George001

Yeah, big snows for northern areas.

Yeah I’d like to see the gfs start moving towards the Euro and Canadian tonight and tomorrow

The windshield wiper effect is strong with this one. We are only 4 days out and I have no idea what is going to happen. We just don’t know……

I’ve seen these types of events surprise. It’s a progressive setup but these quick hitters can pack a punch when things break right. Often when that does happen we don’t expect it, and it happens in the very short range. It’s definitely worth keeping an eye on.

Big ice?

Yep. He’s not wrong that a snowless December in La Niña bodes poorly for the rest of winter, but a lot can happen in 3 weeks.

I don’t agree. Yes, the deep -IOD is a warm signal but it has weakened significantly since earlier in the fall, and the other factors are more tilted towards cold than say 89-90. 89-90 was a strong La Niña, this is a weak La Niña. Also, the PDO has risen a lot in recent weeks to weakly negative rather than strongly negative. I will concede that Feb has warmer risks, but think we are getting slammed in Jan. Maybe 1 warm week, but I think we go BN temp with well AN snow in the east, especially for northern areas. It will be interesting to see how things play out.

I never really thought December would be a huge snow month for the I-95 corridor, I thought it would be a good month though. I still think that’s the right idea. However I disagree that there is nothing at all to support I-95 snowstorms in the next 14+ days. There is a window next weekend. Depends on how much that northern energy digs. I do however think we are seeing early signs that some of the early assumptions that you made about this upcoming winter could end up being wrong. Just curious what your thoughts are on that? Are you adjusting your Jan-Mar thoughts based on some of the things we have seen recently with the PDO, MJO, SOI and polar vortex? Or are you sticking to your guns?

Correct, the #1 ingredient when looking for snow is cold. The track was good for this storm, and I rained. Airmass is everything

If you hate twitter so much why not just stay off it? You know the deal with twitter and what kind of people are pushing these agendas. Everything is exaggerated to being historic or record breaking, that’s what gets clicks.

I know the models aren’t showing many hits right now, but they are also showing a lot of northern energy coming down over the next couple of weeks. Northern energy patterns can be tricky, storms pop up out of nowhere sometimes.

Storms like this are always tricky. Even 1 or 2 degrees in marginal setups like this makes a huge difference for areas on the edge.

I disagree with comparing this year to recent winters. The fall pattern has been different, it has been more seasonable to slightly BN rather than a torch, and has been stormier than last year. There are no guarantees in weather, but I feel a lot better about this upcoming winter than the past few years.

Ah that’s too bad. Hopefully they get a good amount of snow on Tuesday and start building the snowpack.

So it looks like my area is on the outside looking in on this one. How are things looking for Wachusett? I might go on Thursday morning if the conditions are good.

It looks like you were right, im gonna be taking the L on this one. Oh well, I thought I was going to get a few inches but that is looking unlikely now.

That’s the right way to look at it. We have more storm threats ahead of this. This one looks like it’s going to be for northern areas.

Yeah the latest guidance has a weaker than average polar vortex into mid Jan.

Euro is a nuke

18z gfs looks great for you

Where do you want the low to be?

Why can’t you be happy for the north?

Be patient, things will be different this year. That was in the past.

I stand corrected, but I am glad to see it looks like they will keep doing well. I am going to be skiing a lot in December, so I have a good reason to be excited for the north. Plenty of time for my area to get snow later in the month.

I hope the GFS has the right idea. Great run for the north, would be a great start for ski resorts.