George001

Yep, I see a low in Wisconsin. That’s too bad I was hoping to see it get on board.

I have no idea if the shift is going to be good or bad, but yeah that was a massive shift on the gfs with the vort in Alaska. The low will likely move 500+ miles on this run.

Alright major changes on the icon are nice to see, but I’d like to see the Navy on board before I really get excited.

Eh sometimes they turn into Miller Bs

If that actually happens I don’t think we can call the pattern great anymore. How can we possibly get a -nao, -epo, +pna yet keep coming up empty? It makes no sense.

Is there room for this to become a swfe/Miller B hybrid type of storm if we see more confluence show up?

A 66% chance of a big solution a week out I’ll take those odds any day. If the models actually just trended to the 34% solution and then lock in on that a week out that would be some bullshit

I did see several posts saying the odds we get out of December with nothing on this board and others is very low just 2-3 days ago. That doesn’t necessarily mean that the next threat will hit, but that’s why I’m thinking we will get hammered at least once before the month ends.

This pattern sucks, if it’s going to rain here in fuck it I hope the low keeps trending west and cuts into Washington. We need something to reset the pattern because what we have right now isn’t working. If we get screwed once it can be written off as bad luck, but again and again? That’s a bad pattern.

Honestly, I was somewhat concerned when I saw Bernie Raynos video where he insisted that the pattern supported a cutter last evening (even before the awful 0z runs). He has his busts, but I’ve been watching his videos for years and the guy knows his shit. When he stuck to his guns and said it was going to cut despite the guidance showing a more favorable solution I saw that as a red flag. That said although it makes sense to lean toward an inland solution right now it’s still worth keeping an eye on. It’s very possible both Bernie and the models are wrong and the entire pattern is shifted 200 miles east. Hopefully the GFS is on to something here.

Yeah even a Canadian solution wouldn’t be horrible (for this threat obviously it is, a full blown cutter with 60 degrees and flooding rains). We sacrifice the first storm, but the trough is so far west that it hangs around longer to set us up for the next storm. Bernie Rayno in his videos talks about how there is often 2 threats with these, one when the trough comes in and one on the back end when the trough leaves.

The storm today failed because the airmass sucks, but the low location wasn’t bad. This upcoming storm is a lot stronger on the models, but could easily run inland. I’m concerned about that but it’s just not accurate to say it’s a carbon copy of the storm today even if it does fail.

I’m at 41 degrees right now with heavy rain

Yeah if we had that exact look say 48 hours out I’d be looking to the next threat, but getting that western ridge axis to move 200 miles east is very doable 180 hours out. I know for my area we are playing with fire in this setup especially with the latest trends, but we’re tracking a big storm with significant upside of things break right.

In all seriousness, I’m feeling pretty good about this upcoming pattern. Next weeks threat there is still a lot of uncertainty about the low location, but the guidance does have a very strong low with loads of QPF. The question is, how much of it will be snow? Even if the low takes a bad track, due to the airmass in place we might be able to get some snow on the front end before the change to rain as the low goes west of us (March 2017 could be a decent analog). A blizzard would be better, but at least we will have more chances afterwards even if this threat doesn’t work out.

I agree! The goddamn Atlantic Ocean being a furnace is a big reason why I’m raining right now despite a decent storm track. I also propose building a wall near the Atlantic Ocean to stop the east or southeast winds from getting in. If we do that, it opens up the possibility of snowing on the east side of a strong low when the airmass is cold enough.

The 50/50 could easily come back, I would think the blocking would keep it locked in rather than escaping east.

Alright we can work with that, I figured the EPS would be terrible considering how inland the Euro was. It looks like the risk is more inland runner than OTS, but the setup still looks better than the one for the rainstorm going on right now in eastern areas. Just gotta get that low east of us.

The euro looks like the 0z euro last night, sucks. Hopefully there aren’t too many inland runners on the EPS as well.

That’s a lot of energy, I’d even keep an eye on the piece way off to the right (on this run it’s too far east, but plenty of time for that to change). If as the trough goes negative it is able to pull that back into the main storm, we could see one big low instead of 2 or 3 lows.

Yeah Miller As are better for your area, I don’t like them because they are more prone to the low running inland, leading to rain in eastern areas.

I agree completely, especially after watching Bernie Raynos video. I hope he’s wrong but I’ve been watching him for years and the guy knows his shit. He’s been wrong before though, hopefully we get some east shifts over the next few runs on the ensembles.

A compromise between the gfs and Canadian would be nice

This is a Miller A now? Oof I’m with you on that, I hate Miller As. I hope the evolution changes and we get a Miller B instead.