George001

The issue I’m having here is Im not seeing how they would have fixed the whole mean smoothing extreme anomalies thing (something that is inherently higher risk in an extreme tail ENSO event) since 2023. Maybe im wrong and am underestimating the upgrades, but im at a point where i need to see it to believe it. On the other hand, elevated risk does not equal guaranteed, there is a world where Bluewave is right from a probability standpoint but the winter ends up only being slightly AN like the European guidance mean has right now because that extremely warm month that often happens in super ninos just doesn’t happen this year. You are correct that we don’t have statistical proof of the current versions biases in ninos yet. Thats a valid point, so the best we can do at this point is make an educated guess. I still think it’s worth trying.

Imo this reads more as an experienced long range guy using pattern recognition to detect model biases than a warm bias. Euro has the classic super Nino warm north + big GOA low + cooler south + wet with raging STJ signal. It makes sense that the mean may be smoothing things too much in an extreme tail event like this, hence the warmer risks Bluewave is raising concerns about. If there is MC forcing as well we could see a very warm month (like December in 2015) that pulls the anomalies from slightly AN to extremely AN. I like the cold and snow as much as anyone, but Bluewave brings up a good point here and it’s worth taking seriously.

ONI of 1.0 is noteworthy this early. It’s on par with 15-16 and ahead of 97-98, 82-83 and 72-73. Even the RONI of 0.5 is impressive at this stage, most El Niños don’t develop until much later.

Depends on where you live. For my area weak El Niño is the sweet spot, and really weak ENSO is best (the top 2 ENSO states are weak El Niño and weak La Niña). ENSO has a pretty weak correlation though here. The only time I really lower expectations for winter due to ENSO here is if it’s a super Nino. I’ve been saying for a while I would rather roll the dice with a strong La Niña than a super Nino here. I would bet on the 27-28 winter producing more snow here than the 26-27 winter. All we really know for 27-28 is it won’t be a super Nino, since 26-27 will be and we don’t see multi year super ninos. I do think there is an elevated chance for a strong La Niña in 27-28 like @PhiEaglesfan712 is saying, but it’s not a guarantee.

Adam overweights ENSO. That works in super Nino years like this, 23-24, 15-16 etc, but outside of that it fails. It’s especially egregious to do that during weak ENSO like this past winter (weak La Niña). So yeah, Adam is probably going to be more right than not this year not because his process is good, but because his process happens to work during super ninos. That said, sometimes over analysis can be harmful. At a high level super ninos are warm and wet in the east, whether they are east based, basin wide, +PDO, -PDO etc. This is where I agree with him saying it won’t be a difficult forecast this winter. It’s ok though, we got a ton of snow this past winter and the past 2 winters have been cold, so im ok with the warm lovers getting their way this year.

It’s early but it’s fair to say as of right now things don’t look good given what is going on with the El Niño.

Thats certainly possible they would have been better for your area now. Thats a fair point about the increased moisture nowadays. Glad to hear you are enjoying your summer. There are lots of fun things to do in the summer like fishing, hiking etc.

I don’t even disagree with Adam about this upcoming winter in particular (the raging super El Niño forecast is backed up by current obs + guidance, it’s already approaching borderline strong territory in June). No issue with 97-98 as an analog either, but calling you a wishcaster for claiming 09-10 is an analog when that winter wasn’t even good for you is…. out there. I don’t see why having years like 09-10 and 57-58 as ENSO analogs is so crazy, it’s the weenie implication that those analogs = an eastern burial that is an unsupported leap. Those were strong El Niños (57-58 a high end strong event), wet, and neither were frigid years like 14-15 (Adam is right to push back on the people calling that season an analog). Hell, it could be argued 57-58 wouldn’t even be that good of a winter today if we ran back that same pattern and adjusted for CC. Sure, this El Niño is stronger and more east based than 09-10, but it’s not crazy to include it as an analog. Including it as an analog does NOT mean “the mid Atlantic is getting buried again”, that required an insane sequence of luck that likely won’t be repeated in any of our lifetimes much like 14-15 in Boston. 09-10 wasn’t that cold either, it was near normal temps. I don’t think that’s a wishcast analog. 09-10 without the severe -NAO (my understanding is we are in the opposite solar phase to that year) may not even be that good of a winter. I don’t know…. If you dig into these analogs more closely there are ways to debunk the weenie narratives without name calling. On the other hand, 97-98 is an excellent analog, that was an eastern based super Nino which is a strong match to how this event is developing. However, as several people pointed out that doesn’t necessarily mean snowless. A 97-98 type pattern with a bit less warmth (would need some of the non ENSO factors to break right for this) could absolutely lead to a normal snow winter. The seasonal models are likely too cold, but the coastal track and wet eastern winter pattern is in line with ENSO. The big question is how much of that precip will be snow vs rain. I’m personally on the warm and BN snow side of the argument, but for fucks sake it’s at least worth hearing people with differing opinions out. Adams ENSO posts have been solid, but ya know it’s uh possible to just ignore weenies if you don’t like them and enjoy the summer if you like warmer weather. A lot of people like it warm and aren’t huge fans of the cold and snow, and those people mostly are spending time outside and couldn’t care less about what people post online about the weather.

DC-NYC yeah but Boston is a bit different in that average snowfall is in the low 40s, so our area really needs either 1 big one + several smaller events or 2 big ones. In super ninos we don’t usually see those smaller ones, and the bigger ones tend to be more Miller A due to the strong southern jet which often run inland a bit and rain in Boston or go out to sea. Thats why these super ninos tend to be not great for us. Not only do we not get those minor events that add up in super ninos, the storm track when the big one does hit if it does often screws us. It’s basically the opposite of the southern mid Atlantic, they tend to get fucked over by Miller Bs and clean up in miller As, coastal SNE cleans up in miller Bs and often gets fucked over in miller As. This is a big reason why I’m not too thrilled about the upcoming super Nino for my area, but we will see how things play out. Metfan was saying in the other thread some of the long range seasonal guidance was showing a coastal track, I’d like to see that on guidance come November.

Yeah, definitely an early developing El Niño. Early developing events tend to peak stronger, and it looks like the consensus supports a super peak (which does not surprise me given what the subsurface looked like a couple of months ago). The question now is how will the super Nino affect the weather pattern? I’m thinking since it’s such an early developing event we will likely see the subtropical jet activate in the summer, and have a weaker Atlantic hurricane season than typical. For winter, it’s very early but these super ninos tend to follow a certain pattern (warm and wet in the east) so I would think that’s a good starting point. A bit off topic but I did notice a thing over the years where weenie sentiment tends to be too pessimistic during la Nina’s and too optimistic during El Niños. Has anyone else noticed this?

It’s looking more like an early developing east based event.

It’s unlikely it will be a modoki given the warmth already present in Nino 1.2 and the current subsurface structure (hence Andy Hazeltons comparison to 1997) + the historical precedence of super ninos to leak east. Nino 1.2 never really cooled off even during our past 2 la Nina’s. Its not impossible it becomes a modoki, but given where we are currently at east based should be the favored outcome, or at least a super Nino with an eastern tilt.

So I’m curious why you guys think this El Niño is expected to grow so powerful not too long after our last strong event in 2023-2024. The latest guidance has this hitting high end strong at a minimum, given how this event has been developing (already near +1C on the daily in Nino 3.4, subsurface is boiling etc) that seems conservative if anything. The return rate for super ninos is what, once every 8 or so years? My thoughts are this developing super nino is a response to the persistent and intense La Niña background state we have been in (delayed oscillation effect, I know Ray has mentioned this idea in his blogs several times over the years). I was thinking in March that the super Nino idea might not pan out because we just had a strong event in 23-24, but perhaps that “la nino” was a strong El Niño inside a persistent Nina background state, and this is the real regime changing El Niño (that will compare to previous more traditional super El Niños rather than a La Nino)? I have to say, we don’t see eye to eye often but I have to agree with Adam about how this event is developing. He struggled last winter, but he has been on point about this early developing El Niño. It’s more basinwide than east based right now, but I don’t think it really matters in terms of winter prospects. If he’s right about the strength, the warmth will be everywhere (as is standard in super ninos), and it likely will leak more east anyways like 97-98 because super ninos tend to do that historically. I know there has been some pushback on that analog, but no analogs are perfect. 97-98 is good enough at a high level. My top analogs right now are 97-98, 15-16, and 82-83.

Yep it’s coming. This is clearly an early developing El Niño with extreme subsurface heat, I am fully on board with the super Nino idea. Normally I lean against an extreme event until proven otherwise, but like you said them having to adjust the scales…. Have to wonder if the more aggressive normally warm biased guidance has the right idea this time (eg European).

Yeah that’s a reasonable starting point. Super nino is bad news for those of us living in northern areas.

Agree. The facts are fairly straightforward. An El Niño is developing, and it is developing similarly to previous strong and super ninos. If it does become a super Nino it won’t be the first one, and certainly won’t be the last. Personally I don’t think it’s a huge deal, I mean im not too happy about it because it’s an unfavorable ENSO state for cold and snow for my area, but it’s not like the El Niño itself is an actual threat to our lives or anything. 2015-2016 happened, life went on. Same thing will happen with this event.

Update: it’s mid April and the cold is nowhere to be found, my area is expected to be 80 the next 3 days. I’m planning to install my AC tonight. Just a month and a half ago I was buried under feet of snow, kind of nuts how quick the seasonal transition was this year. Very warm start to spring.

I do agree that northern areas aren’t necessarily doomed even if the Nino is on the stronger side, especially the great lakes (I know you guys do better in La Nina’s, but I do remember seeing somewhere that a super Nino is less of a death sentence for you guys than my area. I’d still prefer a weak or moderate event, but the early signs are this is developing more like recent strong or super ninos than the weak/moderate bucket. If it does become a super Nino I would go fairly aggressive on the mild and less snow side, but not necessarily if it is strong but not super and the non ENSO indicators look good (like you mentioned this is key, and is why this past winter was such a good one). Even last winter wasn’t an optimal ENSO configuration, and still was the best winter I had since 2014-2015. The east based nina idea like 17-18 and 21-22 didnt pan out, it shifted from more basin wide to a modoki Nina in the second half of winter. I recall looking in late Jan and being surprised at how much the coldest anomalies shifted west. We will see how things play out, id roll the dice with an 09-10 ENSO configuration with less blocking, so hopefully things break right in that regard.

It’s still too early to know for sure how strong the El Niño will be but the early signs do favor an event that gets fairly powerful. How strong is uncertain, but he’s right that if it does become a super event that would be very bad news for northern areas.

Yep. A super Nino is possible but we don’t know what is going to happen. A moderate or strong event is possible as well.

Agree. Still a wide range of possibilities given we are in early spring, but gun to head given the current subsurface im thinking it probably won’t be a weak event. Still, huge difference between say a moderate and a super Nino.

Hopefully we go the 02-03 route instead of a 15-16 redux.

I’m not expecting it to come back, but I hope I’m wrong and we get snow into April.

Looks like we may have one more brief window and then that’s it, but it would be more of an early spring storm than a return to winter. Seems like a long shot. Regardless, we had a great run, easily the best winter since 2014-2015. Easily an A winter in my book.

I hope we can avoid big warmth, im planning to buy a rest of season ski pass for Wachusett and would like to ski into mid April.