George001

In the most recent IRI update, the mean for the dynamical guidance increased from +1.809 (strong) to +2.06 (super).

Just took a look, and yep the mean for the IRI dynamical guidance increased from +1.809 (strong) in July to +2.06 (super) in August.

I don’t see any reason to doubt the strength of the El Niño at this point. It is already at +1.2 (moderate) in August, and is showing no signs of slowing down anytime soon. And that is only the ENSO 3.4 region, the ENSO 3 region is +1.8 (strong), and the ENSO 1.2 region is +3.3 (super). Even the ENSO 4 region is at +.9, which is weak but considering that this is a classing eastern pacific (EP) event, that is really impressive. I am expecting the next IRI update to show a significant increase in ENSO strength with the mean being a super peak instead of strong. For those who are rooting for a super nino, there is plenty of reason to be excited with how this nino is developing.

A lot of people on this thread owe Paul Roundy an apology!

It’s not irrelevant, yes that’s warmer than other datasets but the weekly data has enso 3.4 at +1.2, that is still very impressive for this time of the year. The nino is on track to become strong by September, and super by November.

Yeah in SNE we have more room for error than the mid Atlantic, but we still need temps to cooperate at least somewhat (especially if looking for a big winter). Last years temp profile (>+5 AN) is a death sentence even in SNE. +1-2 with lots of precip can work though. That’s why I’m interested to see how this nino develops, a peak of +1.6 vs +2.3 could easily be the difference between an average to decent winter and a ratter for us.

I guess it could be different, but based on how previous east based ninos and super ninos behaved I am concerned. Betting against historical precedent expecting things to be different this time usually doesn’t work out. This is true for most things. I hope im wrong, but I don’t like our odds of having even an average winter never mind a big one this year.

I don’t like how strong the models are projecting the nino to get, and it’s not a modoki either. My concern is that even if things break favorable (I’m not optimistic about that) even the more favorable strong or super nino analogs aren’t all that great (2015-2016, 2009-2010) here. They are mid Atlantic winters. I could be wrong, certainly wouldn’t be the first time and won’t be the last either. However, based on how things look I’m setting my expectations low and they will remain low until proven otherwise (lots of snow in my backyard, not fantasy blizzards).

Good point. Where you live I would not want anything to do with La Niña, but I would be really excited about this coming winter. I think 2024-2025 could be a really interesting winter if it does become a La Niña. A combination of a traditional La Niña pattern (active northern branch) with leftover STJ from the 2023-2024 super nino could lead to a really good pattern for NYC north. If everything lines up perfectly (weak Nina, super east based) then the mid Atlantic may get involved too, but my gut feeling is if we get a Nina it won’t be anywhere near weak. Im not sure exactly WHY this is (I’ll defer to the experts on that), but historically strong ninas often come after strong or super ninos and vice versa.

I wouldn’t write off 2024-2025 so soon, even if it does end up being a La Niña. This is following a similar pattern to 2009-2010 to 2010-2011, and the La Niña ended up being the more severe winter. Depends on what the other factors look like too which won’t be known for a while.

Yeah I’m thinking we get to strong by September and super by November (maybe even late October if the warmer guidance is right). That Paul Roundy guy really knows his shit.

There is still time for things to change but yeah things look really bad right now for winter prospects in New England. Super nino sucks, statistically it is the least favorable ENSO state for New England. Hopefully the models are wrong about the strength of the El Niño.

I’m hoping for a 2002-2003 outcome. Not interested in a mid Atlantic winter like 2009-2010 or 2015-2016. This run looks decent though, getting the precip up into SNE.

ONI isn’t the only relevant index to be fair, MEI is also useful as well. However, nino strong enough to get to a super peak of +2.2 is going to have a really high MEO, RONI, whatever index you want to use value as well. Regardless, it doesn’t really make sense to favor a cold and snowy winter in the east with a nino this strong.

Im not expecting this to happen, but you know what would be funny? If we do end up getting a super nino, but somehow get a big winter anyways. That would break the brains of a lot of posters on this board, including myself.

Yeah isn’t worrying about whether the enso Will couple or not usually only a factor in weak events? If so we wouldn’t need to worry about that since we will get a super nino.

Most recent tri monthly value of .8 is in line with the how the 1965-1966 El Niño evolved. That El Niño grew into a super nino, peaking at 2.0 ONI in November/December. Based on the most recent data, I am changing my prediction from a strong nino (1.8 ONI) to roughly 2.2 ONI (super nino).

Strongly agree, I would rather not see DC, Philly, and NYC get buried while we get skunked.

I would have expected the warmth to be much more widespread with El Niño growing that strong.

Anyways, back to the El Niño it looks like it is on track to become a strong event by the fall. The models are starting to come to a consensus, the Australian cooled off while the CFS warmed up.

All depends on where you live. My area in New England statistically does the worst in super ninos and second worst in strong ninos (especially non modokis) so I am expecting this upcoming winter to be a fairly benign winter here, like last year (not quite that extreme, but nevertheless below normal snow and above normal temps). Ninas following ninos are often really damn good in SNE, 1995-1996 and 2010-2011 are good examples. If we do get a Nina, I would think it would be a fairly strong one since this El Niño is going to be quite strong. If you are right and we go from super nino to strong Nina, the mid Atlantic will likely do better relative to average this winter than the next so I would expect most mid Atlantic folks would prefer this winter. I would expect my area to do well during the strong Nina and poorly this winter. In fact, the progression you are describing is very similar to 2009-2010 to 2010-2011. This nino will likely be stronger than that one, but regardless that went from strong nino after a multi year Nina to a very strong La Niña in 2010-2011.

I don’t think that is likely being 2 years removed from 3 consecutive La Ninas. A second year nino is more likely, especially if this nino doesn’t become a super event. I think something like this is more likely: year 1- strong east based El Niño (EP) year 2- central based weak El Niño (CP) year 3- strong La Niña

Dynamical guidance is up to a peak ONI of 1.81, not backing down at all. Whether it’s high end strong or low end super, either way it’s going to be a big one.

All that red on the map makes me want to vomit

That is very possible. The next IRI update will be very telling. The nino hasn’t been strengthening much in the Enso 3.4 region in July like some of the guidance had, but it has been strengthening in the enso 3 and 1.2 region. Could be a delayed but not denied thing when it comes to significant 3.4 strengthening.