George001

I don’t think accusing someone of being bipolar and “off their meds” is a comparison. You are just being a dick for no reason because my posts annoy you, that’s it, and you used mental illness as an insult. What a bitch move pretending you were making a “comparison” rather than just being a dick because you don’t like my posts. Im with you on the anti PC thing though, so how about this? There is nothing I hate more than fake “tough guys” hiding behind a keyboard and talking shit. At the next GTG, you and me meet outside half an hour early and settle our differences with our fists. If you show up and win the fight, then maybe I’ll start listening to what you have to say. If not, I don’t ever want to see your miserable ass replying to my posts again. You don’t reply to my posts, and I won’t reply to yours.

It’s coming tomorrow. With every run the storm keeps trending more north.

It will come north, but the rgem has a warm bias with surface temps. Looks like a lot of ice and sleet for many areas in SNE.

Btw, that making fun of mental illness nonsense was unnecessary. People actually struggle with that shit you know, it’s not a joke. Seriously, go fuck yourself for that.

Get lost dipshit, I never said winter was over. I said this winter has been snowless and mild, which it has. So I got excited about rain, because guess what, you can’t control the weather so you may as well enjoy the weather you get.

I’ve been burnt quite a bit after making posts like this, but man the upcoming pattern looks exciting. Better than anything we have seen all winter. I could be conservative and say “tamed down 2018, etc”, but fuck that! Extreme weather can and does happen, and there are signs that it’s coming on the models. Im calling for eastern Mass to finish the season with above normal snowfall, that’s how much snow I think we will get in March based on the recent guidance. Yes, there is a western trough but with the strong blocking expected to develop the SE ridge will be suppressed south with a broad conus trough in place. I’d rather we get cold and snow spread out throughout the winter with a snowpack built up, but it is what it is. If this pattern delivers to it’s potential it’s going to be one hell of a month.

It’s been a while since I saw something that excited me on the models, but this upcoming period looks like it could be something special. This threat and the following 2 aren’t even SSW driven, but it looks like that is going to come down in March. Sometimes it doesn’t ever come down, but I really think it will this year based on what I’m seeing on the models for early March.

It’s coming north, take em up. 4-8 for all of eastern mass with isolated double digits in the jackpot areas.

That could easily end up being the snowier event of the next 2 coming up. For my area anyways it looks im too far south for the Thursday one to stay snow, and will be getting more sleet and ice based on what the models are saying. I’m not really buying those gfs 10:1 snow maps since they count sleet and ice as snow.

Yeah it’s nice out today

That’s why I started tracking and getting excited about rainstorms and torches as well, only tracking snowstorms was just getting me frustrated and it wasn’t fun anymore, so I made the decision to start getting excited about warmer weather and rainstorms too. That gave me a lot more enjoyment with this “winter”, despite it not really being much of a winter at all. Instead of getting upset about what we can’t control, why not make the best of the weather we get?

It’s coming north, in these events a few days out if you are on the southern edge of the snow axis, you likely aren’t getting much snow. For these SWFE events you want to be north enough to have a good 100 miles of wiggle room at this stage of tracking, not 10-20 miles.

We need the Pope on board

It will come north.

Vomit

Strong high to the north leading to frigid temps despite a low running inland. We’re getting a huge ice storm on Thursday, the SE ridge is really powerful and supports the idea of the low coming north.

Im sure there’s a weenie over in Tolland, CT that is happy to hear that.

The pattern does support a big ice storm

This winter is approaching 2011-2012 territory

The winter as a whole is likely beyond saving in SNE at this point but that doesn’t mean we can’t get a big storm in March. Hell, wasn’t 1996-1997 a ratter outside that big April blizzard? Even bad winters often have at least one big (12+) storm. Regardless, have to give credit where it’s due. Boston is at 8 inches of snow for the entire season and it’s mid Feb, and the seasonal average is in the mid 40s. The Pope was dead on with his winter forecast. I will certainly be keeping an eye on the geese next fall to clue me in on what to expect next winter. My winter forecast was a huge bust (again), but we live and learn.

Yeah It’s a straight up modoki Nina now, not what we want to see. What would be really nice is if we went into a multi year nino cycle, with 2-3 consecutive ninos of weak to moderate strength (maybe a moderate one next year and then 2 weak ones after). If that pans out it could lead to a good stretch of winters.

Agree, it’s so warm I don’t even need a jacket. Its 10am and we already broke 60 where I live, we might even have an outside shot at breaking 70 if the sun comes out later today.

The Pope is quite angry today, haven’t seen this much rage from him since the late December threat (back when it looked snowy). That is something to keep an eye on the next few days. I am still trying to figure out how the Popes anger correlates with our snow chances, but considering that he’s been fairly tame while we roasted the past month and a half I’m thinking it’s a good sign. My theory is as our snow chances increase, the Popes hostility also increases.

Yeah the reason why I haven’t been posting nearly as much since mid Jan or so here is I didn’t really see anything I liked on the models for big snow potential in SNE. The late Feb threat looks like it has some potential but I’m skeptical. I don’t think the longwave pattern supports a storm that is all that strong, the pattern looks zonal and progressive. If things break right it’s possible things work out but the way this winter has gone I’m at the point where I need to see it to believe it.

Too early to know what will happen in March. We need to figure out if all that cold from the SSW comes down, or if it stays up in the stratosphere. In March 2018, it came down but took a few weeks. You said this one isn’t expected to come down, but if it does come down there is a lag so that’s expected. There is no way to know whether or not it will come down this far out so the outlook for March should be taken with a grain of salt. If the cold air doesn’t come down, it will likely be well above normal temps like it’s been all winter. If it does come down, it will likely be much colder and snowier than the weeklies are saying. An ensemble doesn’t really tell the story for this one since the projected 500 mb pattern is a mean, where as the reality is likely to be one of the outlier solutions. Just to be clear, I’m not saying this means snow. It very well could be the warmest ensemble members that have the right idea which means game over. The point I’m making is that IF things break right, it’s not “too late” or any of that nonsense. If you want to argue that the probability things break right is very low, fair enough. But on this subforum we don’t give a flying fuck about average temps in Philly, that’s basically the tropics. In the mid March blizzard of 2018, Philly got RAIN while in New England it was a burial.