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George001

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Everything posted by George001

  1. George001
    Yeah the latest guidance has a weaker than average polar vortex into mid Jan.
  2. George001
    Euro is a nuke
  3. George001
    18z gfs looks great for you
  4. George001
    Where do you want the low to be?
  5. George001
    Why can’t you be happy for the north?
  6. George001
    Be patient, things will be different this year. That was in the past.
  7. George001
    I stand corrected, but I am glad to see it looks like they will keep doing well. I am going to be skiing a lot in December, so I have a good reason to be excited for the north. Plenty of time for my area to get snow later in the month.
  8. George001
    I hope the GFS has the right idea. Great run for the north, would be a great start for ski resorts.
  9. George001
    Way north. Low plows into SE mass.
  10. George001
    Oh well he’s probably right then. The ceiling isn’t that high here anyways, so I’ll root for the north even if it means I get nothing. I gotta root against Tblizz here, nothing against the guy but he’s been super negative and made comparisons to previous winters. Don’t get me wrong, being negative in this setup is completely logical. The high is leaving, which is a huge limitation. I just don’t agree with comparing to previous winters.
  11. George001
    You are 15 miles southeast of me, in my opinion that’s going to matter for this storm. I could be wrong, but im betting on me getting a minor snow event and you getting all rain.
  12. George001
    I am in a much better spot than you are for this storm. I don’t think I am getting a lot, but nothing is unlikely.
  13. George001
    It’s going to be a good event for ski areas. You will get nothing because you live in the ocean and it’s not winter yet.
  14. George001
    Great run for ski areas. Honestly, I’d be happy with it verbatim even though it’s more of a messy solution for my area.
  15. George001
    Agree with most of this, but think the second half of December could be interesting. The 2-3rd threat is real, but id favor NW of both of us for plowable snows at this stage. If we can thread the needle and squeeze out 4-8 inches that would be awesome, but those mild early Dec ocean temps are going to be working against us. Still worth keeping an eye on though.
  16. George001
    The modeled pattern now looks more like Dec 07 or Dec 08 than Dec 2010. Still great for northern areas, more dicey SE due to the lack of blocking. @40/70 Benchmark appears to have had the right idea based on recent changes to the long range guidance.
  17. George001
    It could get icy at times. That’s the bigger risk than suppression.
  18. George001
    It looks like 07-08. I will take my chances with this look ANY DAY over any strong or super Nino December.
  19. George001
    I’m not entirely sure, but I’ve heard that guidance struggles the most during seasonal transition periods and during la Nina’s. The struggles during La Niñas I would think is because they are northern energy dominant, and models struggle the most with energy originating from the north as it’s very sparsely populated up there. We are currently in a seasonal transition period and La Niña conditions are present, so I would expect these struggles to continue.
  20. George001
    You absolutely could for northern areas, December 2007 is a good example. Depends on where the boundary sets up.
  21. George001
    Yes because being rude is a great way to get your point across
  22. George001
    The 500mb pattern shown in Roundys post actually looks quite favorable for New England. -EPO/-NAO/-PNA with an SE ridge that does not link up with the block. It’s also worth noting that the -NAO here is more east based than south based like the past few years.
  23. George001
    Yeah looks like a solid gradient pattern is coming
  24. George001
    I was curious so I looked into it a bit. Following a multi year cold ENSO stretch when it did go warm ENSO, 9/12 times the follow up Nino was a moderate or stronger event. I would bet against a super Nino though, given we just had a +2 ONI peak El Niño 2 years ago. Gun to head, I would bet on our next El Niño being either next year or the year after, and being similar in strength to 02-03 or 09-10.
  25. George001
    I’m not sold on El Niño either. Historically year 2 after a strong/super mini goes cold ENSO, year 3 is roughly 50/50 and its year 4 that tilts warm ENSO.
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