George001

Euro and Canadian have a Miller B

Gfs did shift se a bit….. from low in central Wisconsin to low in southeastern Wisconsin.

I don’t see a problem with pointing out that there is cutter risk, but when the models were showing a blizzard qqomega didn’t say anything, he only starts posting when the models look warm and rainy. He needs to stop lying to others and himself. We all know how much he loves warmer weather, he should just own it like Torch Tiger does.

yeah, that’s a big jump NW on the gfs. Low in Wisconsin.

I don’t agree that it’s necessarily a problem. It increases the cutter risk yes, but even if that happens there isn’t anything wrong with that. The favorable pattern increases the chance of getting a big storm, which is exactly what I’m looking for. I’d love to get a blizzard don’t get me wrong, but if we get a massive cutter to Chicago that would also be really exciting. Heavy rain, 60 degrees and strong winds is nothing to scoff at.

It did, gfs was more north

It’s not happening this year, but I would love a March 2012 redux. Unfortunately I wasn’t able to appreciate it when it happened because back then I only liked cold and snow, but now that I like warmer weather that month would be just as fun to experience as March 2018 was.

Agree, I’m really looking forward to spring and the warmth that comes with it. Can’t wait for us to start going into the 80s regularly, bass love the heat. I just started getting into saltwater fishing last year, trying to catch that first monster striper.

Went from offshore to central PA to Chicago in just a few runs. This solution would be nice and toasty verbatim.

Euro looks more north

The Canadian does run the low inland, but it still snows east of the low.

For what it’s worth, last night I saw a rabbit. That is making me lean more north/less snow for my area.

Way north, and the crazy thing is the hrrr has a south and cold bias at this range. It may end up even more north than that.

Yeah it wouldn’t be snowy for us but still a very impressive storm with heavy rain and wind. I would still consider the pattern a success if that happens. It’s a possible outcome but without a massive trough in the west and MJO in phase 8 by then there is room for that to be more south and east. The EPS shows that, while there are some inland members as well as offshore ones, the mean is maybe 50 miles NW of the benchmark and is 993mb. That’s a really strong signal this far out.

Damn, Euro moved way north for the 10th-11th threat. Low plows straight into central PA, strong storm too.

These 0z runs show why qqomega jumped the gun saying that mid March looked boring. Just like that, a low appeared on the OP runs! I wouldn’t call it a blizzard, but a nice moderate snowfall is very possible. Even if it doesn’t pan out, we are tracking a storm. Not boring at all.

Yep, the NAM being that far north this close in is a red flag. It could be wrong yeah, but it’s very much a possible outcome. The other models may not be picking up the convection as well as the NAM is.

Yeah, Boston usually gets screwed with the East wind. I wouldn’t be surprised if they get like 2-3 and 10 miles NW ends up with 8 or something. Still a lot of uncertainty though, if the NAM is right Boston gets nothing.

Gfs looks about the same

I would sign up for that, one big storm and then bring on the warmth.

Canadian ticked south too

This one is going to be a nightmare to forecast. Even a couple degrees off would mean a big difference in expected snowfall.

Yeah, the models don’t look that far apart. Most have the low going over Nantucket. The more north guidance has the low going over the elbow and the gfs is a bit se of Nantucket, but not by much. I know there are big differences in the clown maps when looking at say gfs vs nam, but those clown maps suck and are probably going to be wrong. 10:1 doesn’t work when there is mixing or thermals are marginal, in reality especially for borderline areas they will be lower. Those snow depth maps are more realistic.

Yeah it looks like we are getting closer to a consensus. The gfs has been pretty good with this one so far, even though I highly doubt I’m getting anywhere near a foot like it’s saying (even half a foot is a big stretch). It did have the right idea with the storm coming more north early on while the Euro was all over the place. Regardless of what happens with this one though, the mid month period could be a fun one to track with the MJO going into 8 at a high amplitude. Even if it doesn’t pan out, I bet we will see some wild solutions on the models (No, I’m not going to start a thread nor will I call for a blizzard. I’m done with that fantasy shit).

Fair enough, I agree that I never should have started the thread. It is clear to me at this point that I should be leaning warm until proven otherwise, not calling for cold and snow non stop like I used to. Going by your posts here it appeared that you were on board for phasing until late in the game.