George001

Yeah, not what we wanted to see. To get those higher end outcomes it’s a good sign to see the mesos going nuts at this stage. I did like seeing the nam bump north though.

This is my last thread for the winter.

Yeah, it is a bit disappointing after looking good for 12-18 yesterday, but things change. Looks more like 6-12 now, probably closer to 6. Half a foot with another chance a few days later? I’ll take that any day. It looks like the blocking got weaker, so we might need to wait a bit for the really high ceiling events (3/4 could be a big one, but way too early to know). The MJO is expected to go nuts in the long range with blocking lingering around (not south based like December).

3/4 looked north at first to me, but I didn’t analyze the model correctly. It wasn’t really north, it looked like it at first but became kind of strung out and disorganized as it moved west to east. Kind of like a stronger version of the 28th threat.

Yeah, it looks like that one trended north a bit more.

This is looking more and more like March 2018

Yeah, that looks like a really good track for Chicago, it bombs about 50-100 miles SE of there on the mean. The range of solutions is pretty much a 940mb low in Wisconsin to a disorganized and strung out low off the Carolinas. Sometimes the models will catch on to a general threat area at about day 7-8 and lock in, others the models are still all over the place at day 3. This pattern is definitely the latter.

Yep, a step in the right direction. Lets get that 50 miles more north. I would much rather be rooting for a north than a south trend at this stage, they nearly always trend north inside 5 days.

Close to Boston, an ideal track for bigger snow would be about 50-100 miles SE, but that run will do.

I hope it has the right idea, my area does mix at the height of the storm but there is a lot of snow with that solution.

Gfs has a monster storm again for the 4th

I hope the gfs has the right idea, gives eastern areas about a foot.

The 28th storm will come north.

Yesterday it was north, today it went south, and now it’s going to come back north.

Qqomega, if you actually have a minor in atmospheric science and it was your major for two years, you clearly forgot everything you learned.

What the hell….. you are always hyping up warmth like Torch Tiger, and your forecasts are often horribly wrong. Even when they are right, they are right for the wrong reasons (saw a lot of that this year). If you actually like snow, that’s sad. If you actually believe the shit you post this hobby must make you miserable. There are some posters who have been negative about this winter in the east (Allsnow, Pope, Raindance, etc) but they actually have sound reasoning behind why they believed this winter would suck, and they have called for big snow in the past. You just always forecast warmth, and got lucky this year. If you love snow I have no idea what your endgame is here.

We are on opposite ends of the spectrum, but you are just as much of a weenie as I am. It’s similar in concept to the horseshoe theory. You like warmer weather, I like cold and snow. Neither of us are particularly knowledgeable about meteorology, and there is a lot of bias in both of our posts. There isn’t anything wrong with being a weenie who doesn’t understand the physical mechanisms driving our weather, but you gotta own up to it man.

The gfs is a beast for March 4th, it does exactly what I was rooting for the 28th storm to do, it goes over the canal and deepens to the 970s. Man that would be something, that’s gotta be nearly half a foot of sleet for some areas in SE Mass verbatim.

Gfs looks great

Anyways, back to the storm at hand. Even if the more pedestrian guidance is right and we get 8, that’s still a really good storm. So what, it didn’t reach its fullest potential. There is nothing we can do about it, so it’s wasted energy to let it piss you off. Last years blizzard left some on the table too, most storms do. If you can only appreciate storms that reach their ceiling this hobby would be miserable, and there wouldn’t be any point in engaging in it.

Honestly I don’t agree with him being 5 posted. He is just as much of a weenie as I am, but he likes warmer weather while I like snow and cold. I don’t see anything wrong with that, people just don’t like him rooting for record warmth because most of this board likes cold and snow. He gets all kinds of shit for posting a long range gfs run showing a torch, yet when people post long range snow maps, that’s ok? Nah that’s bullshit, this is a weather board, not a “root for snow or else” board. If you ask me, neither of us should be 5 posted but if weenies aren’t going to be allowed anymore, logically it makes sense to 5 post both of us.

The key word is potential, and that’s still on the table if the northern energy phases in (lower probability now yes, but still possible). Not every storm reaches its potential, 12-18 inches is still one hell of a storm and is very much thread worthy. It’s still a bust compared to a top 10 blizzard, but its a big difference than calling for a blizzard and getting nothing. I’d say that calling for Kev to get 60 during the last storm from qqomega was just as “ban worthy” as a busted snow forecast (Not at all if you ask me). It’s weather, we all bust sometimes. In 2015 qqomega, torch tiger, snowman19 would have been just as bad as I was in December.

Then let’s ban all the people who hyped up the December pattern too.

A busted forecast is not ban worthy, so there really isn’t any reason for either of us to be banned. Looks like that’s a no to taking me up on that bet, so I’ll call it off.

Euro is out to sea on the last run, but yeah that looked ugly on the euro for a few cycles. It made a massive shift at 0z.