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George001

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Everything posted by George001

  1. George001
    Climate change is very much real and is accelerating, but I don’t think that’s why the models are struggling here. The models are struggling because it’s a Miller B.
  2. George001
    I don’t envy the mets who need to forecast this storm but as a weenie, this has been a lot of fun to track. We are less than 2 days out from the start of the storm and the models are still giving me anything from nothing to 2 feet of snow. That’s an insane amount of uncertainty this close in.
  3. George001
    Only about 500 miles west of the Euro
  4. George001
    An interesting thing I noticed for my area looking at the gefs indies was there were more members that gave me nothing but also more 20+ bombs. There aren’t many giving me 6-12.
  5. George001
    If we really get skunked after all guidance converging on a low over the cape 3 days out Im done tracking this winter and moving on to rooting for record heat.
  6. George001
    Doesn’t look great with the Euro insisting on the dual low but I’m not giving up. Low is too strong and the h5 looks really good.
  7. George001
    Looks the same as 12z, still struggling with the phantom low.
  8. George001
    Nam is below freezing during the height of the storm
  9. George001
    The nam is frigid during the heaviest snows in eastern mass, 30 degrees right to the coast. If that’s right, the 10:1 maps may be underdone, not overdone.
  10. George001
    Stronger low on the nam at hour 27, 997mb vs 1000mb last run
  11. George001
    I don’t buy the dual low thing but we will see. The difference between your forecast and mine is just 1 or 2 degrees, that’s it. Tough forecast.
  12. George001
    I would go 10-15 in the 1-3 area (except the cape, there would be a sharp cutoff there due to low location), 16-24 in the 4-8 area, and 24-30 in the berkshires.
  13. George001
    there will be one low.
  14. George001
    Enjoy your blizzard, it’s coming.
  15. George001
    Nam gets below freezing in interior areas and down to 33 for the coast, wouldn’t those areas below freezing see better than 10:1 ratios?
  16. George001
    Wow that’s a lot colder than the other guidance
  17. George001
    The crazy thing is models could be underestimating the QPF by quite a bit despite giving many areas 2.5+ inches. With a 970s mb low stalling over the cape I think that will increase.
  18. George001
    The tv mets were forecasting 1-3 inches of snow for my area this evening
  19. George001
    Doesn’t look very east to me, the low is NW of the benchmark by a decent amount.
  20. George001
    Euro Canadian Ukie Navy Rgem and Nam all take the low over the cape
  21. George001
    EURO IS A BURIAL
  22. George001
    Fuck it, I’m going to say it. That’s a monster blizzard!
  23. George001
    Great start to the 0z suite
  24. George001
    Yep, stronger low. 976mb over the elbow.
  25. George001
    could the dual low thing be the models struggling with the transfer (Miller B redevelopment)? I think the models might consolidate and merge the 2 lows into one big low as we get closer to the storm.
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