George001

The Pope is right. That weak blocking isn’t going to be enough to stop a 975mb low from gaining latitude. Stronger storms move poleward, that’s what they do. The gfs isn’t really an outlier, the EPS made a big shift north the past couple of cycles and so has the Canadian. And when you take into account that guidance underestimates the WAR at this range, it can be argued that there is room for this to trend even more north. I guess it’s possible it goes back south, but I’m really liking this setup. Hopefully the Euro makes a bump north at 0z.

Yeah, I overhyped storms but you know what? We have been getting quite a bit of extreme, record breaking weather especially post 2016. Blizzards? Not really, we had a couple sure but record warmth has been the dominating theme. Reality has actually been the exact opposite of the cold and snow I have been hyping, and with our changing climate the record warmth will continue. There isn’t anything we can do about it, so I’m going to embrace it. Enjoy your coating to 2 inches of snow on Tuesday and heavy rain on 3/4. Im really excited about it, I hope the gfs is right about 3/4 and you pour.

Good start to the 0z suite, big shift north.

This post 2016 stretch is making me start to understand the origin of Torch Tiger. He was once a snow weenie like myself, getting excited over every flake. But Torch Tiger began to notice that the local climate started getting warmer, and he found himself disappointed more and more often. Torch Tiger is quite a bit older than I am, so his spirit was already beaten down somewhat by the rat race that is life. Eventually, he reached a breaking point where he could no longer derive enjoyment as a snow weenie while deep down knowing that winters will get milder and milder as climate change accelerates. The competing forces of reality (climate change) and relentless (delusional) optimism began clashing, and this divide caused him great psychological distress. Eventually it became too much, and he went off the deep end. After his psychotic break, he was a changed man. The carefree snow lover he used to be was a thing of the past. Now, there is a darkness inside of him. He feeds off the sorrow of snow weenies, cackling to himself as he sees snow threat after snow threat slip away while while watching us snow weenies melt. He now loves warmer weather, the mere sight of deep red over the eastern US fills him with joy like snow used to. To him, all the record highs we have been getting represent something bigger, it is only the beginning of the death of the eastern US winter. He believes that deep down, even the biggest snow weenies know what is happening to our winters, and feeds off our misery. I have not gone off the deep end yet, but unfortunately the cracks are starting to show. I can feel myself slowly losing my sanity, with the darkness already starting to seep in to my psyche. I will do everything I can to fight it, but couple more ratters in the near future will be the end of me. My transformation will be complete, and a second Torch Tiger will join the board. Please, make it stop….. Just give me one epic winter in the next 5 years, just one to help me fight those demons.

I hope it goes north so much it rains on all of SNE. If it’s not going to be much anyways, missing out isn’t going to be that bad. Besides, it would be worth it just to see the reactions from the board.

With all the haircuts eastern mass has been getting on the models, we will all be bald in a couple of days.

My area could score, but it’s not a great setup for me if looking for big snow. Miller A and limited blocking favors more north. That said, it’s a really strong storm so the areas that stay snow will likely get a lot.

Welp, it was fun tracking with you guys. Unfortunately, it looks like I will end up busting one too many times. The low is barely even there on the Euro, went from 12-18 a couple days ago to the low just…. vanishing. Poof, the low is gone. Before my ban, i just wanted to say I really enjoyed my time here tracking. Our run is coming, but not this Tuesday and Wednesday. Back to the weenie cave for me.

Looking at the thermals there’s a warm layer at around 700mb but it’s colder closer to the surface. That warm layer gets pretty far north, above freezing into southern NH/VT. If the gfs has the right idea with this setup I wouldn’t want to be anywhere near the roads….

Gfs has an exciting solution for 3/4, I see a 970s mb low over my noggin there.

Yeah, not what we wanted to see. To get those higher end outcomes it’s a good sign to see the mesos going nuts at this stage. I did like seeing the nam bump north though.

This is my last thread for the winter.

Yeah, it is a bit disappointing after looking good for 12-18 yesterday, but things change. Looks more like 6-12 now, probably closer to 6. Half a foot with another chance a few days later? I’ll take that any day. It looks like the blocking got weaker, so we might need to wait a bit for the really high ceiling events (3/4 could be a big one, but way too early to know). The MJO is expected to go nuts in the long range with blocking lingering around (not south based like December).

3/4 looked north at first to me, but I didn’t analyze the model correctly. It wasn’t really north, it looked like it at first but became kind of strung out and disorganized as it moved west to east. Kind of like a stronger version of the 28th threat.

Yeah, it looks like that one trended north a bit more.

This is looking more and more like March 2018

Yeah, that looks like a really good track for Chicago, it bombs about 50-100 miles SE of there on the mean. The range of solutions is pretty much a 940mb low in Wisconsin to a disorganized and strung out low off the Carolinas. Sometimes the models will catch on to a general threat area at about day 7-8 and lock in, others the models are still all over the place at day 3. This pattern is definitely the latter.

Yep, a step in the right direction. Lets get that 50 miles more north. I would much rather be rooting for a north than a south trend at this stage, they nearly always trend north inside 5 days.

Close to Boston, an ideal track for bigger snow would be about 50-100 miles SE, but that run will do.

I hope it has the right idea, my area does mix at the height of the storm but there is a lot of snow with that solution.

Gfs has a monster storm again for the 4th

I hope the gfs has the right idea, gives eastern areas about a foot.

The 28th storm will come north.

Yesterday it was north, today it went south, and now it’s going to come back north.

Qqomega, if you actually have a minor in atmospheric science and it was your major for two years, you clearly forgot everything you learned.