George001

Too early to say for sure. Slow start sure but it’s only early Jan.

For what it’s worth Bernie Rayno has the snow threat as far south as DC and takes it up to Maine. He insisted the Christmas week threat would run inland even when the models showed an east coast blizzard. He isn’t a hype machine, he’s wrong sometimes like anyone else but I’ve been watching him for years and he’s right more often than not. That said, he did mention that the signal isn’t super strong.

The low was weaker and it was during less favorable climo. I would think this setup would snow for us in Jan.

983 mb over the benchmark in mid Jan with a high to the north. I’m tossing the thermals verbatim on that run. Euro does run inland a bit though so i get why it rains on that, but the gfs is smoking some good shit. There’s just no way we get a low that strong over the benchmark with a high to the north and rain in mid Jan.

Climate change. That’s what it is, people don’t want to hear it but it is the truth. It takes more and more to go right to get snow, I’m noticing it even in SNE.

Well it feels like everything has to be perfect just to get slightly below normal. Then when the 500 mb looks slightly unfavorable we get record warmth.

How come it can rain well NW of the low in mid winter yet if the low goes even the slightest bit NW of us it’s always rain? It feels like everything has to be perfect to get snow now. Climate change is accelerating rapidly, when it gets cold it’s slightly below normal, and when it gets mild it’s record warmth. The 500mb doesn’t even look terrible.

That’s not what I was told when I said it can snow east of the low.

The Euro OP was a horrible run but the EPS still looks great. Low is offshore

Strong high to the north on both gfs and Canadian. Not gonna be warm with that in place.

I do think the Canadian is useful but yeah an OP run this far out is going to flop around a lot. I wouldn’t be surprised if the next run the low is in Wisconsin!

Canada should not be that warm if there is a high to the north and it’s mid January.

1030mb high to the north, low to the SE and it’s January, not buying those thermals verbatim.

Cutting to Buffalo

Looks like it’s going to be a bit too warm for my area for this threat, maybe an inch or 2 but not really expecting anything more.

It is currently stronger than normal but is expected to weaken a lot at the end of January on the latest weeklies run. For the 14th threat it looks like it will still be strong, but I’m not sure if it will be circular anymore or not. If it’s strong but elongated we can work with that.

i mentioned 2 days ago that I was of the opinion that this threat had the potential to develop into a severe Miller B nor’easter/blizzard, but it wasn’t a sure thing. This far out there are still a wide range of outcomes, with anything from a way OTS unphased system to a slow moving Miller B blizzard being possible. Right now if I had to make an estimate I’d say this threat has around a 35-40% chance at developing into a blizzard for all of SNE, which is quite high for this lead time but not enough to say we WILL get a blizzard for sure. As good as things look, I gotta pump the breaks a bit this far out.

In this pattern NE areas could benefit. Even if the low slides offshore initially, a late phase from the northern branch last minute could hook the low back in. This would screw the Mid Atlantic, but clobber eastern mass. That happened in the mid Feb 2015 blizzard.

The setup for the 14th is very interesting, on the models we have extremely mild SSTs in the Atlantic Ocean clashing with Canadian air filtering down from 1030s mb high to the north. The sharp thermal contrast supports explosive cyclogenesis as the low redevelops off the coast due to the confluence. We have extremely mild SSTs in the Atlantic Ocean, an atmosphere rich with water vapor due to severe volcanic activity, a strong high to the north, a strong piece of southern energy, northern energy diving in to phase (big wildcard right now, there is risk that this happens too late for us), and confluence to force secondary redevelopment. Therefore, I am of the opinion that if the northern energy does phase in, the low will deepen to the 960s easily, possibly even the 950s. Due to the lack of North Atlantic blocking this is a somewhat progressive pattern, so the solutions with the low SE of the benchmark make sense. However, with a storm this strong the precip shield would be so expansive that we could get into heavy snows even with a storm 100-200 miles SE of the benchmark. The late Jan blizzard last year, Jan 2015, and mid March 2018 all were SE of the benchmark, but we still got clobbered due to how expansive the precip shield was. The low does not need to go right over the benchmark for us to get big snows, anywhere from 200 miles SE to like 100 miles NW will do if the low deepens as much as I am expecting.

I don’t understand why people punted winter. It’s too early to give up.

Def too far South verbatim but EPS will be interesting. Gotta get more northern stream interaction like you mentioned a few posts ago.

You thinking this more of a Miller A or Miller B setup? It seems like the OP runs are more Miller A and the ensembles are more Miller B (this euro OP run I can’t really tell).

The December 2020 noreaster started as a cutter to Wisconsin, shifted to a mid Atlantic special in the mid range, then trended like 500 miles NW in the short range and hammered CNE and NNE with blizzard conditions. Even SNE got hit pretty hard with about 12-15 inches in eastern mass, more to the NW. The interesting thing about that storm was it cut pretty far NW, giving Chicago a blizzard. However, it redeveloped and turned into a Miller B, bringing blizzard conditions to New England as well. I don’t really agree with the whole “once a cutter always a cutter” thing, yeah it’s tougher to trend se from a cutter than it is to trend nw from an offshore coastal, but sometimes midwest cutters turn into Miller Bs.

We want a later phase than op gfs or Canadian right? Pattern looks somewhat progressive and the ensembles disagree with the OP so hoping for a later phase isn’t a bad spot to be in.

It’s January in New England, we don’t need frigid temps to snow. OP runs are useless this far out, the important thing is the ensembles have a signal.