George001

The trough goes neutral over Texas, and then starts gaining latitude even on these 18z runs. The confluence did strengthen a bit, but it enough to stop the storm from gaining latitude out west? No, also these usually trend north in the short range. I think this trends more north, a good 150-200 miles from now until verification.

The shortwave is trending slower and more amplified, so even if the confluence does trend stronger there isn’t much holding it there. The blocking isn’t all that strong and like the Pope said, it’s east based. Strong storms gain latitude, they don’t just move west to east. To get snow for SNE we need the shortwave to not gain latitude from its position in the Midwest which doesn’t seem likely at all. Sure anything can happen, but at this point all signs point towards the north trend continuing.

It isn’t all that difficult to change. Just look at my posts about sports, I used to be very positive about the direction the Red Sox we’re going in, the front office, etc. but then I was faced with reality, and adjusted my expectations. I can easily do that with weather too, and I will do so. Sure, I’ll track winter storms but will do so with the understanding that most of them won’t snow here. I like rain too, so if it cuts to Montreal that’s great.

Well there isn’t anything we can do about it, so it’s illogical to get upset about it. Hobbies are supposed to be enjoyable, so why not make the choice to enjoy the weather we will get? Post 2016 winters have been dominated for the most part by extreme warmth, and I don’t see any reason why that will stop. There isn’t anything wrong with liking warmer weather.

Nah, I like rain and warmer weather now. Deep down, we know warmth will win out in the end so why not embrace it?

That is if it holds, there is no signs of the north trend stopping. Encouraging 12z runs today for us rain enthusiasts.

Yep, north trend continues.

Yeah, there is a lot of variation in climo even within New England. It’s kind of cool how I can drive even 20-30 minutes NW and go from 8 inches to nearly 2 feet of snow. Hasn’t really happened this winter, but it’s a fairly common occurrence. A good trend for one area leads to other areas getting screwed.

Yeah, like the Pope mentioned early the shortwave gains latitude.

Gfs has a low in Chicago

Not all of us, I like the way this one is trending.

EPS will be interesting, looks like the mid Atlantic special is becoming less and less likely. No snow for Philly and DC, and there is enough time for even more north shifts.

I haven’t seen the gefs yet, I’m interested to see where most members have the low location. I don’t think it will be in Chicago, but am expecting a bump north. Possibly over Buffalo.

Gfs made a big jump north, low in Chicago.

Agree, if anything the other models are trending more north. Imo this has room to trend even more north, the trough is going negative over the midwest. The gfs has a low over SNE, but I wouldn’t be surprised if this ends up over Buffalo in the end. The gfs isn’t the best model but just looking at the overall setup and the ensemble guidance, a more north solution makes sense.

The Pope is right. That weak blocking isn’t going to be enough to stop a 975mb low from gaining latitude. Stronger storms move poleward, that’s what they do. The gfs isn’t really an outlier, the EPS made a big shift north the past couple of cycles and so has the Canadian. And when you take into account that guidance underestimates the WAR at this range, it can be argued that there is room for this to trend even more north. I guess it’s possible it goes back south, but I’m really liking this setup. Hopefully the Euro makes a bump north at 0z.

Yeah, I overhyped storms but you know what? We have been getting quite a bit of extreme, record breaking weather especially post 2016. Blizzards? Not really, we had a couple sure but record warmth has been the dominating theme. Reality has actually been the exact opposite of the cold and snow I have been hyping, and with our changing climate the record warmth will continue. There isn’t anything we can do about it, so I’m going to embrace it. Enjoy your coating to 2 inches of snow on Tuesday and heavy rain on 3/4. Im really excited about it, I hope the gfs is right about 3/4 and you pour.

Good start to the 0z suite, big shift north.

This post 2016 stretch is making me start to understand the origin of Torch Tiger. He was once a snow weenie like myself, getting excited over every flake. But Torch Tiger began to notice that the local climate started getting warmer, and he found himself disappointed more and more often. Torch Tiger is quite a bit older than I am, so his spirit was already beaten down somewhat by the rat race that is life. Eventually, he reached a breaking point where he could no longer derive enjoyment as a snow weenie while deep down knowing that winters will get milder and milder as climate change accelerates. The competing forces of reality (climate change) and relentless (delusional) optimism began clashing, and this divide caused him great psychological distress. Eventually it became too much, and he went off the deep end. After his psychotic break, he was a changed man. The carefree snow lover he used to be was a thing of the past. Now, there is a darkness inside of him. He feeds off the sorrow of snow weenies, cackling to himself as he sees snow threat after snow threat slip away while while watching us snow weenies melt. He now loves warmer weather, the mere sight of deep red over the eastern US fills him with joy like snow used to. To him, all the record highs we have been getting represent something bigger, it is only the beginning of the death of the eastern US winter. He believes that deep down, even the biggest snow weenies know what is happening to our winters, and feeds off our misery. I have not gone off the deep end yet, but unfortunately the cracks are starting to show. I can feel myself slowly losing my sanity, with the darkness already starting to seep in to my psyche. I will do everything I can to fight it, but couple more ratters in the near future will be the end of me. My transformation will be complete, and a second Torch Tiger will join the board. Please, make it stop….. Just give me one epic winter in the next 5 years, just one to help me fight those demons.

I hope it goes north so much it rains on all of SNE. If it’s not going to be much anyways, missing out isn’t going to be that bad. Besides, it would be worth it just to see the reactions from the board.

With all the haircuts eastern mass has been getting on the models, we will all be bald in a couple of days.

My area could score, but it’s not a great setup for me if looking for big snow. Miller A and limited blocking favors more north. That said, it’s a really strong storm so the areas that stay snow will likely get a lot.

Welp, it was fun tracking with you guys. Unfortunately, it looks like I will end up busting one too many times. The low is barely even there on the Euro, went from 12-18 a couple days ago to the low just…. vanishing. Poof, the low is gone. Before my ban, i just wanted to say I really enjoyed my time here tracking. Our run is coming, but not this Tuesday and Wednesday. Back to the weenie cave for me.

Looking at the thermals there’s a warm layer at around 700mb but it’s colder closer to the surface. That warm layer gets pretty far north, above freezing into southern NH/VT. If the gfs has the right idea with this setup I wouldn’t want to be anywhere near the roads….

Gfs has an exciting solution for 3/4, I see a 970s mb low over my noggin there.