George001

It will be interesting to see how that plays out. I have heard several long range forecasters favor a more severe winter for New England due to the combination of weak polar vortex and La Niña. It has been a fairly stormy fall pattern this year, very different to what we saw last year with a dry pattern until Feb. I am much more optimistic than usual, but like always we won’t know until it actually happens.

You know your shit and bring a lot to the table in terms of ENSO discussions but dude….. watch it. I don’t like that you are post limited because you actually know what you are talking about, but maybe if you actually tried not being a raging d*ckhead for once in your fucking life things would be better for you here. You are 100% right about misinfo/wishcasters like JB. You aren’t going to actually win in your crusade against these people by being insufferable, you need actual people skills. You want to just call me an idiot and ignore this? Fine, go ahead. I can’t stop you from doing that, I said what needed to be said. Now it’s up to you to decide what you want to do.

Yeah I remember most guidance had November finishing with normal to slightly above normal temps.

BOS: 55-65” NYC: 25-35” PHI: 12-20” DC: 8-15”

We are already seeing some of the differences compared to last year. I don’t remember seeing big snows in the Midwest this early last year.

Yeah it’s a different way of getting there time around because geomag activity is high, not low like it was in 2010. It is my understanding that the expected polar vortex intrusion is being driven by the -QBO (2010 was +QBO) and low North Atlantic sea ice instead. The main reason I like 2010 as an analog though is I see similar potential for the -NAO to amplify the La Niña pattern, leading to a stormy and snowy pattern for northern areas (miller B storm track).

I’m tossing 95 but not 10.

That’s a reasonable assumption to make. I think we will see more bad winters which will drive us crazy, but when things line up….. watch out. I think its coming this year.

There are some really damn good winters in that list

South of NE is more dicey, agree. I like Jan best, but I am not sold on a bad Feb especially for New England and possibly the northern mid atlantic. Gradient patterns can lead to big snows if you are north of the storm track. It is also looking like the polar vortex is going to be especially prone to disruptions this year.

Agree, its no longer a debate whether or not La Niña will develop. We are below the -0.5 threshold on the weeklies in 3 of the 4 ENSO regions, pretty much all the non ONI indices are consistent with La Niña, and the CPC has announced that La Nina conditions are present. So, La Niña is already here. The question is how long does it stay intact and when does it peak? I am hearing some people argue that the La Niña will break down in January and others believe it will remain intact the entire winter. What are your thoughts here? I am very skeptical of the idea it breaks down in January.

Historical precedence argued against this, I remember doing research on this when hearing about all the El Niño hype. 2 years after a strong or super Nino goes -ENSO roughly 80% of the time.

I’m not nearly as negative about Feb as many here, but that surprises me. Just curious, what do you think many of us who are less optimistic about Feb are missing? Or are you just less optimistic about January? edit: I just saw your post raising concerns about the pac jet for January.

I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a repeat of last Feb with storms taking more of a northern track. I am all in on a big January though.

I am very excited for this winter. I do not except really any snow until the second half of December but strongly believe that January will be a burial.

Agree. If we do get a fast start to winter I would expect that to not only continue into January, but would expect January to be the snowiest month of the winter. The strat stuff actually lines up with January better than December anyways when taking into account the lag period.

Well…. technically 96-97 was a bad winter even in Boston

Yeah it takes time to build snowpack. Right now it is slowly building over western Canada, and is beginning to expand south and east. This process will continue until the snow arrives in New England by mid-late December.

below normal temps for New England in the La Niña/-QBO composite….. sign me up

Either way 2014 isn’t an analog I would use, but I do think it’s worth keeping an open mind about +ENSO analogs if other factors line up. I would prefer a negative PDO though

For what it’s worth this no longer looks like it will be a low ACE season.

Things are looking promising for a big December.

The only thing I disagree with here is the negative NAO. Our big -NAO years like 09-10 and 10-11 were near the solar minimum. We are descending, but solar activity is still a lot higher than it was during those years. I would lean towards more of a neutral to slightly positive NAO. The more important factor is the fall pattern, we have diverged from the bone dry fall pattern that continued into the winter. We saw a mid fall shift from an extended dry stretch (leading to drought conditions), and it has shifted to a stormy pattern with frequent coastals. This combined with the other factors mentioned has me very optimistic about this upcoming winter for New England, even if the negative NAO idea doesn’t pan out. When I think of a big snow pattern the first thing I think of is NOT a Greenland block, it’s a tall ridge over Montana.

PDO is still solidly negative, but it is less negative than it was last October.

I got buried in 12-13