George001

Yep, nice call

The sample size isn’t large enough to know for sure one way or another, but given that AGW is accelerating rather than just steadily increasing, it’s worth keeping an open mind about his ideas. The snow decline is already happening in some southern areas, and it started before 2016. It’s a logical assumption to make that with additional warming since then, some areas farther north reached a tipping point. There isn’t anything wrong with discussing ideas about what the future holds and trying to figure out what is going on. There is no malicious agenda pushing going on here. If Bluewave is right he’s right, if he’s wrong he’s wrong. Maybe he’s right about some things, wrong about others (I would bet on this one). We all have our biases, but Bluewave is a fairly objective poster.

I disagree with his methodology. Even if he is right, it won’t be because of a 2nd la nada winter in a row. Basing a winter forecast strictly off ENSO is already dubious to begin with, when ENSO is that weak it is a better idea to rely on other things. Also, like Chuck said the sample size is way too small. Personally, I haven’t even began to narrow down my analog years yet. I just think it is way too early.

Agreed, I hope Snowman19 is right. I’ll gladly roll the dice with ENSO neutral.

Unfortunately too late as winter ended 3 weeks ago, but this is good news for next year if it continues.

Yeah we needed this setup a month ago

Looks like a classic elevation storm. Some guidance is more aggressive (RGEM/CMC) for eastern areas but I am very skeptical of that outcome in mid April with marginal temps. I would like to be wrong but at this time of year I have an “I’ll believe it when I see it” attitude about modeled snow.

What ENSO state would you favor right now? I think another La Niña is very possible. Probably wouldn’t be very strong though

Looks like a classic early spring elevation event.

967mb low over the cape

Hopefully it stays weak if a Nino does develop.

Not in New England. I am of the opinion that we are getting slammed in the first half of March.

Yes, there will be an Archambault event in the Feb 26th-Mar 10th timeframe. The pattern grows much more amplified on the models, and this time there isn’t any blocking which is a good thing. Blocking sucks! I’m sick of the south getting all the snow.

I’m not sure when it will happen, but I do believe we will get an Archambault event before the end of winter. Like Anthony said, something big is going to happen.

Farther north yeah but not for my area. There are exceptions but usually we are done by late March.

Why are so many of you throwing in the towel? March is a winter month, we also have the rest of Feb. it sucks that the 20th threat went to shit but that isn’t the end.

Even the mid Atlantic might be in trouble with this one. It doesn’t even look like a strong storm anymore, no phasing at all, weak and strung out.

Yes they did, tossing the gfs/gefs was a mistake. Did way better with this than the Euro and Canadian. AI models did well too. I know I said yesterday we still have a shot but unfortunately things have only gotten worse on the models since then. This threat is cooked

I don’t think those 2 foot runs are coming back, but a significant storm is still on the table. If we zoom out and look at where we are right now, most guidance is about 100 miles SE of where we want it at 4 days out. That’s….. not that bad. The issue is those earlier runs got everyone’s hopes up, and it can be tough to let that go. If the models were 200 miles offshore and bumped north over the past 24 hours, despite being in the same spot the mood would be a lot different.

Agreed. It hasn’t been very snowy, but it has been cold and snow retention has been good. It actually feels like winter this year. I’d rather have 80% of normal snow, BN temps and consistent snow cover than 110% of normal snow, well AN temps and any snow that falls melts in a few days. Certainly no 14-15 or 10-11, but it’s not a rat in my eyes.

You gotta be fucking kidding me

It’s not terrible, but it does have a NW bias. The key takeaway for me is there is a lot of room for error in regards to storm track. I think I would do really well even with the low going over the canal. The key is getting the storm close enough.

Wow, that is true arctic air. What I’m curious about is if a similar longwave pattern to the early Jan threat would work better now. Maybe shorter wavelengths will help?

Gives me a foot of snow despite the low plowing into central mass. Definitely would take the under with that track

Snow east of the low? LOL