George001

Great point. It’s easy and makes sense to lean towards a stubborn pattern persisting, but for all we know the strat stuff could shake up the pattern and we end up with a -5 Feb. it’s unlikely but at this point we have no idea what will happen that far out.

Speaking of big rainstorms, I wasn’t expecting much last night but that definitely overperformed at least where I live. The models didn’t really have anything too crazy but we were getting torrential downpours. That was an awesome storm.

I forgot to clarify, I track snow until mid April. After that, Im going to be tracking thunderstorms, heavy rain, hurricanes, tropical storms, and possibly even heat waves. That’s the great thing about getting excited about big rainstorms, the tracking doesn’t end once winter ends.

Yeah the SE ridge isn’t really showing any signs of going away, so it makes sense to assume it hangs around until proven otherwise. Hopefully we can get some blocking to make it a gradient pattern rather than full on torch.

I track until mid april

Yeah that’s a big improvement. There is a stronger high to the north that hangs on longer before moving out. I really feel that the gfs trended in the right direction for the 25th. It has a low in Buffalo, but that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s over for us. Although the low track isn’t ideal for SNE the improvements with the high gives us a bit more (still not much) wiggle room.

Canadian is more north than the other models, low in Rhode Island.

I’m starting to think the nam might be on to something. I thought it would have caved to the rainy guidance by now but it doubled down.

That’s fair, I would lean towards a warmer than normal month as well. Feels like we are locked in a pattern that favors warmth here, that western ridge off the coast has been stubborn all winter. Maybe that continues and we see a torch, but there is also a chance that it goes away and the weakened polar vortex leads to a frigid month. I’m leaning towards something in the middle, the pac remains unfavorable but blocking returns. Maybe a gradient pattern where it’s a sharp cut off between a burial and nothing. If im being honest with myself, that’s based on just knowing Nina climo, looking at mjo charts and looking at a bunch of lines on a chart showing what the pole vortex is expected to do. If I’m being honest with myself, for me there is absolutely 0 knowledge about the physical drivers behind these things, so I’m really just going off what computer models are saying.

Nina climo also is cold and snowy for Dec and Jan. Sort of worked out in Dec with the cold (snow was up and in though), Jan has been record warm so far. Maybe it torches anyways, but it’s also possible we had our thaw early and Feb and Mar we make up some ground. The point I’m making is we have 0 idea what’s going to happen in Feb, assuming a torch doesn’t make sense just like it doesn’t make sense to assume cold and snowy because of the strat stuff (that doesn’t always work in our favor).

Eh, those have been wrong all year. Past like 7-8 days out you may as well split the country into pieces and flip a coin for each section. Then you color in a ridge if it’s heads and a trough if it’s tails. The 10+ day range is a total crapshoot. What we do know is there is a nice storm going on right now, and the short and medium range have storms as well.

I’d gladly take this over 2015-2016 without a second thought

Euro got a lot snowier this run especially for the second threat. It does still change to rain eventually for a lot of us but there is much more front end now. If the other guidance starts trending towards an SWFE we might have to start talking about an area of sleet and ice south of the pike before the dry slot.

Too early to say what March will or won’t be this year. Hell, it’s too early to say what Feb will look like.

Yeah I don’t agree with the idea that March isn’t a winter month. March 2018 was a straight up burial and the snowpack hung around for a few weeks.

Yeah there are some positive signs with the polar vortex, even if it’s not an SSW just a weaker than normal polar vortex could be enough to help us avoid a rat. I don’t think it will be enough to get us to climo, but I’ll gladly take one big storm to get us out of complete rat territory.

I agree that it will snow again, even in 2018-2019 (which I think this winter is most similar to) where storms kept running inland, we did eventually get a big storm in March. I got about a a foot and a half from that one, enough to take the winter out of rat territory but still below average. That’s what I think this winter will do, we get a bit of a late comeback with a weaker polar vortex, maybe blocking comes back, etc. I think we will get one big snowstorm and that’s it, it will be enough to make this winter not a rat but not enough to reach climo. In between the snow events, we are going to get some rain too. We will get more rain next winter, and the winter after that. Hell, even in 2014-2015 we had a few big rainstorms with lows running inland the 1st half. Just like how snow is a part of New England climo in winter, rain is too. Inland runners and cutters are a part of our climo just like coastals are, there’s just no point in getting pissed every time we get one. They aren’t going anywhere whether I like it or not. Now that I got a taste of tracking a few cutters and inland runners, I’m not going back. Tracking the Christmas week cutter was a lot of fun, almost as much fun as tracking snowstorms (nothing will beat tracking slow moving Miller Bs though). I track rainstorms in the summer too, and my best fishing day was right after a tropical storm with flooding rains and extreme wind. If I hated rain that much that it would ruin my day every time rain is in the forecast, i would move to the desert. If you hate rain living right near the ocean isn’t the best idea.

What’s wrong with getting excited about rainstorms? I just bought a rain gauge, and am looking forward to putting it to use on Monday for the inland runner the models have. Im looking forward to finding out exactly how much rain we get. If you allow yourself to get excited about a wider variety of weather this hobby becomes a lot more enjoyable. We can’t control the weather so what’s the point in letting it ruin your day? For me, I would rather embrace the weather we get, not only root for a specific type of weather and get pissed when we don’t get it. I get a lot more enjoyment out of this hobby now that I’m doing that.

Not really, it’s still a really impressive storm even if it’s rain.

If watching the models just pisses you off and ruins your day, there’s no point in engaging in this hobby. I got pissed the past couple of years when snow threats would go ots, cut inland etc, but this winter it happened so much that I got fed up and decided that I’m going to have an open mind and try getting excited about rainstorms as well. I’m enjoying tracking the models the most I have since 2015 despite only having like 3 inches of snow halfway through the winter. That’s a success in my book, I can’t control the weather, but I can control my mindset towards it. This changed mindset is also helping me be a lot more objective about looking at the pattern rather than trying to constantly delude myself into thinking every storm will be a blizzard. I know a lot of you hate rain, but highly recommend having an open mind and just try tracking a rainstorm a few times without even considering the possibility it will change to a snowstorm. Try actually getting excited about it, and looking forward to the rain you get. Maybe even get a rain gauge and start measuring the rain, for me I’m planning on doing exactly that for this coming storm. It looks like I will be able to use my new rain gauge this Monday, and I’m really fucking excited about that.

Tracking rainstorms can be fun too, I like tracking big storms in general. Id rather have it be a blizzard for my area but I can’t control the weather, so there’s no point in getting pissed about it. It’s it’s going to be a big rainstorm, why not enjoy the process of tracking it? We post on this board because we are fascinated by the weather right? Well, if it just snowed all the time what would be the point in tracking? In New England we get all different types of weather, hurricanes, blizzards, heatwaves, arctic blasts, nor’easters, tropical storms, sunny days, cloudy days, etc. I wouldn’t have it any other way, and I find that I enjoy this hobby more when I have an open mind to tracking inland runners and cutters that I know will be rain for me.

982 mb, that’s one hell of a storm. I’m starting to get excited about Mondays storm threat.

I know you are a troll but that’s actually good advice. There are plenty of fun things you can do that don’t involve snow like golfing, fishing, etc. If it’s 60 in January or February, why not take advantage of the record breaking warmth and golf?

Or drive a few hundred miles north

I’m leaning that way as well, but we did see some good trends today so it’s worth keeping an eye on.