George001

It will come north.

How come

I don’t mind seeing that 228 hours out. It will come north.

There’s actually arctic air around for this setup. The core of it looks to be west of us, but aren’t the biggest snows often just NW of the gradient? It might not amount to anything if the gradient north of us, but we are at least in the game which we couldn’t really say for the disaster that was the record warm Jan pattern.

Eh we also gotta avoid strong or super nino. Don’t want a congrats DC winter.

I ended up with a little over 3 inches, not bad.

Im fully expecting a change to rain but hoping that it can be like 36 and rain instead of 45 and rain, the former won’t eat away at the snowpack as much. The Euro has a low in southern Vermont which isn’t ideal.

Got about 2 inches so far, probably finish between 3 and 4 which is more than I expected. Nice little event here for SNE, and it looks like up north really got hammered with 12-18 inches. Hopefully Wednesday stays cold enough that we get a net gain in SNE.

Honestly even some of the epic winters we’ve had like 2015 you can argue climate change played a big role in. While the world as a whole is warming, oceans are warming more rapidly. When you get an extremely favorable pattern like Feb 2015, the Atlantic furnace can help beef up storms leading to more snow. When the pattern is unfavorable like this year and there is no cold air to be found, that same furnace Atlantic is gonna hurt us in marginal setups. Climate change did not make this winter suck, it likely would have sucked decades ago with this same pattern. However, I do think some of those marginal events might have broken our way so this winter likely would not have been as bad. It’s a double edged sword, with more extreme winters snow total wise on both ends of the spectrum (long term this will likely be biased towards less average snow, which is already starting to happen in more marginal climates like DC). That’s just talking about snow totals though, when it comes to things like snowpack as the average temperature increases it gets harder to maintain a snowpack.

That’s really good to know. I often look at the CFS to try and get an idea of what to expect in the long range. I’m not going to be doing that anymore, any model that doesn’t account for climate change is completely useless.

That said, it looks like it did come north as expected.

Despite a decent low location it’s just not cold enough. We’re getting late March like elevation events in mid Jan, people don’t want to admit it but it is warmer than it used to be in the past.

I stand corrected, sorry for the false info.

Even my area normally does well with lows over the cape in mid winter. A couple of those big Jan blizzards in 2011 went over the cape, and I believe even the blizzard of 78 did. Hell, even in late winter it’s possible to get big snows without an optimal track. In March 2017 the low went west of my area and I still got about 10 inches of snow before changing over to sleet and then rain.

I don’t think it’s going to be a cutter, but in my opinion there will be a low right over my noggin, not offshore. If the low is offshore I’m not buying that it won’t be cold enough, not in late January. It isn’t even that warm right now, 28 in Boston.

The h5 energy is strung out some but it looks like it favors a track inland, not offshore due to how far NW the energy is.

That will come north.

It’s just as possible that we get a -5 Feb with an eastern trough as that output on the super long range guidance is. The pattern shown on those long range ensembles is quite extreme so it makes sense to be skeptical. The truth is likely in the middle.

Yeah I don’t think he’s really a dumb troll. I initially thought that, but then I read more of his posts and he actually knows his shit. It seems like he genuinely likes warmer weather, like Torch Tiger.

Yeah, to save this winter in SNE we need something to force all that cold in Siberia over here. It’s possible but based on past winters similar to this it’s a long shot. That damn western ridge is just too far west so everything wants to run inland.

Way too far out, gotta see it within 7 days to believe it. Anything past that is a total crapshoot, the models will change a million times from now until then.

Great point. It’s easy and makes sense to lean towards a stubborn pattern persisting, but for all we know the strat stuff could shake up the pattern and we end up with a -5 Feb. it’s unlikely but at this point we have no idea what will happen that far out.

Speaking of big rainstorms, I wasn’t expecting much last night but that definitely overperformed at least where I live. The models didn’t really have anything too crazy but we were getting torrential downpours. That was an awesome storm.

I forgot to clarify, I track snow until mid April. After that, Im going to be tracking thunderstorms, heavy rain, hurricanes, tropical storms, and possibly even heat waves. That’s the great thing about getting excited about big rainstorms, the tracking doesn’t end once winter ends.

Yeah the SE ridge isn’t really showing any signs of going away, so it makes sense to assume it hangs around until proven otherwise. Hopefully we can get some blocking to make it a gradient pattern rather than full on torch.