Jump to content

George001

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    7,034

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by George001

  1. George001
    Yeah it will be warm. The question is more the magnitude of the warmth as that will make a big difference in terms of how much of the precip is wet vs white. There is a big difference between say +2 AN and +5-6 AN.
  2. George001
    I buy that for the mid atlantic but even up here? I’m concerned it will be too warm for sustained winter and we aren’t going to get the nickle and dime events we normally get.
  3. George001
    Imo the following winter is the one to watch for northern areas, not this upcoming one. I don’t see the roaring STJ dying off quickly especially if the El Niño lingers into the spring before collapsing into La Niña. When you combine the lingering STJ with a La Niña, big things can happen for northern areas. When it comes to sustained cold in an El Niño this powerful, I need to see it to believe it. Historical precedence for these super ninos is a warm east.
  4. George001
    Super El Niño is bad for sustained cold, it isn’t necessarily bad for snow. For say NYC and SE you guys I think could actually do well snow wise because all it takes is one big storm to get you over your seasonal snow totals. I would also think the storm track with the active super Nino driven STJ could be good for the mid Atlantic. Super Nino is bad for coastal SNE and ski areas for 2 reasons however: 1. More of our snow consists of nickel and dime events than huge storms, so the super Nino tradeoff (warmer overall, very few nickle and dime events, elevated risk of huge storms) hits northern areas harder. This is the bigger issue for ski areas, as well as the worse snow retention due to it being milder overall. 2. The active southern jet doesn’t necessarily push storms up the coast if the “big one” does hit , often they slide out after hitting the mid Atlantic rather than coming up (see Jan 2016), and when they do come up they tend to run inland a bit and bring in warmer air, bringing rain to coastal New England. This is the bigger issue for areas like Boston, the juiced up Miller A track often isn’t great here. We tend to do better with Miller Bs and SWFE events. I’m not optimistic for my area and the ski areas, but in NYC and the mid atlantic I don’t think how things are developing is necessarily bad in terms of snow prospects.
  5. George001
    Yep, we are going to shatter the old records. The daily Nino 3.4 already is above 2C before August, and the subsurface warmth continues to go nuclear. I’m taking the over on ONI and RONI >3C
  6. George001
    Wow this was back in March, well done. Interestingly the spring predictability barrier went the other way in that guidance was underestimating the strength of the El Niño. Imo this was a very well predicted event, it tipped its hand early and guidance already was flagging a potential super Nino in late winter/early spring. The biggest events really do tip their hand early, I recall the subsurface began warming as early as February. At the time I didn’t think much of it, but in hindsight that was a sign of things to come.
  7. George001
    If the model projections are correct this event will be the strongest in history by a wide margin. In my opinion this could actually make analog forecasting tougher, because even other super Ninos like 2015-2016, 1997-1998, 1982-1983 have a decent chance ending up a full 1C weaker than this event. I’d still use those years because they are the closest matches we have to this one, but this truly is a once in a lifetime Godzilla El Niño. I’m thinking we see almost a more extreme version of those super Nino years (eg even stronger STJ than 97-98), but I’m really not sure what the implications are. What are your thoughts? As a northern skier I’m not too happy about this developing Godzilla nino, but at the same time I’ve always been drawn to extreme weather events, so it will be interesting to keep following this and see how things play out regardless. This one has a good what 5 months left of strengthening and is already above 2C on the dallies for ENSO 3.4, 3C for ENSO 3, and 4C for ENSO 1.2, and the subsurface is much more impressive than even 97-98. So really no ambiguity here, this Nino already is a beast and will continue to break records.
  8. George001
    Joe Bastardi is a grifter, you did your research and know what you are talking about so you can see through his bullshit. He’s not dumb (his credentials and knowledge are legit), but his goal is to get clicks and $$$ for his business, not truth. It works, he’s a good businessman, not a good long range forecaster. Hyperbole and promises of big winters in populated areas (new england) get the clicks and money.
  9. George001
    I get the whole wanting to get clicks and money thing (the east coast is a populated area with a bigger market)…. But for me as a skier I want a realistic forecast, not wishcasting or doom casting. That’s why I don’t pay attention to what they are saying on social media, I have a select few people I listen to on here and elsewhere and block out the noise when it comes to winter forecasts. I care about results and track record, so clickbaiters like JB don’t get my views. I know we don’t always see eye to eye, but I do think you are correct that the super Nino + -PDO = snowy narrative is a load of horseshit for several reasons: 1. 57-58 and 65-66 happened in an older, cooler climate. 57-58 in particular I looked at the temp profiles, and they were more borderline than cold east, it isn’t clear to me one way or another whether a repeat of that pattern would favor a snowy outcome in today’s climate. It’s not like 14-15 where a repeat of that would be cold + snowy east today. 2. Those years are cherry-picked. I haven’t heard one peep about 72-73 and 23-24, which were also -PDO super El Niños and horrific winters in the east. If you are going to be objective, you include all the -PDO strong or super El Niño years, not just the ones you like. Cherry-picking data to push a narrative is something I cannot stand, I see this bullshit all the time in sports too with young players and or prospects. What I and or others want to happen is irrelevant, the data is the data, and it is unscientific to cherry pick to fit a narrative. Also, weren’t those cherry picked years more strongly -NAO (I’m pretty sure 65-66 was)? From my understanding the part of the solar cycle we are in favors more of a neutral to positive NAO, not negative (this was brought up last year, and the NAO was indeed slightly positive this past winter. Actually the past few winters have been +NAO). Chucks NAO formula last I checked predicts an NAO close to neutral (Chuck, feel free to correct me if I’m wrong here). I know there are mixed signals, but the point is there isn’t really much support for the NAO to be as negative like it was during some of the snowier big Nino years. I would consider that to be a big issue when years like say 09-10 are brought up as well.
  10. George001
    I’m not sure why I’m seeing people touting the -PDO + super nino combo as a cold/snowy signal for the east when that isn’t supported by historical precedence. The super nino obviously isn’t going anywhere, so I would think those rooting for a snowier outcome in the east would want the PDO to rise, not remain negative.
  11. George001
    Yeah, this El Niño is developing like a stronger version of the 97-98 super Nino.
  12. George001
    I’m not sure why you got roasted for that. Imo, the base assumption for 27-28 should be a fairly powerful La Niña until proven otherwise. We haven’t had a strong La Niña since the 10-11 winter, but I would not be surprised at all if that changes come fall 2027.
  13. George001
    I’m skeptical that we don’t get a major La Niña snap back after a Godzilla El Niño. There is a good chance this El Niño becomes the strongest event since the industrial era.
  14. George001
    This is good advice. I started doing DBT as a patient fairly recently and it helps a lot. Having poor emotional regulation really sucks, it got me banned from countless online forums (multiple weather forums, sports forums, reddit, etc). Once I stopped blaming everyone else and realized the common denominator was me it clicked. I got help, since doing that I’ve started letting things go more. It’s still a work in progress but I haven’t challenged anyone to a duel in a while so that’s good.
  15. George001
    That’s certainly possible. Imo the issue my area (near Boston) has in super ninos isn’t just the temps, it’s temps + storm track (miller A setups which are more common in super Ninos are very prone to screwing us). In Michigan you have more buffer room with the temps than we do, and if we do get some MC forcing it could lead to more of an inside runner track which is good to you guys out west.
  16. George001
    Agree, it’s absolutely worth being open minded about this. I noticed a typical El Niño summer is cooler here, it has been a very hot summer more typical of a La Niña. My shitbox has no AC so this is something that is very noticeable for me. Like you said there is no disagreement about this early developing El Niño turning into one of the strongest super ninos on record, but even super ninos can have MC forcing. We saw it in the 2015-2016 super Nino when the super Nino + west pac warm pool MC forcing combined to produce one of the warmest Decembers ever in the east. 2015-2016 was a well coupled super Nino by every metric, and it had residual MC forcing in December. I’m not sure why there is so much resistance to idea. Both things can be true. It’s a powerful El Niño pattern that is driving the quiet Atlantic hurricane season + busy pacific hurricane season (classic strong El Niño signature), but there are other factors at play too that are interacting with the developing El Niño. There’s a reason we aren’t seeing the typical El Niño temp profile in the east this summer.
  17. George001
    The issue I’m having here is Im not seeing how they would have fixed the whole mean smoothing extreme anomalies thing (something that is inherently higher risk in an extreme tail ENSO event) since 2023. Maybe im wrong and am underestimating the upgrades, but im at a point where i need to see it to believe it. On the other hand, elevated risk does not equal guaranteed, there is a world where Bluewave is right from a probability standpoint but the winter ends up only being slightly AN like the European guidance mean has right now because that extremely warm month that often happens in super ninos just doesn’t happen this year. You are correct that we don’t have statistical proof of the current versions biases in ninos yet. Thats a valid point, so the best we can do at this point is make an educated guess. I still think it’s worth trying.
  18. George001
    Imo this reads more as an experienced long range guy using pattern recognition to detect model biases than a warm bias. Euro has the classic super Nino warm north + big GOA low + cooler south + wet with raging STJ signal. It makes sense that the mean may be smoothing things too much in an extreme tail event like this, hence the warmer risks Bluewave is raising concerns about. If there is MC forcing as well we could see a very warm month (like December in 2015) that pulls the anomalies from slightly AN to extremely AN. I like the cold and snow as much as anyone, but Bluewave brings up a good point here and it’s worth taking seriously.
  19. George001
    ONI of 1.0 is noteworthy this early. It’s on par with 15-16 and ahead of 97-98, 82-83 and 72-73. Even the RONI of 0.5 is impressive at this stage, most El Niños don’t develop until much later.
  20. George001
    Depends on where you live. For my area weak El Niño is the sweet spot, and really weak ENSO is best (the top 2 ENSO states are weak El Niño and weak La Niña). ENSO has a pretty weak correlation though here. The only time I really lower expectations for winter due to ENSO here is if it’s a super Nino. I’ve been saying for a while I would rather roll the dice with a strong La Niña than a super Nino here. I would bet on the 27-28 winter producing more snow here than the 26-27 winter. All we really know for 27-28 is it won’t be a super Nino, since 26-27 will be and we don’t see multi year super ninos. I do think there is an elevated chance for a strong La Niña in 27-28 like @PhiEaglesfan712 is saying, but it’s not a guarantee.
  21. George001
    Adam overweights ENSO. That works in super Nino years like this, 23-24, 15-16 etc, but outside of that it fails. It’s especially egregious to do that during weak ENSO like this past winter (weak La Niña). So yeah, Adam is probably going to be more right than not this year not because his process is good, but because his process happens to work during super ninos. That said, sometimes over analysis can be harmful. At a high level super ninos are warm and wet in the east, whether they are east based, basin wide, +PDO, -PDO etc. This is where I agree with him saying it won’t be a difficult forecast this winter. It’s ok though, we got a ton of snow this past winter and the past 2 winters have been cold, so im ok with the warm lovers getting their way this year.
  22. George001
    It’s early but it’s fair to say as of right now things don’t look good given what is going on with the El Niño.
  23. George001
    Thats certainly possible they would have been better for your area now. Thats a fair point about the increased moisture nowadays. Glad to hear you are enjoying your summer. There are lots of fun things to do in the summer like fishing, hiking etc.
  24. George001
    I don’t even disagree with Adam about this upcoming winter in particular (the raging super El Niño forecast is backed up by current obs + guidance, it’s already approaching borderline strong territory in June). No issue with 97-98 as an analog either, but calling you a wishcaster for claiming 09-10 is an analog when that winter wasn’t even good for you is…. out there. I don’t see why having years like 09-10 and 57-58 as ENSO analogs is so crazy, it’s the weenie implication that those analogs = an eastern burial that is an unsupported leap. Those were strong El Niños (57-58 a high end strong event), wet, and neither were frigid years like 14-15 (Adam is right to push back on the people calling that season an analog). Hell, it could be argued 57-58 wouldn’t even be that good of a winter today if we ran back that same pattern and adjusted for CC. Sure, this El Niño is stronger and more east based than 09-10, but it’s not crazy to include it as an analog. Including it as an analog does NOT mean “the mid Atlantic is getting buried again”, that required an insane sequence of luck that likely won’t be repeated in any of our lifetimes much like 14-15 in Boston. 09-10 wasn’t that cold either, it was near normal temps. I don’t think that’s a wishcast analog. 09-10 without the severe -NAO (my understanding is we are in the opposite solar phase to that year) may not even be that good of a winter. I don’t know…. If you dig into these analogs more closely there are ways to debunk the weenie narratives without name calling. On the other hand, 97-98 is an excellent analog, that was an eastern based super Nino which is a strong match to how this event is developing. However, as several people pointed out that doesn’t necessarily mean snowless. A 97-98 type pattern with a bit less warmth (would need some of the non ENSO factors to break right for this) could absolutely lead to a normal snow winter. The seasonal models are likely too cold, but the coastal track and wet eastern winter pattern is in line with ENSO. The big question is how much of that precip will be snow vs rain. I’m personally on the warm and BN snow side of the argument, but for fucks sake it’s at least worth hearing people with differing opinions out. Adams ENSO posts have been solid, but ya know it’s uh possible to just ignore weenies if you don’t like them and enjoy the summer if you like warmer weather. A lot of people like it warm and aren’t huge fans of the cold and snow, and those people mostly are spending time outside and couldn’t care less about what people post online about the weather.
  25. George001
    DC-NYC yeah but Boston is a bit different in that average snowfall is in the low 40s, so our area really needs either 1 big one + several smaller events or 2 big ones. In super ninos we don’t usually see those smaller ones, and the bigger ones tend to be more Miller A due to the strong southern jet which often run inland a bit and rain in Boston or go out to sea. Thats why these super ninos tend to be not great for us. Not only do we not get those minor events that add up in super ninos, the storm track when the big one does hit if it does often screws us. It’s basically the opposite of the southern mid Atlantic, they tend to get fucked over by Miller Bs and clean up in miller As, coastal SNE cleans up in miller Bs and often gets fucked over in miller As. This is a big reason why I’m not too thrilled about the upcoming super Nino for my area, but we will see how things play out. Metfan was saying in the other thread some of the long range seasonal guidance was showing a coastal track, I’d like to see that on guidance come November.
×
×
  • Create New...