George001

Agreed on the lack of cold air being a concern, considering mid March climo as well as some of the guidance running the low inland that being an issue makes sense. This threat definitely favors interior zones, but if the storm is strong enough and stays offshore those of us closer to the coast have a shot as well. The EPS shows this well, it has a mean closer to a foot in interior areas and less but still high (4-8) for areas closer to the coast. That suggests some taint risk, but due to how strong the storm is even areas that don’t stay snow the whole storm could get a decent amount. One of the storms in March 2018 was like that, interior areas got buried with 16+ inches while I got around 8 inches.

The Icon is a big hit, closes off at h5 under Long Island. I don’t care what the surface says, that’s a bomb.

True, the guidance is in pretty good agreement on a near miss now. The reason I’m still watching this rather than just watching the following threat (I believe both have a shot) is the low moving SE as it deepens. I don’t buy that at all, I guess it’s possible if the models are showing it but lows normally don’t move like that. I know I sound like im wishcasting, but I truly believe it will come north, and that’s not just because it means more snow for my backyard (I think the following storm is an inland threat and will rain here).

Canadian is more north for the Saturday storm threat

18z eps looks more tucked than 12z

I just want a strong storm, a 970s mb low over your noggin would do the trick. That would be a great storm with strong winds and heavy rain for my area. Also would be good for the ski areas, which I care about because I go north when I ski. I would much rather have a storm hug or run inland than a Jan 2016 disaster.

I’m rooting for a low to go over your noggin.

Those are not weak lows at all

I don’t think it matters all that much if a storm hits or not, we got our fix looking at those fantasy blizzards.

Low location is pretty far north too, that’s inside the benchmark.

Yep if that weakens just a little bit there will be room for the low to come up the coast.

The storm on Saturday will come north.

It’s ok to track storms that don’t pan out, qqomegas thick skull cannot seem to get that concept. Even if both storms miss, or storm 1 whiffs while storm 2 runs inland, so what? We had a favorable pattern, and if we had a great time tracking it really doesn’t make a difference whether we get nothing or 2 feet. Even if we don’t score, that doesn’t negate the enjoyment we had tracking the storms. If it’s just the snow itself you enjoy rather than tracking storms, there is no point in tracking, you may as well just…. not look at the models and wait for the snow to start falling. There isn’t anything wrong with doing that, but in that case why bother posting on these boards?

We have had a record breaking winter. Nearly 10 degrees above average in January, very little snow. We all know you loved every second of it, just admit it. You like warmer weather, like Torch Tiger does.

gefs are juiced up

holy shit that storm is a beast on the gfs, eventually gets down to the high 970s

968mb offshore for the second low. A bit too offshore this run but the setup looks promising.

I don’t think it’s actually going to happen that way, just saying that’s what the model shows verbatim. I would like to see the 500mb upper low cut off a bit se of where it currently is on the gfs.

It snows east of the low on this run

Gfs was actually better than 12z, low location a bit more se, not north like I thought it would be. Thermals improved enough that even my area would get a decent amount of snow.

Gfs looks like it’s going to be more north. It isn’t digging as much with the energy.

Blizzard.

The Navy is a burial for the first wave

Yep, great trends today.

The 540 line is pretty far se, even on the warmest frame. That’s a big hit just off the coast.