George001

If a more phased solution for this one is good for the later threat, im all for ramming this fucker into Buffalo.

It’s a great run but I’d pump the breaks on blizzard potential in SNE, for CNE and NNE absolutely. I’m still going to track it though, I would be happy to be proven wrong about this winter.

I’m leaning towards an inland runner but maybe the 1/23 storm (which looks like it will run inland) can drag the boundary south. It’s a long shot due to the unfavorable western ridge axis, but hey at least it has a low. Should be good for NNE, for us in SNE with this setup we need a few things to break right.

Kevs forecast might be right

I think it’s going to be a strong El Niño, not a moderate one next winter so my analogs are less favorable. Hopefully I’m as accurate as my forecasts this winter have been.

02-03 was really good, 86-87 and 02-03 were around average.

I agree, for my area I decided to close the shades until the winter of 2024-2025 (at least for big winter potential). Sometimes we see a dominant storm track lock in and when that happens, it’s tough to break. In 2015 that benefited us, this year, the storm track is west of us (reminds me of 2018-2019). The western ridge axis is just way too far west this year, it’s an up and in winter. Then next winter we have an El Niño coming off a 3 year Nina, which often end up strong. I don’t think my area will see even 30 inches of snow next winter, strong ninos favor NYC south and don’t have a very high SNE ceiling. This winter I’m expecting to finish around 30 inches (as bad as things have been, it’s not a 2011-2012 or 2019-2020 level bad pattern). The polar vortex is expected to weaken the end of Jan, so im thinking maybe mid Feb is when things flip to a more favorable look for us. Probably too late to even get to climo totals never mind surpassing them, but could be enough to prevent a ratter.

Too far out

Up and in winter

I hate seeing a trough out west on the models. When that happens lows run inland leading to rain for us.

Nowcast event?

How does round 2 look on the Euro?

I hope it trends so far west tblizz rains. Don’t want him mehing his way to another foot.

Idk about one band, it looks like more is coming in on Monday after the first band. There is a second low retrograding, gotta watch out for that. Isn’t that similar to what happened in March 2013?

Nam time

What are some good analogs for the high end outcome for this threat? I have no idea what I’m looking at.

Nam looks like it would back in more precip if you extrapolate it.

It could be a decent storm but I don’t think it really has blizzard potential. Pattern is too progressive for that. Could be a moderate event if things break right.

Euro doubled down, I did not expect that. It is not a typical setup, but what does give it some upside is the energy stalls off the coast and even retrogrades a bit. It almost looks like it is close to absorbing the energy to the west, re energizing the storm. It needs work, but worth keeping an eye on the possibility the storm keeps trending west, with snow backing in all the way to central and even western Mass.

You thinking similar to 2012-2013? That winter started slow like this one but ended up being a great winter.

Interesting, looks like the Nao is going from positive to neutral. I’d like to see that more negative but storm threats do happen more often when the teleconnections are transitioning.

I’m starting to get interested in the Sunday system again. Probably not anything big due to how progressive the pattern is, but maybe an outside shot at a few inches.

I buy it to an extent but I agree with the Pope that even if we get it, it’s not a good pattern for SNE. The ridge axis scares me, and the blocking looks weak, too weak to stop storms from running inland. Hopefully Ray is right about the big finish in March.

Im skeptical, it looks like an inland runner pattern with how far west the western ridge axis is. Cold, but with that ridge axis I would think we would be on the east side of the low, and would warm up and rain in time for the storm. Gotta get that to move east.

The theme of the next few weeks looks to be much of the same as it was in December even after the record warmth ends. On the long range models at first glance the long range looks favorable, with a -nao and western ridge. However, the western ridge axis is displaced several hundred miles west of ideal, which supports an inland running track like we saw in December. This isn’t a 2011-2012 winter, but I don’t think it’s going to be a snowy one in SNE. Like 2018-2019, it looks like the dominant storm track will remain to our west meaning we will be looking….. you guessed it, up and in!