ended up being the more severe winter. Depends on what the other factors look like too which won’t be known for a while.

Yeah I’m thinking we get to strong by September and super by November (maybe even late October if the warmer guidance is right). That Paul Roundy guy really knows his shit.

There is still time for things to change but yeah things look really bad right now for winter prospects in New England. Super nino sucks, statistically it is the least favorable ENSO state for New England. Hopefully the models are wrong about the strength of the El Niño.

I’m hoping for a 2002-2003 outcome. Not interested in a mid Atlantic winter like 2009-2010 or 2015-2016. This run looks decent though, getting the precip up into SNE.

ONI isn’t the only relevant index to be fair, MEI is also useful as well. However, nino strong enough to get to a super peak of +2.2 is going to have a really high MEO, RONI, whatever index you want to use value as well. Regardless, it doesn’t really make sense to favor a cold and snowy winter in the east with a nino this strong.

Im not expecting this to happen, but you know what would be funny? If we do end up getting a super nino, but somehow get a big winter anyways. That would break the brains of a lot of posters on this board, including myself.

Yeah isn’t worrying about whether the enso Will couple or not usually only a factor in weak events? If so we wouldn’t need to worry about that since we will get a super nino.

Most recent tri monthly value of .8 is in line with the how the 1965-1966 El Niño evolved. That El Niño grew into a super nino, peaking at 2.0 ONI in November/December. Based on the most recent data, I am changing my prediction from a strong nino (1.8 ONI) to roughly 2.2 ONI (super nino).

Strongly agree, I would rather not see DC, Philly, and NYC get buried while we get skunked.