George001

AI gfs is more amplified

I’d be happy with a repeat of the early Jan 2018 storm. Yeah it left some on the table, but it was still a blizzard and still had over a foot of snow. If we get a repeat of that, I’m looking at reaching my seasonal average snowfall by Feb 2nd. No matter what happens, still a lot of winter left.

The low moving east to west into PA won’t happen, but the second track isn’t impossible. I don’t like it, but it can and has happened before. It’s probably going to be east of that though.

We have our differences of opinion, but hes a good dude and id like him to stick around. So @TauntonBlizzard2013, before making a post downplaying or calling off a storm, I strongly recommend doing shrooms first to break down the mental barriers, view yourself objectively and ask “am I downplaying this because i genuinely believe what I’m saying, or is it a form of coping”?

Yeah, surface temps != ratios. I remember a few years ago those kuchera maps gave me 10-12 in a WAA event, I ended up with around 7 and was disappointed. I like the approach old school mets like Bernie Rayno use. He uses models as tools to help make forecasts, but his #1 tool is the depth of knowledge and experience he has as a meteorologist who has been doing it for decades. I recall him mentioning in a video a week ago he believed the storm would take more of a northern track due to the overall setup and his previous experience as a meteorologist who has seen this setup before.

Early Jan 2018 had a huge miller A that occluded too far south. Still was a great storm, but was 12-16 rather than a widespread 2 footer due to it blowing its load too early.

I’m eyeballing 17-18 inches. Burial

Canadian is also more amplified

Yeah the drifting makes it tough. I tried measuring in different spots, got 15, 17, 11, 12, and 13 inches.

That one is worth watching for sure, we are in a cold and amplified pattern.

Feet of snow and the Patriots are headed to the Super Bowl, it doesn’t get better than this

I’m at 8.5 inches (just measured). Already the biggest event in 4 years and still have a long way to go

Holy shit that’s a burial

I remember hearing on other places that the high pressure would suppress it to the south. They said that a northern track would not happen, and DC would not mix.

2 feet of snow + a Pats W, let’s do it

Yeah it’s just snow, it’s not that big of a deal. We have all of February and March so it’s not like winter is anywhere near over. I missed a huge storm when I went skiing in Colorado years ago, didn’t really give a shit because I was too busy having a blast skiing with my friends. Now if the Pats lose, I’m setting my house on fire.

If I had to choose between no snow at all tomorrow and a Patriots win vs 2 feet of snow and a Patriots loss, I’m picking the Patriots win every time. As much as I like the snow, Boston sports comes first.

I don’t get all the panic over the NAM. Personally, if I get 15 inches of snow and then taint I would consider that a huge win.

Id like to get that 100 miles SE.

Yeah, those daily 7am liquor store trips take a toll. I don’t drink, but I made a couple friends during my time in the nuthouse, and they called it “alcohol brain”. I’m not judging…. I have “weed brain” (years of my nightly 100mg+ RSO concentrate ritual… it definitely took a toll). Thats why I stick to shrooms now.

The A in Miller A = asshole The B in Miller B = burial

Note to self: Do NOT write off winter and check out in mid Jan, even if things don’t look great and it started slow. Peak climo in SNE is late Jan to mid Feb, historically that’s the timeframe where most of our huge storms happen. Winter doesn’t just end after mid January just because it’s a La Niña. 17-18, 21-22, hell even last year (not snowy, but our snowiest month was Feb, not December).

Looks like I nailed it besides the blizzard thing (good chance the winds aren’t strong enough). Regardless, since this post the storm has trended hundreds of miles north on the models. This is going to be a burial, and I don’t think we are done. February is the snowiest month of the year for my area in terms of average monthly snowfall. If we do get a polar vortex split like @40/70 Benchmark has been talking about, March could be interesting too.

yeah, that’s worth keeping an eye on. What really caught my attention is it is a miller B, not a miller A.

Mixing getting into SNE is absolutely possible. In huge storms like this it can and does happen a lot, and the trough axis is pretty far west. I’m not saying it’s going to happen, but I’m keeping an open mind about the possibility given the setup and model trends. That said, if it happens it is what it is. I will be happy for the north.