George001

I hope I’m wrong, but even the most explosive runs don’t have the temp getting below 34 or so for my area, and the kuchera maps were a lot less snowy than the 10:1 maps. For the thermal gradient issue, isn’t that how coastal areas get our biggest March blizzards? The clash of cold air to the north with warmer ocean temps?

In Boston yeah you are probably fucked with this one. For us in coastal areas and interior SE Mass we need a high to the north to bring the cold air in, otherwise we will end up with a cold rain and if it does flip due to dynamics, the snow ratios will be low. The lack of cold also leads to a weaker thermal gradient, which will make it tougher to get the low to bomb out enough. Inland is a different story, there is more room for error there but I’d be shocked if either of us get a plowable snow from this. The models seem to be locked in on the airmass being warm. That doesn’t mean it’s time to punt winter though, we still have a couple weeks left before climo becomes too unfavorable and we are done with threats.

We need more cold air to build in

Damn, 30 inches in western mass. It looks like whoever is NW of the rain snow line is going to get buried.

A low in central Mass isn’t what we want to see if looking for snow, there’s no way around it. However it could be wrong, plenty of time for changes 5 days out. It’s a possible solution for sure, but if we get a high to the north to start building in that would help.

Inland track and no high to the north

There isn’t anything we can do about it, so we may as well embrace the warmth. Our winters have been getting warmer and warmer as climate change continues to accelerate, and that will only continue. Join the dark side, and start rooting for record heat.

The Canadian is a thing of beauty, nice and toasty.

Cmon man, why you gotta diss the Navy?

Big 0z runs tonight. I’d like to see some signs of a high pressure to the north building in, even if it’s a very weak one.

We need a high to the north for Boston and other areas close to the coast. It’s a long shot imo but who knows, a high to the north might appear in the short range. Right now it looks like the type of storm where Boston gets barely anything and just inland gets a decent amount.

Yep that’s a tick north, also noticed there were more inland members.

Gefs is way north

He’s been very quiet today with the other guidance trending towards the Euro and the Euro doubling down.

We need that high over the Midwest to slide east faster

That’s a lot of snow

Starts as rain yeah but changes over to heavy wet snow as the low bombs out.

Euro looks really good

Yeah a 990 mb low in central Mass isn’t going to cut it. The Canadian and gefs look great though

Yep less inland lows

Where do you want the low to go

Agreed on the lack of cold air being a concern, considering mid March climo as well as some of the guidance running the low inland that being an issue makes sense. This threat definitely favors interior zones, but if the storm is strong enough and stays offshore those of us closer to the coast have a shot as well. The EPS shows this well, it has a mean closer to a foot in interior areas and less but still high (4-8) for areas closer to the coast. That suggests some taint risk, but due to how strong the storm is even areas that don’t stay snow the whole storm could get a decent amount. One of the storms in March 2018 was like that, interior areas got buried with 16+ inches while I got around 8 inches.

The Icon is a big hit, closes off at h5 under Long Island. I don’t care what the surface says, that’s a bomb.

True, the guidance is in pretty good agreement on a near miss now. The reason I’m still watching this rather than just watching the following threat (I believe both have a shot) is the low moving SE as it deepens. I don’t buy that at all, I guess it’s possible if the models are showing it but lows normally don’t move like that. I know I sound like im wishcasting, but I truly believe it will come north, and that’s not just because it means more snow for my backyard (I think the following storm is an inland threat and will rain here).

Canadian is more north for the Saturday storm threat