George001

There is a line, but if someone crosses it and is being a dick you bet your ass I’ll be the first person to let them know it.

Eh, it’s all in good fun. Runawayiceberg and Hoarfrosthubb are chill and I’ve had good discussions with both of them. I had high expectations, probably too high and melted because I realize they won’t even come close to being met. If im calling for a massive blizzard and we end up getting a rainstorm, then they will give me a little shit for it. If they say it’s not gonna happen and we get a blizzard, I’ll give them a little shit for it. That’s how this board works, and I like it that way. I have no desire to have people walking on eggshells to try to avoid offending me or others.

Great point, the climate change induced record warm water temps clashing with cold enough air is leading to big lake effect snows in the Buffalo area. In the past 10 years or so it seems like early winter (Dec to mid Jan) is becoming more unfavorable. The ocean temps are warmer during this early part of winter, that has always been climo but when you warm those ocean temps even more due to climate change, that really fucks over coastal areas during this part of the winter. In the second half of winter, those temps cool off, the dominant storm track shifts south and you have canadian air masses clashing with the cooler but still well above normal ocean temps that leads to bigger storms in the second half of winter. Eventually the temps will become so warm that will become unfavorable as well, but for now it almost seems like climate change made December to mid Jan less favorable, and late Jan to mid March climo more favorable for big storms. The data indicates that we have had both more ratters and more big winters than in the past. I wish climate change wasn’t real, and it sucks that it’s happening but I have to say, it’s quite an interesting topic trying to figure out how climate change is currently impacting our winter patterns and how it will change our winters in the future. Long term it will lead to warmer and less snowy winters overall, but there are a lot of nuances ya know? I wish this weather board in general was more open to discussing the role of climate change on our weather rather than people trying to blame everything else and avoid the topic altogether.

People are in denial and looking for reasons to blame everything except the elephant in the room…. Global warming.

I am officially out on this winter. We are entering mid Jan with nothing so far, nothing big on the horizon and are tracking the next pattern change now that the 14th threat went to shit. Even if the SSW shit breaks right, that would get us to what average climo? There is a lag time so if we get an SSW late Jan it won’t be felt until late Feb. If we get an epic March and one decent storm end of Feb the upside is what, 40 inches the entire season? That’s a garbage winter!

Fuck this winter and fuck global warming. It’s always either record warmth or normal to slightly below. We can’t catch a damn break, if this winter rats and then next winter is a moderate or stronger El Niño then we will be waiting until 2025 for the next big winter potential. We need the SSW to save winter now. I had a lot of hope for this threat but it keeps trending in the wrong direction on the models.

ok if the Canadian and gfs are right then yeah rain makes sense. Can’t have a low running inland like that and snow, but there is still time for change.

Gfs is cutting the low to Chicago lol

Back to the storm threat, we need the 50/50 low to come back on the models. That did trend in the wrong direction yesterday.

The expansion of the Hadley Cell like Tip talked about is a threat to humanity as a whole. This year in particular the Hadley Cell seems to have expanded to levels never seen before. While there is only 150 years of recorded data, we can extrapolate farther back via fossil analysis and by studying ice cores. While you are correct that the climate is changing naturally, the data suggests that biggest driver (>90%) of climate change is caused by humans. Even if you think it’s not making any difference for us (I would argue it’s already made a big difference for us and will continue to do so) what about future generations? Im as big of a weenie as anyone, but this is much bigger than just how much snow we will have in our backyards decades later.

No, but that was a super nino.

Too early to say for sure. Slow start sure but it’s only early Jan.

For what it’s worth Bernie Rayno has the snow threat as far south as DC and takes it up to Maine. He insisted the Christmas week threat would run inland even when the models showed an east coast blizzard. He isn’t a hype machine, he’s wrong sometimes like anyone else but I’ve been watching him for years and he’s right more often than not. That said, he did mention that the signal isn’t super strong.

The low was weaker and it was during less favorable climo. I would think this setup would snow for us in Jan.

983 mb over the benchmark in mid Jan with a high to the north. I’m tossing the thermals verbatim on that run. Euro does run inland a bit though so i get why it rains on that, but the gfs is smoking some good shit. There’s just no way we get a low that strong over the benchmark with a high to the north and rain in mid Jan.

Climate change. That’s what it is, people don’t want to hear it but it is the truth. It takes more and more to go right to get snow, I’m noticing it even in SNE.

Well it feels like everything has to be perfect just to get slightly below normal. Then when the 500 mb looks slightly unfavorable we get record warmth.

How come it can rain well NW of the low in mid winter yet if the low goes even the slightest bit NW of us it’s always rain? It feels like everything has to be perfect to get snow now. Climate change is accelerating rapidly, when it gets cold it’s slightly below normal, and when it gets mild it’s record warmth. The 500mb doesn’t even look terrible.

That’s not what I was told when I said it can snow east of the low.

The Euro OP was a horrible run but the EPS still looks great. Low is offshore

Strong high to the north on both gfs and Canadian. Not gonna be warm with that in place.

I do think the Canadian is useful but yeah an OP run this far out is going to flop around a lot. I wouldn’t be surprised if the next run the low is in Wisconsin!

Canada should not be that warm if there is a high to the north and it’s mid January.

1030mb high to the north, low to the SE and it’s January, not buying those thermals verbatim.

Cutting to Buffalo