George001
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Everything posted by George001
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Gfs is now on board
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Gfs suite is on its own
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With blocking that strong the 50/50 isn’t going anywhere. Unless the blocking weakens a lot I like our chances. The only model not on board now is the gfs.
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Holy shit…… even half of that would be a huge storm.
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Realistically what’s the ceiling for this?
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I hope it’s right
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This isn’t like the others, we are tracking a storm with blizzard potential in the mid range now. Even the late December threat which once looked promising was cutting into Wisconsin once it got to the 6-7 day range.
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Euro doubled down and we now have the Canadian on board. The best part is, this is without a doubt a Miller B. I’m all in
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The cold air thing is a valid point, but it is important to consider that if the storm is strong enough it can make its own cold.
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The Euro is the best model we have and it’s not clown range. Even a blend of the Euro and Gfs would be good, something like the Canadian for example. Yes it’s not as good as the Euro but it still gives us a plowable snow.
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Long duration too, holy shit that’s a burial.
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Euro has a Miller B
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He is 100% correct, the pattern looks very similar to early December with a strong block and trough out west. However, that doesn’t mean we are going to get the same results. Wavelengths are shorter in March and the ssts aren’t nearly as warm as they were in December. There is also the probability aspect of it, if you get that pattern in Dec 10 times do we go snowless 10 times, or did we get unlucky in a favorable pattern? No pattern has a 100% success rate.
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If it’s extreme cold yeah, it seems that now if the pattern is even the slightest bit unfavorable we get extreme warmth. It looks like the acceleration of climate change is a big reason why we are seeing so many extreme warm anomalies but very few extreme cold ones. Even out west has not been as cold as we were warm, and the trough has been parked over there the entire winter. I don’t understand how people can see this shit and then say “Welp there isn’t enough evidence that climate change is real and accelerating, it’s just cyclical”. Yes, weather is cyclical but this extreme warmth goes far beyond cyclical variation or natural change in the climate. This isn’t normal in any way whatsoever, I’m sorry but people who think this is just natural fluctuation or cyclical have their heads stuck up their asses, or are making big $$$ from oil companies. You bring up a good point about relying on old analogs and the issues that come with it due to our climate being warmer than it used to be.
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Yeah, we haven’t had a potent nino for a while now. Last time we had a nino exceed moderate strength was 2015-2016, 7 years ago. It likely won’t be quite that strong, but coming off a 3 year Nina I think there is a good chance it will exceed at least moderate strength. We won’t know for sure until May or June though.
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2C? Damn that’s super nino territory
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I’ve gotten burned in these swfes ripping and reading 10:1 snow maps. Those are especially horrible for these because they count all frozen precip as snow. That’s fine when you are getting all snow, but when you are getting sleet and or ice (which my area especially often does in these setups) 10:1 maps significantly overestimate snow totals. -
I saw in your blog that you mentioned concern about the mid levels tracking well inland, which isn’t a good setup for big snows in SNE. It looks like your first call is going to end up being the right idea. That goes to show that the models are good if used correctly, rather than just ripping and reading 10:1 snow maps. That’s why I was skeptical of those gfs 10:1 snow maps that gave even my area a foot. I saw the image on your blog of the mid level low going into Canada and lowered my expectations for snow accordingly (for this threat). The models are still waffling around some so I’m not really sure if for my area I should expect more sleet or ice.
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Kev, do you still think you are getting an ice storm? Or are you having second thoughts?
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High 30s and rain isn’t far from low 30s and heavy wet snow. I’d love for us to get that type of pattern, we have an outside chance of getting buried due to a bowling ball low, and even if that doesn’t pan out we get a shitload of rain. Tracking rainstorms is fun too, and there is nothing better than going fishing right after a big rainstorm. At least for me that is when I have my best luck with catching monster bass. Regardless, there isn’t anything we can do about it so there isn’t any point in getting upset about it.
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Ah damn it, I busted. Yes, I didn’t get 4-8 inches of snow and I’m not going to. There is a dusting outside right now, and it doesn’t look like we are getting much more. I was so sure this was coming north, but I guess the low was just too weak. Oh well, it happens to the best of us. On to the next threat!
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I think Kev has the right idea. We will get an ice storm. The north trends will mean more ice than sleet.
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Also isn’t East based blocking better for New England than west based? I thought west based was better for the mid Atlantic, and south based just shoves the cold SW while we roast and rain. North based has the highest ceiling, with some of the biggest New England blizzards occurring with north based blocking. Correct me if I’m wrong, but that’s how I thought it worked.
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I would think a trough out west with strong blocking would be good for us in New England, but it depends on where the blocking sets up. The blocking was south based in December and that is horrible, we want North based blocking.
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The models are struggling with the blocking. The trough out west isn’t going anywhere but I think they will correct to a broad conus trough rather than blocking and an se ridge. I don’t think it makes a whole lot of sense to have strong se ridging and blocking at the same time. I could be wrong, but I really don’t think we are getting a repeat of December. In March the wavelengths are shorter, so even if we do get the same pattern the results will likely end up being better. This winter has sucked but when we see blocking like this the potential is extremely high.
