George001

Mostly ice

im tossing the gfs/gefs

March 13th 2018? This could be similar if everything goes right. Of course that’s a big if, but the potential is there.

That’s the fun of tracking in New England, we all root for different things depending on where we live. I want a Juno redux, you want a hugger track so I rain while you get buried, and Torch Tiger wants a 950mb low plowing into Montreal so we all get flooding rains.

Nothing wrong with that, I’d settle for 8-12 for you and 18-24 for me.

The one thing I am seeing is the northern energy is shifting west, even on bad runs where it misses the phase. I like seeing that

This storm means business…. we’re seeing around 1.5 in QPF for many areas on guidance. I’m excited, think we have a decent chance at a net gain.

Most of us like snow but it’s not a requirement, for example Torch Tiger roots for rain.

That said…. Im not losing my sleep and staying up for the 6z runs unless i see cross guidance agreement on a blizzard. This hobby is fun but im not fucking up my sleep schedule tracking something that most likely is a ghost.

That makes sense, I would agree that the setup looks similar to the Jan 11th disaster. For me it’s still worth tracking though, although the probability of actually phasing is low this is a high ceiling setup IF we get one. Hopefully we can get something to break our way in a non ideal setup.

A couple days ago you were feeling good about the 20th, what happened? Did the western ridge trend worse on guidance?

We aren’t actually going to go whiff cutter cutter whiff are we? If that happens I’m out on tracking the rest of winter. At that point, just gotta laugh at the absurdity of the situation and acknowledge it’s not our year.

the Icon was ran out of Kevs basement, verbatim thats a significant ice storm for most of SNE.

Big ice events are rare but minor ones not so much. Hell, this Thursday we are expected to get some ice. Possibly the weekend too, but that looks more like plain rain right now. I am more in the Euro camp for that one.

The bigger issue for me is where the Euro is. Gfs has been all over the place with this one while the Euro has been locked in on a more northern track for several cycles.

Euro cuts the 16th and nukes us on the 20th. Honestly, don’t like that. The 20th is just too far out, that’s going to change a billion times. The 16th is closer, I’d rather have that one trend well and the 20th look like shit.

Gfs looks good, general 2-4/3-6 type deal before going over to a mix then dry slot as the low tracks to our west. It’s the same general setup though as our last 2 systems, the question is will it be more like this one or the one last Thursday?

The thing that annoys me most is the storms are falling short of what’s expected. The NWS had me at 6-9 inches and I got around 4. I thought I had a good chance to get 7-8 last night for a bit, but unfortunately that didn’t pan out. Probably just the pattern, these storms are flying.

I disagree it’s a very active period, we have an ice storm coming on Thursday and possibly another one on Sunday. Well, I would say we are in agreement that this pattern favors CNE/NNE for big snows more than here, for me though I get excited about all kinds of wintry precip (not just snow). If you want more snow and less ice you aren’t wrong. This pattern favors northern areas, CNE/NNE are likely going to see 2+ feet over the next couple of weeks. I would expect ptype issues to keep totals down for us. Btw, for as much shit as I gave you about this most recent storm your original idea was 100% right. The QPF was simply not there for big totals, more of a general 2-4/3-6 for SNE than the 6-8 I expected. I was wrong, gotta own it. Northern areas did well though, some 8-9 inch totals in CNE.

I’m feeling good about my chances to end up with 6+

That area could get over a foot

Based on radar it looks like northern areas are going to do very well. The Popes forecast of a more southern max zone is in trouble

Yeah this is a great pattern for NNE, they are really going to get buried this month.

Question, would the 18z gfs solution for this storm be considered a cutter, miller b or something else? People are calling it a cutter on another board im on, but when I think of cutters I think of what the Euro has for the 20th. Low plowing into the lakes with no secondary redevelopment.

You were saying nobody is breaking 6 with this just yesterday