George001

Nice, hopefully it has the right idea. Big Euro run coming up

Agree, I’m not a fan of that setup. Airmass is bad and the low is too weak. 1/13 is the one to watch.

MJO is going into phase 8 and the models are showing a very strong low offshore. I did not mention anything about blizzard potential for the 6-7th, and 9-10th threats because the pattern doesn’t support it. The 13th period does have a lot of potential, maybe it won’t pan out but the pattern looks favorable during that window. We have been in a mild pattern but the pattern looks to turn favorable as we enter peak climo, so I have high hopes for the mid month period. If I bust like I did in December I’ll own up to it, but for now I’m sticking to my guns.

Yep, 1st threat looks more minor to moderate with the second threat having major nor’easter/blizzard potential. It isn’t just the Euro OP, eps, gefs, and geps have a signal as well.

Yeah I’m with the Pope on this one, it could be something but the pattern doesn’t support anything big. Thermals are marginal at best, so even if it does snow it would be a heavy wet low ratio snow. The low isn’t all that strong either, we need the pacific to improve for bigger threats.

Happy new year! To ring in 2023 the Pope has spoken, and it looks like he is saying no to the Jan 6-7th threat.

Sometimes the Pope pisses me off, but I don’t think we should ban him. Many of us, myself included, have our judgement clouded by 2 major sins against the Bible, greed and envy. When we are in the midst of our sinful ways, it means the devils influence is strong. When the devils influence is strong, it takes extreme measures to wake us up and get back on the right path. This often will mean being struck down by the angry hand of god. We need the Pope to keep us in check, when he gets angry we must ask ourselves “Why has the angry hand of god chosen to strike me today?”

That the bigger storm threat? It looks like the models have 2 threats now, one on the 7th and a bigger threat on the 9th (Miller B potential).

Glad to hear you are sticking to your guns on something big coming later in January. Its going to end up going down as a warm month because of how mild the first 10 days are expected to be, but that doesn’t mean we won’t have any snow chances. What’s interesting is your analogs actually are a little warmer than average for Jan despite a lot of them being snowy.

The Jan 7th threat on all guidance is an SWFE. It doesn’t look like anything special just a regular SWFE, which means 6-12 inches of snow, less south more north (12 only in elevations!) I’d like something bigger but I know I’m getting 6-8 inches of snow to sleet to drizzle and then slot on Jan 7th, nothing more nothing less. It is what it is.

Geps looks decent

There is a nor’easter threat in the Jan 7th-9th timeframe. The pattern is not good, but it can snow in bad patterns. I don’t expect anything big until the pacific improves but a moderate 6-12 event? Yeah very possible.

That’s true for Jan 2015, we had some blocking at the end of the month which helped with the blizzard. Wasn’t Feb 2015 a raging positive NAO though? I remember seeing a lot of blue over Greenland during Feb 2015, but that blue extended down into the eastern half of the US.

Fish storm

Yeah the NAO was raging positive during the 2014-2015 winter. There is a reason why we got 100+ inches of snow with 4 monster blizzards that winter, and it wasn’t the atlantic.

Shades remain open, the next 2 weeks are expected to be mild due to the circular polar vortex (only the first week torches) but it can still snow in bad patterns in New England. We track

Not every pattern that skunks SNE is the same. This December has been cold with the storm track to our west, so NNE got buried while we rained. This is different than Dec 2015 where everyone torched. Both patterns sucked for eastern mass but one buried NNE and the other skunked everyone. It will warm up yes, but in January in NNE it can and does snow in well above normal temps. Have you gone up to NNE this year to ski? I have, and it looks a lot different than it does in SNE. Cancelling a ski trip in NNE for mid jan because you don’t think there will be enough snow is a terrible idea. Climo matters here, if the models are showing something that deviates from climo you should question it (like if they show a blizzard in May for SNE). This is the same idea.

Cancelling a ski trip in mid Jan? They are having a much different winter up there than we are having in SNE. Those rainstorms here are burying them. I don’t care what the models say, it’s not going to be snowless in NNE. This is not a super nino.

The polar vortex is not only expected to strengthen but it’s also expected to become circular in shape. A strong polar vortex isn’t good but it’s not a death sentence for winter weather in the east. A strong and circular polar vortex is a death sentence, that explains why the models warm us up the first week of Jan. The severe polar vortex disruption that is expected to occur after that is very promising for the second week of Jan and later.

just like how a good pattern doesn’t guarantee snow, a bad pattern doesn’t guarantee no snow.

Gotta get the Navy on board first

This doesn’t say anything about how warm it will be, just that Jan will likely be above normal. There is a huge difference between say +2 and +8, we could easily still get a snowy January at +2-3, but +6 or more won’t work. Considering that the first week of Jan is expected to be a blowtorch the probability of the month finishing warmer than average being this high makes sense. It will be very difficult to wipe out a +15 first week.

Happy holidays, hopefully we get some better luck Jan-March. Jan will likely finish mild (+2 on the month at least) due to the blowtorch start, but those same blowtorch SSTs that are screwing us now might help us later on in the winter. In 2015 eastern mass got buried by 4 monster blizzards from late Jan to mid Feb, then the mid Atlantic got their turn mid Feb to mid March when the dominant storm track shifted south. Eastern mass was the bullseye that winter but even the Mid Atlantic areas got a decent winter. This isn’t 2019-2020 or 2011-2012 at all, interior areas like the Berkshires, Buffalo, northern Vermont ect are getting absolutely buried. The cold is there, we had some blocking and today’s storm was a goddamn beast, just ran inland so we warmed up and rained. Although my December and (likely) week or 2 of Jan will end up being a massive bust, even if the first half of Jan is an absolute blowtorch (the first week probably will be, 2nd week could go either way) we still got the 2nd half of Jan, all of Feb, and 3 weeks of March (climo rapidly deteriorates after). You know what this reminds me of so far? 2012-2013. Dominant storm track was inland early in the winter, mild SSTS, but there were some warning signs that things would change later on (early blocking historically reloads and repeats later in the winter). January was an absolute blowtorch that year, but then the blocking reloaded and we got absolutely buried Feb and Mar. Feb 8th 2013 was the most extreme blizzard I’ve ever seen, and my area wasn’t even the jackpot! A bit over 2 feet of heavy wet snow, that’s insane. Normally to get those totals you need extremely high ratios and frigid temps, but this one was cold enough and absolutely loaded with QPF. That snowpack went nowhere, and then we got another severe blizzard in March that was forecast to be 2-4 inches before turning to rain, but never did! We got 2 feet of snow in what was the last big storm of the season, turning a slow staring mild winter into an epic one. I am convinced that all that moisture in what has been a wet winter will result in at least 1 severe blizzard in SNE later on when the blocking does reload and climo becomes more favorable. Peak blizzard climo in eastern mass is the first 2 weeks of Feb, with the 2nd half of Jan and 1st half or Mar being really good as well.

Yeah it seems to be all or nothing now. It’s too bad because with some better luck we might have gotten a few SWFEs and clippers in this pattern. I love blizzards, but it would be nice to get more smaller events in between when the pattern isn’t favorable for a big one.

Too early. 2014-2015 was mild in December and the first half of January. Lets see what the rest of December and early Jan does first.