George001

It will come more north.

It’s very unlikely but it isn’t impossible. It’s an unusual evolution, but we have seen clippers dive south, bomb out over the Atlantic and evolve into a blizzard before. My biggest concern is the temp profile, I’d prefer to see modeled temps in the mid 20s not low 30s throughout the storm.

Was the blocking more north based those years?

Damn, so we are basically going straight from fall to spring

For New England, strong Nina isn’t bad. It’s not our most favorable Enso state (weak Nino and weak Ninas are better), but it’s more favorable than strong or super ninos here. 2010-2011 was one of the snowiest winters on record in the Boston area, and it was during a strong Nina. The last strong Nina we had before that (2007-2008) wasn’t quite as good, but it was still a pretty good winter. Farther north that was an extremely good winter.

I agree that the long range looks better on recent runs and that we will see a colder stretch. However, I don’t like how far south the blocking is on some of these runs. Especially given strong nino climo, I’m concerned about suppression (Feb 2010 style). While yes, the pattern on the models is supported by Feb strong nino climo, that pattern isn’t necessarily good for SNE. It’s a great pattern for the mid Atlantic, ok one for SNE north.

It is possible yeah, but I wanted to see positive trends today and we got steps back instead. Im more interested in the clipper threat behind this one for my area. That needs some work but has been trending favorably the past couple of runs on the gfs. This storm speeding up appears to have helped the wave spacing for the follow up threat.

Yep. Not our storm, it sped up a ton on the models today. Could be a good interior hit still though.

I’m gonna give it until 0z tonight, but if we are still seeing weak solutions by then yeah it’s time to admit that the Pope had the right idea. Very unfortunate to see the models taking steps back today.

Euro sucks, what a shame. Big high to the north, strong southern energy but I guess the pieces just don’t want to come together.

Hopefully not worse. We need: 1. Deeper low 2. Low more north 3. slower storm

That said, big euro run coming up. We need to see the Euro double down, no steps back.

True, low is more north. I agree that the evolution has changed, but it seems to have changed more favorably if anything.

Just yesterday you said you are feeling pretty good about this one. What happened?

I have a question about thermals. I’m looking at the guidance, and despite a mid 1030s mb high to the north the temps are in the 30s for a good amount of time. Wouldn’t you expect the temps to be A LOT colder given that we have a strong high to the north?

I don’t think the setup is as bad as he’s saying, but snowman does bring up a good point about snow ratios. On the 0z Euro for most of the storm the temps are hovering around 33-34 degrees. This does support snowman’s argument that 10:1 maps are overdone, as with temps in that range ratios typically are in the 7:1-5:1 range. However, this is an INCREDIBLY difficult forecast. What if the Euro is off 2 degrees and it’s actually 31? Then you are taking maybe 12:1. On the other hand, if it’s a couple degrees warmer it’s straight up rain. With that high to the north I would think it’s more likely we tick colder than warmer.

Yep, low is more north and it deepens to the mid 980s.

Yeah the ridge is very amplified, there is also a mid 1030s high to the north.

You think we will see a deeper low? I do, I think it will deepen a lot more on future runs.

Im on board for a large scale burial inland. Im pumping the breaks a bit for Boston.

This is the best setup for the coast all year, but I am expecting the jackpot to be NW again. A lot has to go right for us to see double digits right to the coast. Like we could easily see Boston end up with 8 or so while inland gets buried even if things come together.

No, but a solid stripe of 16-20 in the jackpot zone if the trend of the storm slowing down continues.

It’s very possible, the models did trend a lot better today (Euro and Navy especially). I don’t like the look of the pattern on the long range models for Boston though, so they REALLY need to cash in here.

If the storm slows down just a few hours more than the Euro has it, this will be a large scale burial. It’s a tricky forecast though, because if it speeds up a couple hours, it’s a minor event. The middle ground solution is a high end moderate to low end major event. We need the storm to slow down so the strong high to the north has time to build in. Before anyone asks, yes I saw the 12z Navy. The Navy is way more north than the gfs is, which is a big red flag.

I am on board with this developing into a major storm. There are some timing issues, but the ingredients are there. Very amplified western ridge axis, strong southern energy, a piece diving in late trying to phase, and most importantly a mid 1030s mb high to the north trying to build in. That matters to me more than any qpf maps or snow maps, those are always wrong anyways. It’s a progressive pattern yes, but you can get big storms in progressive patterns. Gun to head, I’m taking the over on the EPS mean.