George001

Damn, Euro moved way north for the 10th-11th threat. Low plows straight into central PA, strong storm too.

These 0z runs show why qqomega jumped the gun saying that mid March looked boring. Just like that, a low appeared on the OP runs! I wouldn’t call it a blizzard, but a nice moderate snowfall is very possible. Even if it doesn’t pan out, we are tracking a storm. Not boring at all.

Yep, the NAM being that far north this close in is a red flag. It could be wrong yeah, but it’s very much a possible outcome. The other models may not be picking up the convection as well as the NAM is.

Yeah, Boston usually gets screwed with the East wind. I wouldn’t be surprised if they get like 2-3 and 10 miles NW ends up with 8 or something. Still a lot of uncertainty though, if the NAM is right Boston gets nothing.

Gfs looks about the same

I would sign up for that, one big storm and then bring on the warmth.

Canadian ticked south too

This one is going to be a nightmare to forecast. Even a couple degrees off would mean a big difference in expected snowfall.

Yeah, the models don’t look that far apart. Most have the low going over Nantucket. The more north guidance has the low going over the elbow and the gfs is a bit se of Nantucket, but not by much. I know there are big differences in the clown maps when looking at say gfs vs nam, but those clown maps suck and are probably going to be wrong. 10:1 doesn’t work when there is mixing or thermals are marginal, in reality especially for borderline areas they will be lower. Those snow depth maps are more realistic.

Yeah it looks like we are getting closer to a consensus. The gfs has been pretty good with this one so far, even though I highly doubt I’m getting anywhere near a foot like it’s saying (even half a foot is a big stretch). It did have the right idea with the storm coming more north early on while the Euro was all over the place. Regardless of what happens with this one though, the mid month period could be a fun one to track with the MJO going into 8 at a high amplitude. Even if it doesn’t pan out, I bet we will see some wild solutions on the models (No, I’m not going to start a thread nor will I call for a blizzard. I’m done with that fantasy shit).

Fair enough, I agree that I never should have started the thread. It is clear to me at this point that I should be leaning warm until proven otherwise, not calling for cold and snow non stop like I used to. Going by your posts here it appeared that you were on board for phasing until late in the game.

Don’t act like you didn’t buy in, you claimed on your blog that storm had the potential to be one of the biggest storms of the decade.

Enjoy your rain

Even if it was only 15, we get steady ticks north for the next 2 days and all of a sudden you realize….. wait a sec, how did the low end up over Concord? Those small ticks add up to 100+ miles over just a couple days, that’s what happened in March 2017. Just a tick north here, a tick north there and all of a sudden the low went inland.

Yeah, low location was about 30 miles north. These little north ticks matter, they aren’t just noise. I wouldn’t be confident at all in even getting plowable never mind a foot for anywhere in SNE.

Yep, that’s how it starts. A little haircut here and there, then by the time the storm is on our doorstep everything trends towards the NAM. Its not just a clown map hallucination, the low itself took a decent jog north from 18z. If anything, with how much more north the low was I’m surprised the haircut wasn’t bigger south of the pike. A couple more ticks like that and all of a sudden the low is over western MA.

Low location more north too

It’s getting close enough to the storm that I’m going to take a stab at it and make a forecast. My initial thoughts of 4-6 inches looks like it was too aggressive. southern NH/VT: 2-4 inches before going over to sleet and then rain Pike to southern NH/VT: 1-2 inches before going over to rain. Maybe a bit of sleet as well. south of the pike: Mostly rain, maybe a quick burst of non accumulating snow before a quick transition to rain. Where will the low be? I think it’s going over my noggin.

once the north ticks start inside D3, they keep going until verification

I think we will have a good idea of whether to expect the higher end (6-12) or lower end (mostly sleet, maybe a couple inches) after 0z tonight for those of us south of the pike. Looks like we are right on the line right now, im leaning somewhere in the middle, maybe 4-6 inches or so while northern areas get more.

12-16 inches is a lot for an SWFE. As Tblizz likes to say, I think we will see a 50% haircut on all those totals over the next few days. The snow axis will also move north.

Do you think it will come back north?

Nah, I changed my ways. I like warmer weather now. Sure if we actually get a blizzard I’ll be excited about it, but until there is overwhelming evidence (it’s actually snowing out with all guidance locked in) I’m not going to hype it up. In the long range it makes sense to assume any cold look will trend warmer and less snowy as we close in. Since I’m a warm weenie now, I might start making some torch threads when things are pointing in that direction.

Do these maps count sleet as snow? I would imagine a lot of the blue area to the south gets a decent amount of sleet.

Yeah, those 10:1 ratio maps didn’t work out. Snow ratios were much lower, and I don’t think we got as much QPF as the models said either.