George001
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Everything posted by George001
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Even the mid Atlantic might be in trouble with this one. It doesn’t even look like a strong storm anymore, no phasing at all, weak and strung out.
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Yes they did, tossing the gfs/gefs was a mistake. Did way better with this than the Euro and Canadian. AI models did well too. I know I said yesterday we still have a shot but unfortunately things have only gotten worse on the models since then. This threat is cooked
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I don’t think those 2 foot runs are coming back, but a significant storm is still on the table. If we zoom out and look at where we are right now, most guidance is about 100 miles SE of where we want it at 4 days out. That’s….. not that bad. The issue is those earlier runs got everyone’s hopes up, and it can be tough to let that go. If the models were 200 miles offshore and bumped north over the past 24 hours, despite being in the same spot the mood would be a lot different.
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Agreed. It hasn’t been very snowy, but it has been cold and snow retention has been good. It actually feels like winter this year. I’d rather have 80% of normal snow, BN temps and consistent snow cover than 110% of normal snow, well AN temps and any snow that falls melts in a few days. Certainly no 14-15 or 10-11, but it’s not a rat in my eyes.
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You gotta be fucking kidding me
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It’s not terrible, but it does have a NW bias. The key takeaway for me is there is a lot of room for error in regards to storm track. I think I would do really well even with the low going over the canal. The key is getting the storm close enough.
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Wow, that is true arctic air. What I’m curious about is if a similar longwave pattern to the early Jan threat would work better now. Maybe shorter wavelengths will help?
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Gives me a foot of snow despite the low plowing into central mass. Definitely would take the under with that track
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Snow east of the low? LOL
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Mostly ice
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im tossing the gfs/gefs
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March 13th 2018? This could be similar if everything goes right. Of course that’s a big if, but the potential is there.
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That’s the fun of tracking in New England, we all root for different things depending on where we live. I want a Juno redux, you want a hugger track so I rain while you get buried, and Torch Tiger wants a 950mb low plowing into Montreal so we all get flooding rains.
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Nothing wrong with that, I’d settle for 8-12 for you and 18-24 for me.
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The one thing I am seeing is the northern energy is shifting west, even on bad runs where it misses the phase. I like seeing that
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This storm means business…. we’re seeing around 1.5 in QPF for many areas on guidance. I’m excited, think we have a decent chance at a net gain.
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Most of us like snow but it’s not a requirement, for example Torch Tiger roots for rain.
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That said…. Im not losing my sleep and staying up for the 6z runs unless i see cross guidance agreement on a blizzard. This hobby is fun but im not fucking up my sleep schedule tracking something that most likely is a ghost.
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That makes sense, I would agree that the setup looks similar to the Jan 11th disaster. For me it’s still worth tracking though, although the probability of actually phasing is low this is a high ceiling setup IF we get one. Hopefully we can get something to break our way in a non ideal setup.
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A couple days ago you were feeling good about the 20th, what happened? Did the western ridge trend worse on guidance?
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We aren’t actually going to go whiff cutter cutter whiff are we? If that happens I’m out on tracking the rest of winter. At that point, just gotta laugh at the absurdity of the situation and acknowledge it’s not our year.
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the Icon was ran out of Kevs basement, verbatim thats a significant ice storm for most of SNE.
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Big ice events are rare but minor ones not so much. Hell, this Thursday we are expected to get some ice. Possibly the weekend too, but that looks more like plain rain right now. I am more in the Euro camp for that one.
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The bigger issue for me is where the Euro is. Gfs has been all over the place with this one while the Euro has been locked in on a more northern track for several cycles.
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Euro cuts the 16th and nukes us on the 20th. Honestly, don’t like that. The 20th is just too far out, that’s going to change a billion times. The 16th is closer, I’d rather have that one trend well and the 20th look like shit.
