George001

I’m keeping expectations low, but definitely going to keep an eye on this one the next couple of days.

I disagree with this, its more of a motivation than a capacity thing.

You are objectively correct, eastern mass squandered a very cold December in terms of snowfall. It is also really not that big of a deal, it’s just snow. I wanted more snow but it is what it is, on to January.

I know a lot of people here don’t like him, but the Pope knows his shit. Yes, his meteorology background is unconventional, but that doesn’t make the knowledge he has any less real. He may end up being wrong, but as someone who was (and still is) pounding the table for a big January, the concerns he brought up in regards to the thermals are real and valid issues. If the +EPO strengthens/pac trends worse, he absolutely could be right. Disagreeing is fine, but its important to take a scientific approach, not an emotional one. This also means using guidance as tools rather than looking for a quick dopamine hit (I’m guilty of this myself, but am actively working on changing my mindset).

I’m feeling pretty good about this. I would favor the lower end for Boston and the higher end for NYC because of how December played out, but I don’t see any reason to deviate from the general idea of a great winter but not historic (eg 95-96, 14-15, 10-11) in terms of snow totals. Cold air has not been an issue, and there are signs the pattern could turn more stormy in early Jan with hints that the STJ will become more active.

Yeah this month underperformed. The late north trends for this past storm were nice, but I only got 3 or so inches and it’s probably going to be gone unless Monday trends a lot colder. Oh well, the January pattern looks promising for a minor threat (4-8 ish if everything breaks right) around new years and a bigger storm on the 6th.

You are getting over a foot. Congrats

That radar screams overperformer

could what’s going on to our south (mix line more north) be a good sign for us?

I’m not super invested in the result (given it will probably melt soon and it’s not going to be a lot of snow here), but I have been horribly wrong about how I thought this storm would play out (I thought the modeled NW-SE track was bullshit, and it’s clearly not). So I am invested in this from the perspective of someone looking to use this as a learning experience. We haven’t had a lot of blocking in recent years so I am out of practice, but this reminds me a bit of the late March 2018 setup where LI got buried and the dry air won out farther NE. I’ll take a stab at it. I’m leaning towards the cold dry air winning out for my area, thinking more 2-3 than 4-6 here. Farther west is a different story, this one looks good for you guys. The radar does look more juiced than guidance, which could potentially lead to the storm overperforming for areas where the dry air doesn’t win out.

Definitely walking a tightrope here to get a sustained winter period heading into the new years. We need not only for things to break right with this storm, but also need enough of a secondary to pop for the next storm to limit snow melt. Not impossible, but I’m keeping expectations low for now.

Eh it’s all going to melt in 2 days anyways, even if everything goes right we aren’t getting more than what 4-6? Oh well, on to the next threat. Actual snow that sticks around for a month >>>>>> instant gratification from models like the NAM with a known NW bias printing 8 inches of digital snow.

Yeah what a waste, sucks but at least we aren’t getting a 2 foot blizzard and wasting it. Probably only a few inches here, will look nice for a couple of days before the melt due to the cutter. 2 feet of snow then a cutter would be awful, there would be patches of dirty, filthy snow. Fortunately, there won’t be enough snow for that to happen.

Yeah the NW to SE track we are seeing modeled is very rare. I’m skeptical that’s right

Gfs north

Being negative for this one for us is realistic, this has looked like a Maine storm for a while now. I’m more excited about the period after Christmas, not expecting much of anything with this one.

We had a cold period, then a warm period, and now it looks like it will be stormy/variable. So far It’s progressing like a normal New England late fall/early winter period. Social media likes to exaggerate and sensationalize, it’s really just normal seasonal progression. What’s wrong with saying the weather has been normal and unremarkable?

The upcoming pattern looks favorable for New England. This is different than the early December period, climo is no longer hostile now that it is late December.

It’s hard to take anything good or bad for that system seriously when just yesterday it had rains to Maine

Yeah this has always been a Maine storm

Yep way too early to write off the rest of December, never mind Jan and Feb

It’s too early to say whether January will be cold and snowy or not. What we do know is the polar vortex is now to expected to strengthen well above average levels, which favors +NAO conditions. That’s a reasonable baseline to operate from when assessing the expected January pattern. But it remains unclear if we will go country wide torch (mild and rainy east) or +TNH (cold, snowy east). Based on historical precedence of -PNA La Niña Decembers transitioning to +PNA (or less -PNA) Januarys, I am in the +TNH camp. As always, it is important to be open to adapting as we get new information. Historical precedence > long range guidance, but if the warm signal strengthens for Jan and we are near new years, then it’s time to reevaluate.

This is a Maine storm.

I agree with pumping the breaks on the warmth. However, as someone who pounded the table for a big January I am keeping an open mind to the idea it may not be as frigid as I expected. I do still think it will be a big month for northern areas. We will know more after the Christmas timeframe.

I know we don’t always see eye to eye, but this is a good observation and explains why we are seeing a relaxation period instead of a wall to wall cold December. It was initially expected to spend the entire month in phase 8, but things changed. It’s important to update and adjust our expectations accordingly with new information.