George001

I agree that we aren’t completely avoiding the taint late next week, a more northern track makes sense given the SE ridging but I am skeptical of a true cutter where we warm sector and get 60 degree flooding rains. It’s probably going to get icy.

You said it would be weak and strung out not too long ago, now you are worried it’s going by to amp up too much and rain? Nothing wrong with being more conservative, but pick one and stick to it.

Yes the 2/15 blizzard the models were OTS and then jogged way north 3-4 days out.

Threat 1: Sunday (day 3) Threat 2: Wednesday (day 6) Threat 3: Friday (day 8) Threat 4: Sunday (day 10) Under the gun for 4-8 inches on Sunday and tracking 3 more threats after that. Now that’s a nice pattern

Backloaded winter?

Looks like the warm layer won out with this one

Yeah nice hit, uniform 6-7 inches for most of SNE

I wouldn’t expect double digits with this setup but that’s too far in the other direction. 3-6/4-8 is a reasonable call at this range

I’m feeling pretty good about avoiding a ratter now for my area, but not sold that we get to average. All depends if those incredibly annoying last second rug pulls happen or not. While I do expect Feb to be snowier than Jan and end up being the snowiest month of the season (which is typical), I need to see actual snow in my backyard before going all in. After jumping the gun last storm and only getting 5 inches, I’m a bit hesitant to really go big (2ft + month) especially with the fast flow. I’m thinking the long range clown maps are somewhat overdone and we end up with a 15-20 inch month rather than a historic month.

Light snow isn’t really a big deal for commute, the bigger worry is the ice.

Yep, this is why I disagree with the idea that the best period will be later in the month or even early March. It could happen, but the ensembles are lit up for the next couple weeks and peak climo is the last week of Jan and the first 2 weeks of Feb.

Often these SSWs don’t pan out as advertised for the east. Everything has to go right, the cold air goes to this side of the globe, it doesn’t split right on top of us leading to suppression, etc. At least for my area I would not be surprised at all if the next 2 weeks are the snowiest period of the winter, and it has absolutely nothing to do with any SSW or blocking. I’m pretty sure the NAO is supposed to be positive most of this coming period.

There is a good chance the next 2 weeks are the snowiest period of the winter for better or worse

Yeah, that photo of the 934mb low cropped in was taken about a month or so ago I believe, wasn’t there one run that had a solution like that for the 1/11-1/12 threat?

Looks icy for the first threat

Same here, but it’s good to see something in the mid range. Worth keeping an eye on, but need the Euro to jump on board soon. Euro has been doing pretty good recently. It did good with the clipper, had it going north while the gfs had it going under us and giving us 5-6 inches of snow. Euro was also more north for the storm happening now, and it was right again. If the Euro is way north again, that would be very concerning.

The gfs shows how we score in these patterns. You aren’t getting big storms in this pattern, its multiple minor storms. But if you are on the right side of the gradient they can add up quick.

Yeah, looks like more fast flow garbage to me. I’m sick of the fast zonal flow, hard to get huge storms in that pattern. I wouldn’t say no to smaller storms, but it’s hard to get excited about a pattern that doesn’t have that monster blizzard upside.

We will have our chances but I have a few concerns with this pattern. 1. The orientation of the western ridge is SW to NE, not north-south. 2. The western ridge axis is too far west 3. The troughing over the central US is broad, and there are very high heights over the SE. This doesn’t look like an amplified pattern.

im glad to see the realistic posts about where we are at this winter and how things look, rather than the whole “oh just wait until Feb 10th” or even the whole “Wait until late Feb-early Mar, SSW will save us” bullshit. When you are kicking the can 10+ days during what is supposed to be PEAK SNOW CLIMO, thats a ratter.

Yeah this La Niña developed very differently than recent ones. Still feel the ENSO state for next winter is up in the air, I’m not really sold on an El Niño yet. Multi year cold ENSO periods immediately followed 6/9 of the last strong or super ninos, with 3 of those being the 15-16, 09-10 and 97-98 El Niños.

Also, good winters like 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 by this point in winter already had at least one major storm

It’s never a good sign when you are looking to the long range during peak snow climo. Some of the other boards im on I am seeing a lot of 300+ hour maps being posted, in my opinion that means winter is cooked. In a normal winter we would be consistently tracking 1-2 threats inside 7 days late Jan-the first half of Feb.

Ouch, that’s a big whiff.

Yeah can’t really argue with that, the NWS and none of the TV mets bought it. My weather app was saying 5-6 inches of snow for me starting from 3 days out and stayed in that range. Well, the gfs is doing it again giving my area 2 feet of snow a week out and this time I’m not buying it.