George001

Yeah if we had that exact look say 48 hours out I’d be looking to the next threat, but getting that western ridge axis to move 200 miles east is very doable 180 hours out. I know for my area we are playing with fire in this setup especially with the latest trends, but we’re tracking a big storm with significant upside of things break right.

In all seriousness, I’m feeling pretty good about this upcoming pattern. Next weeks threat there is still a lot of uncertainty about the low location, but the guidance does have a very strong low with loads of QPF. The question is, how much of it will be snow? Even if the low takes a bad track, due to the airmass in place we might be able to get some snow on the front end before the change to rain as the low goes west of us (March 2017 could be a decent analog). A blizzard would be better, but at least we will have more chances afterwards even if this threat doesn’t work out.

I agree! The goddamn Atlantic Ocean being a furnace is a big reason why I’m raining right now despite a decent storm track. I also propose building a wall near the Atlantic Ocean to stop the east or southeast winds from getting in. If we do that, it opens up the possibility of snowing on the east side of a strong low when the airmass is cold enough.

The 50/50 could easily come back, I would think the blocking would keep it locked in rather than escaping east.

Alright we can work with that, I figured the EPS would be terrible considering how inland the Euro was. It looks like the risk is more inland runner than OTS, but the setup still looks better than the one for the rainstorm going on right now in eastern areas. Just gotta get that low east of us.

The euro looks like the 0z euro last night, sucks. Hopefully there aren’t too many inland runners on the EPS as well.

That’s a lot of energy, I’d even keep an eye on the piece way off to the right (on this run it’s too far east, but plenty of time for that to change). If as the trough goes negative it is able to pull that back into the main storm, we could see one big low instead of 2 or 3 lows.

Yeah Miller As are better for your area, I don’t like them because they are more prone to the low running inland, leading to rain in eastern areas.

I agree completely, especially after watching Bernie Raynos video. I hope he’s wrong but I’ve been watching him for years and the guy knows his shit. He’s been wrong before though, hopefully we get some east shifts over the next few runs on the ensembles.

A compromise between the gfs and Canadian would be nice

This is a Miller A now? Oof I’m with you on that, I hate Miller As. I hope the evolution changes and we get a Miller B instead.

Same here, 40 degrees with light rain for me.

Torch Tiger really wants the low to cut to Wisconsin with no secondary whatsoever, flooding all of New England with 60 degree temps and heavy rain. He likes warmer weather.

Is it correct to say with the setup in place for this threat that even if the low hugs and say goes over the outer cape, it would still be snow from say the south shore NW? A lot of EPS members have huggers so I’m curious about how that would look for eastern areas.

The strength of the signal this far out reminds me of the epic late Jan blizzard last year. All 3 major model ensemble suites are honking for a Miller B Christmas eve, nothing is a guarantee but that’s a great sign and is quite unusual this far out.

Great trends today. It’s insane that we have a 990mb MEAN on the EPS this far out. I even saw one or two 940s!

All good my man, I don’t take it personally. Hell, once I was corrected I realize how dumb it was to say it could snow well east of the low and was laughing my ass off with the others at how dumb it was. Life is a lot more enjoyable when you can poke fun at yourself and not take everything personally. But yeah I get why you and some others get frustrated with my posts, so I’ll going to try to tone it down some and make better posts.

Euro time coming up, last nights evolution but 200 miles east would be nice.

That’s fair. For me if it actually happens that way I’ll be pissed because it rained, but I know it’s going to change drastically since it’s so far out so it makes it easier to appreciate the evolution of the run for me. I get wanting to see the low farther east though, the Euro has been inland for a few runs now so it would be nice to see that change over the next couple of days. I would think even over the cape would be good.

Ya know, I actually enjoyed watching that crazy ass 0z euro run come just as much as I enjoy seeing blizzards on the models this far out. Even if it rained over my area it was a really cool evolution with wacky shit you never really see, like 7 different lows, snow well east of the low, ect. As many others corrected me about earlier, it won’t actually happen that way. We will see 2 lows at most, the primary and secondary low (Miller b) with a rain snow line NW of the low, not east. Still though, it was really cool to see that evolution even though it won’t happen.

I’m trying to think of ways to debunk that but I can’t. Goddamn it man, you just debunked all those posts I made about it snowing east of the low with one sentence. Hell, that even explains why my March 1993 example doesn’t apply, the ocean temps are much warmer than they are in March. I’ll admit it, I was wrong to not be concerned about the track of the storm. To be fair, in my defense the Euro did show snow east of the 960mb low in Central PA even if it wasn’t for my area.

This is batshit insane considering how far out the storm is

I’ll concede that it’s rare, but it can happen. Not only is there a frigid air mass preceding we also have strong North Atlantic blocking in place to lock it in. We have a frigid airmass, strong North Atlantic blocking, and a bombing low in the 960s. The Euro has it snowing well east of the low, and I read somewhere that the superstorm in March 1993 running inland. Yet Boston still got around a foot in that storm, despite being east of the low track. In my opinion if the EPS is right about the setup (big if to be fair), it will snow east of the low.

It cuts into Buffalo, but the airmass is so cold and the low is so strong it actually snows EAST of the low. That really is wild, and with a storm this powerful it’s very possible.

I love this look, most of those lows are in the 970s and 960s, with even one in the 940s! I don’t even care that most of them are huggers or run inland a bit, when the airmass is that cold and the low is that strong, I don’t see why it cant snow east of the low.