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George001

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Everything posted by George001

  1. George001
    Yeah just the day before the storm they had Boston at 8-12 and they didn’t even get an inch. Just a few degrees too warm, the dual low scenario screwed us in eastern mass. If it stayed one low we would have gotten a lot more than we did.
  2. George001
    It will come way north imo, the trough goes back out west and the blocking is too weak. It’s possible things break right but I would much rather have a good pacific and bad Atlantic than what we have now. Blocking helps but the pacific is a lot more important. I’m ready to move on to spring, hopefully we get a west based moderate or weaker nino next year.
  3. George001
    Yeah the snow underperformed here as well, I only got a couple of inches. I’m ready to move on to rooting for record heat. I hope we break 100 this summer.
  4. George001
    Why do you track storms if you don’t enjoy it?
  5. George001
    The snow aspect of the storm didn’t really pan out here but this storm was far from a disappointment. We got nearly a months worth of rain in just 2 days, that’s really fucking cool. Easily one of the most fun events I’ve tracked in the last decade with all the uncertainty.
  6. George001
    Most of the accumulating snow in eastern mass is supposed to be tonight. I’m not giving up yet though I will admit things don’t look great right now.
  7. George001
    Based off the latest obs how are you feeling about your map
  8. George001
    The nam sucks it was giving me 2 feet the other day. I never bought those totals but based on obs I’m not sure I even get 6, it’s 39 degrees and raining right now. Still one hell of a storm though, some areas in the berkshires already have 20+ inches.
  9. George001
    Thats awesome, I’m jealous of you guys getting buried. I gotta move north lol
  10. George001
    A lot of areas are a couple degrees colder than the models had us at this time
  11. George001
    37 degrees and heavy rain in Foxborough, MA.
  12. George001
    That’s big, even 1 or 2 degrees can make a huge difference. Just can’t have that low plowing inland.
  13. George001
    How come totals were lowered in eastern mass? The Euro was really good, nam too. Obs showing the low farther west leading to them thinking it will run inland?
  14. George001
    Could the October storm we had in 2011 be a decent analog for this? I remember there was a sharp gradient with that one, I got half a foot or so, just to my SE got barely anything and NW areas (especially elevation) really got buried, 2 feet plus. That storm lacked cold like this one and created it’s own cold air.
  15. George001
    What are some good analogs for this storm with a low looping over the cape?
  16. George001
    Euro looks very similar to Rays final call map
  17. George001
    That’s not even an exaggeration, it has nearly 5 inches of rain for some areas. I know it’s not snowy for us but that’s a really cool solution. Almost like a tropical storm with strong winds, flooding rains, and possibly even thunderstorms.
  18. George001
    Agree, I buy the nams low track and think it has the right idea. Do I think I’m getting 2 feet like it gave me in that earlier run? No, but I think something like that snowfall distribution but toned down especially in eastern areas makes sense.
  19. George001
    Anyways, gfs is way north, easily 100+ miles north of last run with the offshore low.
  20. George001
    Climate change is very much real and is accelerating, but I don’t think that’s why the models are struggling here. The models are struggling because it’s a Miller B.
  21. George001
    I don’t envy the mets who need to forecast this storm but as a weenie, this has been a lot of fun to track. We are less than 2 days out from the start of the storm and the models are still giving me anything from nothing to 2 feet of snow. That’s an insane amount of uncertainty this close in.
  22. George001
    Only about 500 miles west of the Euro
  23. George001
    An interesting thing I noticed for my area looking at the gefs indies was there were more members that gave me nothing but also more 20+ bombs. There aren’t many giving me 6-12.
  24. George001
    If we really get skunked after all guidance converging on a low over the cape 3 days out Im done tracking this winter and moving on to rooting for record heat.
  25. George001
    Doesn’t look great with the Euro insisting on the dual low but I’m not giving up. Low is too strong and the h5 looks really good.
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