George001

My area could score, but it’s not a great setup for me if looking for big snow. Miller A and limited blocking favors more north. That said, it’s a really strong storm so the areas that stay snow will likely get a lot.

Welp, it was fun tracking with you guys. Unfortunately, it looks like I will end up busting one too many times. The low is barely even there on the Euro, went from 12-18 a couple days ago to the low just…. vanishing. Poof, the low is gone. Before my ban, i just wanted to say I really enjoyed my time here tracking. Our run is coming, but not this Tuesday and Wednesday. Back to the weenie cave for me.

Looking at the thermals there’s a warm layer at around 700mb but it’s colder closer to the surface. That warm layer gets pretty far north, above freezing into southern NH/VT. If the gfs has the right idea with this setup I wouldn’t want to be anywhere near the roads….

Gfs has an exciting solution for 3/4, I see a 970s mb low over my noggin there.

Yeah, not what we wanted to see. To get those higher end outcomes it’s a good sign to see the mesos going nuts at this stage. I did like seeing the nam bump north though.

This is my last thread for the winter.

Yeah, it is a bit disappointing after looking good for 12-18 yesterday, but things change. Looks more like 6-12 now, probably closer to 6. Half a foot with another chance a few days later? I’ll take that any day. It looks like the blocking got weaker, so we might need to wait a bit for the really high ceiling events (3/4 could be a big one, but way too early to know). The MJO is expected to go nuts in the long range with blocking lingering around (not south based like December).

3/4 looked north at first to me, but I didn’t analyze the model correctly. It wasn’t really north, it looked like it at first but became kind of strung out and disorganized as it moved west to east. Kind of like a stronger version of the 28th threat.

Yeah, it looks like that one trended north a bit more.

This is looking more and more like March 2018

Yeah, that looks like a really good track for Chicago, it bombs about 50-100 miles SE of there on the mean. The range of solutions is pretty much a 940mb low in Wisconsin to a disorganized and strung out low off the Carolinas. Sometimes the models will catch on to a general threat area at about day 7-8 and lock in, others the models are still all over the place at day 3. This pattern is definitely the latter.

Yep, a step in the right direction. Lets get that 50 miles more north. I would much rather be rooting for a north than a south trend at this stage, they nearly always trend north inside 5 days.

Close to Boston, an ideal track for bigger snow would be about 50-100 miles SE, but that run will do.

I hope it has the right idea, my area does mix at the height of the storm but there is a lot of snow with that solution.

Gfs has a monster storm again for the 4th

I hope the gfs has the right idea, gives eastern areas about a foot.

The 28th storm will come north.

Yesterday it was north, today it went south, and now it’s going to come back north.

Qqomega, if you actually have a minor in atmospheric science and it was your major for two years, you clearly forgot everything you learned.

What the hell….. you are always hyping up warmth like Torch Tiger, and your forecasts are often horribly wrong. Even when they are right, they are right for the wrong reasons (saw a lot of that this year). If you actually like snow, that’s sad. If you actually believe the shit you post this hobby must make you miserable. There are some posters who have been negative about this winter in the east (Allsnow, Pope, Raindance, etc) but they actually have sound reasoning behind why they believed this winter would suck, and they have called for big snow in the past. You just always forecast warmth, and got lucky this year. If you love snow I have no idea what your endgame is here.

We are on opposite ends of the spectrum, but you are just as much of a weenie as I am. It’s similar in concept to the horseshoe theory. You like warmer weather, I like cold and snow. Neither of us are particularly knowledgeable about meteorology, and there is a lot of bias in both of our posts. There isn’t anything wrong with being a weenie who doesn’t understand the physical mechanisms driving our weather, but you gotta own up to it man.

The gfs is a beast for March 4th, it does exactly what I was rooting for the 28th storm to do, it goes over the canal and deepens to the 970s. Man that would be something, that’s gotta be nearly half a foot of sleet for some areas in SE Mass verbatim.

Gfs looks great

Anyways, back to the storm at hand. Even if the more pedestrian guidance is right and we get 8, that’s still a really good storm. So what, it didn’t reach its fullest potential. There is nothing we can do about it, so it’s wasted energy to let it piss you off. Last years blizzard left some on the table too, most storms do. If you can only appreciate storms that reach their ceiling this hobby would be miserable, and there wouldn’t be any point in engaging in it.

Honestly I don’t agree with him being 5 posted. He is just as much of a weenie as I am, but he likes warmer weather while I like snow and cold. I don’t see anything wrong with that, people just don’t like him rooting for record warmth because most of this board likes cold and snow. He gets all kinds of shit for posting a long range gfs run showing a torch, yet when people post long range snow maps, that’s ok? Nah that’s bullshit, this is a weather board, not a “root for snow or else” board. If you ask me, neither of us should be 5 posted but if weenies aren’t going to be allowed anymore, logically it makes sense to 5 post both of us.