George001

This is interesting, so basically climate change is leading to more La Ninas and stronger ones? I remember reading something about there being a link between more extreme ENSO events in general and climate change. That kind of makes sense, often there is overlap between stronger events and multi year Nina’s. I’m curious if climate change is causing stronger Nina’s which in turn leads to more multi year Nina’s, or is it the other way around? Regardless, in terms of sensible weather this doesn’t matter, as either way it would result in more multi year Ninas as discussed by this study.

That goddamn primary robbed me of a blizzard. It deepening so much and plowing into Wisconsin was a killer for our snow chances closer to the coast.

Yep, never ever toss the NAM in these setups. That’s one of the things it’s very good it, sniffing out mid level warm layers.

Damn, that gives me 4 inches of sleet

The bigger issue at least for my area is the warm layer at around 700mb. That’s a big reason why the NAM 10:1 clown is giving me nearly a foot and accumulated snow depth is only giving me an inch or 2. Accumulated depth is the way to go outside of elevations and south of maybe southern VT/NH, since it’s more of a sleet setup than a snow setup. I’m thinking an inch or 2 here with mostly sleet for now, need that low to bump another 25 or so miles SE and strengthen (which is a long shot) to get more than that.

NAM improved a lot, low is more south. If we can get that low to deepen 5mb more and trend another 25 or south maybe the coastal plain and lower elevations can get in on the action. Either way, during the first half of the storm it looks like it’s going to be a mess here. Starts as rain, then changes to sleet and quite a bit of it, then maybe some snow at the end.

The subsurface is already down to around -.8C, early signs appear to be pointing to a strong event.

Gfs looks more north unfortunately

That would be an…… interesting commute in the Boston area.

And then the low plows into southern NH lol. Still south of last run, so I am not completely out of the game for big snows just yet.

Low trended south, it went from being over extreme nw Mass to central CT. Ultimately I am still east of the low, but I like what I’m seeing on this run.

Let’s get that heavy snow axis to shift 50 miles SE

This certainly isn’t good news for those looking for big snows. I wouldn’t discount it at all, the NAM is VERY good at picking up warm layers like that. Anecdotally it seems like when it’s NAM vs the cooler globals in these types of setups, the NAM is right more often than not.

It would be nice if we get the stronger lows like Fridays runs too.

The low is way too weak. It needs to deepen to the low 970s.

Canadian is still south

Gfs way north again

If only there was some kind of weather control device that could physically stop the low from moving north. The way things are trending the low will be over Greenland by Wednesday.

Low is probably going to plow into CNE.

My other concern besides the north trends (which are obviously bad) is that the storm is getting weaker. On the snowiest runs the low deepened to the low 970s or even high 960s, on these more recent runs it’s only deepening to the low 980s or high 970s. Given the setup and the fact that it’s going to be April, we need a truly extreme storm to get big snows right to the coast. Otherwise, it’s just meh. Oh well, there’s a reason why April blizzards are so rare in my area.

And of course it’s north…… can always count on things to trend away from snow.

I’m not giving up just yet, but we need the north trend to stop NOW. If it keeps going north by 0z, I’m out.

Yep we have seen bigger shifts even inside of 2 days.

The models had my area getting 6+ until it shifted NORTH! When we need a south shift, you can count on the low to shift hundreds of miles north. That’s the non winters of 2022-2024 for you, these last 2 “winters” can go fuck themselves! It isn’t even winter anymore and we still can’t avoid the seasonal trend.

What percentage would you guys say this has of developing into a historic blizzard for all of eastern mass, similar to April 1997, March 2013, March 2018 etc? I don’t think it is likely at all (I’m leaning towards rain here) but do believe that upside exists if everything breaks right due to the strength of the low on the models.