George001

Don’t act like you didn’t buy in, you claimed on your blog that storm had the potential to be one of the biggest storms of the decade.

Enjoy your rain

Even if it was only 15, we get steady ticks north for the next 2 days and all of a sudden you realize….. wait a sec, how did the low end up over Concord? Those small ticks add up to 100+ miles over just a couple days, that’s what happened in March 2017. Just a tick north here, a tick north there and all of a sudden the low went inland.

Yeah, low location was about 30 miles north. These little north ticks matter, they aren’t just noise. I wouldn’t be confident at all in even getting plowable never mind a foot for anywhere in SNE.

Yep, that’s how it starts. A little haircut here and there, then by the time the storm is on our doorstep everything trends towards the NAM. Its not just a clown map hallucination, the low itself took a decent jog north from 18z. If anything, with how much more north the low was I’m surprised the haircut wasn’t bigger south of the pike. A couple more ticks like that and all of a sudden the low is over western MA.

Low location more north too

It’s getting close enough to the storm that I’m going to take a stab at it and make a forecast. My initial thoughts of 4-6 inches looks like it was too aggressive. southern NH/VT: 2-4 inches before going over to sleet and then rain Pike to southern NH/VT: 1-2 inches before going over to rain. Maybe a bit of sleet as well. south of the pike: Mostly rain, maybe a quick burst of non accumulating snow before a quick transition to rain. Where will the low be? I think it’s going over my noggin.

once the north ticks start inside D3, they keep going until verification

I think we will have a good idea of whether to expect the higher end (6-12) or lower end (mostly sleet, maybe a couple inches) after 0z tonight for those of us south of the pike. Looks like we are right on the line right now, im leaning somewhere in the middle, maybe 4-6 inches or so while northern areas get more.

12-16 inches is a lot for an SWFE. As Tblizz likes to say, I think we will see a 50% haircut on all those totals over the next few days. The snow axis will also move north.

Do you think it will come back north?

Nah, I changed my ways. I like warmer weather now. Sure if we actually get a blizzard I’ll be excited about it, but until there is overwhelming evidence (it’s actually snowing out with all guidance locked in) I’m not going to hype it up. In the long range it makes sense to assume any cold look will trend warmer and less snowy as we close in. Since I’m a warm weenie now, I might start making some torch threads when things are pointing in that direction.

Do these maps count sleet as snow? I would imagine a lot of the blue area to the south gets a decent amount of sleet.

Yeah, those 10:1 ratio maps didn’t work out. Snow ratios were much lower, and I don’t think we got as much QPF as the models said either.

Yeah, the NAM cuts the low to Chicago.

that’s gotta be nearly an inch of QPF as sleet here on the gfs, damn.

18z eps bumped north, gave much of SNE a 50% haircut.

The trough goes neutral over Texas, and then starts gaining latitude even on these 18z runs. The confluence did strengthen a bit, but it enough to stop the storm from gaining latitude out west? No, also these usually trend north in the short range. I think this trends more north, a good 150-200 miles from now until verification.

The shortwave is trending slower and more amplified, so even if the confluence does trend stronger there isn’t much holding it there. The blocking isn’t all that strong and like the Pope said, it’s east based. Strong storms gain latitude, they don’t just move west to east. To get snow for SNE we need the shortwave to not gain latitude from its position in the Midwest which doesn’t seem likely at all. Sure anything can happen, but at this point all signs point towards the north trend continuing.

It isn’t all that difficult to change. Just look at my posts about sports, I used to be very positive about the direction the Red Sox we’re going in, the front office, etc. but then I was faced with reality, and adjusted my expectations. I can easily do that with weather too, and I will do so. Sure, I’ll track winter storms but will do so with the understanding that most of them won’t snow here. I like rain too, so if it cuts to Montreal that’s great.

Well there isn’t anything we can do about it, so it’s illogical to get upset about it. Hobbies are supposed to be enjoyable, so why not make the choice to enjoy the weather we will get? Post 2016 winters have been dominated for the most part by extreme warmth, and I don’t see any reason why that will stop. There isn’t anything wrong with liking warmer weather.

Nah, I like rain and warmer weather now. Deep down, we know warmth will win out in the end so why not embrace it?

That is if it holds, there is no signs of the north trend stopping. Encouraging 12z runs today for us rain enthusiasts.

Yep, north trend continues.