George001
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Everything posted by George001
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Good NW lean, though I would like to see more 980s and 970s on future runs.
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Yep, seeing it offshore 4 days out was a good thing for this setup. Can’t be living and dying by every run. North trend isn’t done either -
Hopefully that changes and the models are underestimating the amplitude of the ridge.
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Eh, I would give this winter an F- grade so far because it’s been so warm. Fortunately it looks like the pattern is going to be changing for the better. To get above a D, we need at least a solid month straight of snowcover.
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Yeah it’s too early to give up
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Gfs is a whiff for this threat but look at what it’s doing for the 20th….
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Don’t get me wrong, I’m not opposed to negative posts about the pattern when it’s justified. I was bitching a lot about the pattern myself in December, but we have cold air now and something to track. The way I see is get the cold first, and usually snow will follow. This is a much higher probability event than having to rely on dynamic cooling and storms to create their own cold air.
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This event went to shit? It’s still 4 days out…. Models do this every storm, if anything you want to be a bit SE of the heaviest snows in guidance this far out.
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We’ve seen storms move hundreds of miles NW inside of 2 days, never mind 4. The models always go back and forth, it was NW, now it’s SE, and it will probably go back NW. Will it go back to the full blown blizzard we saw a couple days ago on that gfs run? Doubt it, but it’s really not far from being a solid moderate event. I’d rather be on the southern edge rooting for a storm to come north than the other way around.
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Not buying it. It will come back north.
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I don’t buy the OTS solutions at all. This is going to trend hundreds of miles north over the next couple of days. I’ve been saying it, look at how far west the western ridge axis is.
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The 16-17th has 6-12 potential, a solid moderate event. However, this threat is a lot bigger.
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Euro is way north this run, still out to sea but it’s very close.
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Agree, it will come north.
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You buy the gfs solution?
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Interesting low location
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Yeah, the Canadian actually has so much cold air that it snows EAST of the low hour 180. The low rams into SNE and it still gives my area blizzard conditions. I’ve never seen snow so close to the low like that before.
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That’s going to be a nuke
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Yeah you guys west are in a good spot for this
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979mb just inside the benchmark
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holy shit, on the gfs the storm evolves into a BLIZZARD for all of eastern mass! Inside 7 days, an actual fucking BLIZZARD!
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The trough is deeper and energy is stronger on the gfs, I like seeing that
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Jan Medium/Long Range Disco 2: Total Obliteration is Coming
George001 replied to Jebman's topic in Mid Atlantic
JB is a climate change denying clown -
Jan Medium/Long Range Disco 2: Total Obliteration is Coming
George001 replied to Jebman's topic in Mid Atlantic
This isn’t a moderate nino though, it’s super. Aren’t Nina’s more common after strong or super ninos? -
Yeah, it’s not a perfect setup but I would take that and run. Half a foot of snow and then an inch of sleet would be a great outcome especially since there is another threat following that is a better setup for the coast. That’s the nice thing about having a good airmass, even if the track isn’t ideal these runs are still giving me a good about of snow before any changeover.
