George001

That winter was a once in a lifetime event. Statistically it is extremely unlikely it will happen again, but I am thankful that I had the chance to experience that. The old George that loved severe blizzards is not gone. I still love the cold and snow, I’m just not going to be expecting a blizzard for every shortwave that enters the CONUS. That just isn’t a realistic expectation. If there is a blizzard on the on the short range guidance with strong cross guidance support, I’m going to be all over it.

I don’t agree. The guidance constantly delaying the pattern change usually means it’s not going to happen. If we are still seeing storms entering the Pacific Northwest by then and the PDO is still solidly negative, I’m not going to be optimistic. I haven’t even written winter off yet. I also think that people panicking and writing winter off because December looks warm are jumping the gun. Like you said, in El Niño you lose Dec. That’s the way it goes even in good nino winters. I do think this winter will show its hand by early Jan. Does that mean if we don’t get buried as soon as the calendar flips winter is doomed? No, but if the background state (-PDO, unfavorable MJO, storms entering the Pacific Northwest) doesn’t improve and the guidance over the next 2 weeks is showing a sea of warmth, that’s not good.

2014-2015 is an extreme anomaly. Yes ninos are backloaded, but in good nino winters you punt Dec. You do not punt Dec and Jan. In Jan 2015, the pattern was bad early on but there were promising signs and an extremely favorable background state (raging +PDO, weak El Niño). It hasn’t happened yet, but kicking the can is usually a sign that it’s not going to happen. The timeframe being talked about is early Jan, if things look good by then I’ll get excited, if not then I’m writing off winter as a dud. By looking good it doesn’t necessarily mean immediate snow. If we have a cold pattern inside 7 days by like Jan 5th despite not having any snow on the ground, good. If we have no snow AND warmth is dominating the long range guidance, I don’t see how you can objectively look at how things are going and NOT be concerned.

Fair enough, but we aren’t kicking the can this winter. If things look good by then and we have an event on the horizon, then I’ll be excited. If we get to early Jan with nothing on the horizon then its time to write winter off as a rat. I don’t think that’s too unreasonable.

Yep, that’s the way it goes in El Niño. In La Nina’s, you lose February. In Ninos, you lose December. The timeframe I am hearing on several sub forums is late Dec-early Jan. If we get skunked in early Jan and there is nothing on the horizon, then it’s time to panic and call for a ratter. We won’t truly know until then what this winter is made of.

Uh oh, Torch Tiger is excited. That’s a telltale sign that the models trended unfavorably.

I don’t understand how unfavorable MJO states are inherently a Nina pattern, and also why is a Nina pattern inherently bad? The MEI averaged -1.9 for Dec 2010-Jan 2011, and the trimonthly ONI for NDJ was -1.6. That was a well coupled strong La Niña, yet it was still a very cold and snowy winter in New England. Historically, Ninos (especially stronger ones and ones with significant nino 4 warming) are mild in December, and Ninas are colder and snowier. Ninos tend to be more backloaded.

That said, even if we do get a -NAO, I’m pumping the breaks until I see significant improvements in the pacific. That’s my biggest concern for the coastal plain Dec-Jan, that the pacific is so hostile that even if the -NAO forces some slow moving bombs underneath, it will be more wet than white.

The implication on later in the season is the part that interests me. Even if the NAO is negative for the reasons you mentioned I am leaning mild, but if we do get blocking in Jan-Feb that could derail my winter outlook (called for a big +NAO in Jan-Feb). Im not abandoning my forecast and jumping on board with a snowier winter just yet. However, as someone who is trying to become a more objective poster, I have to acknowledge that the latest polar polar vortex guidance is pretty much the opposite of what I expected to see.

It started as east based but is now basinwide.

Yeah, reading your outlook we are on the same page about the strength of the El Niño. It could be a bit stronger, but I don’t think it matters too much. It’s not going to be 2015-2016 or 1997-1998 strong, it’s going to be more 1965-1966 to 1972-1973 strong. I hear a lot of talk about the forcing, but I question how big of a driver it truly is on our temp profiles compared to the raw strength of the nino and -PDO. The plot that Raindance showed earlier of snowfall totals in Boston during El Niño winters for varying PDO values shows a clear correlation. I haven’t seen anything like that about the relationship between VP forcing and eastern US temps.

That’s true, he did say there would be a window. Hopefully we can cash in when the pattern becomes more favorable later in the month.

Paul said this is going to be a big one as early as late last winter, and welp here we are. It’s a big one, and Paul has been dead on about its evolution. He said it would build from east to west, and it did just that. It’s ok to admit that he was right. Yes, it’s not a pure east based nino, it’s now basin wide. But….. so was 2015-2016, the strength does matter.

This is why we shouldn’t think for ourselves and instead let Paul Roundy tell us what to think. Paul Roundy told me the nino would be super. I listened to him initially, then backed off based on my own observations and analysis. If I didn’t bother to do any of that and just waited for Paul Roundy to tell me what to think, I would have stuck to my guns and doubled down on this nino growing into a super event. Now, it looks like that’s exactly what’s happening. It looked for a bit like it might top at strong, but it’s going super.

It’s possible, but betting on dynamics to overcome a marginal airmass is a losing proposition more often than not. The return rate for these marginal types of events is much lower than it is when we have a better airmass in place. The problem is a stronger more phased storm will be more tucked, and draw in more mild air. There is a window where it’s just phased enough to dynamically cool the column but also not so phased the low tucks in to much, but that window is very small.

With the December Atlantic ssts I need to see surface temps in the mid to upper 20s before jumping on board. Marginal events do not work for us in December. When you have marginal thermal profiles at this time of year, take the under on those 10:1 maps. That said, I’m glad ski areas are getting hit.

Solid threat for ski areas, but temps look too marginal for the coastal plain. In December I’d like to see modeled temps in the mid to upper 20s instead of low to mid 30s before I jump on board for my area.

938… holy shit

Yeah that’s ugly

Yeah the modeled jet stream configuration in early December is typical for stronger ninos.

Yeah idk what the whole Nina background state nonsense is about. All guidance has the southern jet strengthening in early December. That doesn’t happen in Ninas, this is a strong El Niño pattern.

I would be shocked if the winter pattern was even remotely nina like. This nino isn’t weak or even moderate, it’s borderline super.

I stand corrected. Yeah, looks like I’ll have to reassess the whole +NAO December idea.

I’m not entirely sure what I’m looking at here so feel free to correct me if I’m wrong, but the forcing is the blue and purple right? Basically blue and purples = El Niño forcing, and you would expect more purple and for the blue and purple area to be more expansive in stronger events? The forcing looks to be weaker than 97 and 82, but it isn’t weak. It’s definitely farther west, but it’s stronger than 02 and 09.

I agree with Snowman here, and would agree with Tony in the scenario you mentioned. Even 7 days out is iffy, we monster blizzards 7 days out disappearing all the time in winter. On the other hand, some of our biggest blizzards were complete whiffs or inland runners 7 days out. The modeled blocking doesn’t show up until what 9-10 days out? You know it’s going to change a lot for better or worse, so why shouldn’t we be asking why it could be wrong?