George001

That is unfortunate, people who intentionally spread blatant misinformation like this should have their accounts flagged for intentional misinformation, people like this are a major contributor to the downfall of society. It has gotten a lot worse since the pandemic as people spend more time online and less time in the real world.

We are near the solar maximum, so the exact opposite. I am almost inclined to think this was a brain fart and he meant maximum. I understand the reasons why people spread disinformation, but this is something you can disprove with a quick google search. Usually when people spread bullshit they are a bit smarter about it. I know many of us are extremely anti Bastardi (for good reasons), but even he would never do something like this. The disinformation he spreads takes a bit more than a quick google search to disprove. It’s absolutely still bullshit, but he’s smart enough about it that people buy in and listen to him. I would imagine the guy claiming we are at a solar minimum would have a bunch of tweets correcting him, no?

Agreed, I would bet on a moderate to strong -PDO winter, similar to last year. The question is what does this actually mean? Cold ENSO -PDO combo is a mixed bag, it’s the warm ENSO/-PDO combo that is a death sentence for east coast snow prospects. Jan 22 had a -2.4 PDO….. and so did December 11. Some winters are clear cut going in like 23-24 and 14-15, I don’t think this going to be one of those. Speaking of 14-15, things look WAY different than they did in the summer of 14. Good call on the skepticism of the 13-14 analog last year, it was a cold winter but was also dry. I remember you brought up the fall conditions being completely different than fall of 13 as a counterargument when I and some others argued that 13-14 was a great analog. It had value, but it definitely wasn’t as good of an analog as I thought. For this year given the information we currently have I’m looking at last year, 11-12, 21-22, 08-09, 13-14, 01-02, 12-13 as early analogs. What are your early thoughts for analogs?

Hopefully we can get this low strength and track in Feb

After reading Rays latest blog post I am feeling a lot better about winter prospects for my area. To an extent we have more room for error when it comes to non benchmark storm tracks. Last Feb is a good example of this, the storms were messy and took more of a northern track. It got really icy, but it ended up being a good winter month here regardless. Farther north it was an epic month because they stayed all snow unlike near Boston.

What are your early thoughts for analogs? I haven’t been following things too closely the past couple of months, but reading the past few pages and latest guidance it looks like things have trended more in favor of a La Niña rather than cold neutral. You think ENSO will be weaker or stronger than last year?

As someone who agrees with a lot of the points you are making, dude you need to cut this shit out. I’m all for calling idiots idiots, but look at Yanksfans post history, he is not some dumbass climate change denier. Seems to me like he was just busting your balls, that kind of response to a joke is uncalled for.

I agree with Bluewave for the most part, but calling most of the people here dumb isnt productive nor is it true. Don’t get me wrong, blatant climate change denial is dumb, and I am not afraid to call people who believe that bullshit dumb. However, im not seeing that here. As someone who agrees with a good 90% of what Bluewave says, I actually think it is a good thing that people are challenging his theories and offering different points of view. There is room for debate in regards to the degree of attribution and how much our recent bad stretch is due to climate change vs just plain old bad luck.

I would rather have a repeat of this past winter than 09-10.

Yep, nice call

The sample size isn’t large enough to know for sure one way or another, but given that AGW is accelerating rather than just steadily increasing, it’s worth keeping an open mind about his ideas. The snow decline is already happening in some southern areas, and it started before 2016. It’s a logical assumption to make that with additional warming since then, some areas farther north reached a tipping point. There isn’t anything wrong with discussing ideas about what the future holds and trying to figure out what is going on. There is no malicious agenda pushing going on here. If Bluewave is right he’s right, if he’s wrong he’s wrong. Maybe he’s right about some things, wrong about others (I would bet on this one). We all have our biases, but Bluewave is a fairly objective poster.

I disagree with his methodology. Even if he is right, it won’t be because of a 2nd la nada winter in a row. Basing a winter forecast strictly off ENSO is already dubious to begin with, when ENSO is that weak it is a better idea to rely on other things. Also, like Chuck said the sample size is way too small. Personally, I haven’t even began to narrow down my analog years yet. I just think it is way too early.

Agreed, I hope Snowman19 is right. I’ll gladly roll the dice with ENSO neutral.

Unfortunately too late as winter ended 3 weeks ago, but this is good news for next year if it continues.

Yeah we needed this setup a month ago

Looks like a classic elevation storm. Some guidance is more aggressive (RGEM/CMC) for eastern areas but I am very skeptical of that outcome in mid April with marginal temps. I would like to be wrong but at this time of year I have an “I’ll believe it when I see it” attitude about modeled snow.

What ENSO state would you favor right now? I think another La Niña is very possible. Probably wouldn’t be very strong though

Looks like a classic early spring elevation event.

967mb low over the cape

Hopefully it stays weak if a Nino does develop.

Not in New England. I am of the opinion that we are getting slammed in the first half of March.

Yes, there will be an Archambault event in the Feb 26th-Mar 10th timeframe. The pattern grows much more amplified on the models, and this time there isn’t any blocking which is a good thing. Blocking sucks! I’m sick of the south getting all the snow.

I’m not sure when it will happen, but I do believe we will get an Archambault event before the end of winter. Like Anthony said, something big is going to happen.

Farther north yeah but not for my area. There are exceptions but usually we are done by late March.

Why are so many of you throwing in the towel? March is a winter month, we also have the rest of Feb. it sucks that the 20th threat went to shit but that isn’t the end.