George001

We don’t know what Feb will do yet. Due to how much ground we gotta make up its more likely than not that the season ends with below average snow, but it’s no guarantee and there is a big difference between slightly below average and a full blown rat.

Not frigid but 534 thicknesses is plenty cold enough for snow. Way better than the abomination this month has been, and it’s not 10 days away.

That’s exactly what we want to see, a stronger and slower wave gives more time for the confluence to depart allowing the storm to come north.

We don’t know what’s going to happen in 5 days, you can try to predict what will happen 10 days out but really none of us have any idea whatsoever. MJO drives the models? Well, how do we know those MJO plots are right? They are always changing as well. I’ve come to the conclusion that forecasting beyond as far as you can realistically extrapolate real time obs is almost completely random. I’m at the point where if a model shows a blizzard 10 days out, I don’t even care because it’s just going to disappear the next run. If it’s on the models 3 days out, now that’s a different story. I’m hearing a lot of talk about the “mid Feb warmup” and then “blocking returning in March” like they are givens. I don’t get it, how can we know either of those things will happen? For all we know, Feb could be a cold snowy -nao month and then we get an early spring with no snow at all in March. Maybe we get nothing either months, and maybe both months are cold and snowy, who knows.

It will come north.

How come

I don’t mind seeing that 228 hours out. It will come north.

There’s actually arctic air around for this setup. The core of it looks to be west of us, but aren’t the biggest snows often just NW of the gradient? It might not amount to anything if the gradient north of us, but we are at least in the game which we couldn’t really say for the disaster that was the record warm Jan pattern.

Eh we also gotta avoid strong or super nino. Don’t want a congrats DC winter.

I ended up with a little over 3 inches, not bad.

Im fully expecting a change to rain but hoping that it can be like 36 and rain instead of 45 and rain, the former won’t eat away at the snowpack as much. The Euro has a low in southern Vermont which isn’t ideal.

Got about 2 inches so far, probably finish between 3 and 4 which is more than I expected. Nice little event here for SNE, and it looks like up north really got hammered with 12-18 inches. Hopefully Wednesday stays cold enough that we get a net gain in SNE.

Honestly even some of the epic winters we’ve had like 2015 you can argue climate change played a big role in. While the world as a whole is warming, oceans are warming more rapidly. When you get an extremely favorable pattern like Feb 2015, the Atlantic furnace can help beef up storms leading to more snow. When the pattern is unfavorable like this year and there is no cold air to be found, that same furnace Atlantic is gonna hurt us in marginal setups. Climate change did not make this winter suck, it likely would have sucked decades ago with this same pattern. However, I do think some of those marginal events might have broken our way so this winter likely would not have been as bad. It’s a double edged sword, with more extreme winters snow total wise on both ends of the spectrum (long term this will likely be biased towards less average snow, which is already starting to happen in more marginal climates like DC). That’s just talking about snow totals though, when it comes to things like snowpack as the average temperature increases it gets harder to maintain a snowpack.

That’s really good to know. I often look at the CFS to try and get an idea of what to expect in the long range. I’m not going to be doing that anymore, any model that doesn’t account for climate change is completely useless.

That said, it looks like it did come north as expected.

Despite a decent low location it’s just not cold enough. We’re getting late March like elevation events in mid Jan, people don’t want to admit it but it is warmer than it used to be in the past.

I stand corrected, sorry for the false info.

Even my area normally does well with lows over the cape in mid winter. A couple of those big Jan blizzards in 2011 went over the cape, and I believe even the blizzard of 78 did. Hell, even in late winter it’s possible to get big snows without an optimal track. In March 2017 the low went west of my area and I still got about 10 inches of snow before changing over to sleet and then rain.

I don’t think it’s going to be a cutter, but in my opinion there will be a low right over my noggin, not offshore. If the low is offshore I’m not buying that it won’t be cold enough, not in late January. It isn’t even that warm right now, 28 in Boston.

The h5 energy is strung out some but it looks like it favors a track inland, not offshore due to how far NW the energy is.

That will come north.

It’s just as possible that we get a -5 Feb with an eastern trough as that output on the super long range guidance is. The pattern shown on those long range ensembles is quite extreme so it makes sense to be skeptical. The truth is likely in the middle.

Yeah I don’t think he’s really a dumb troll. I initially thought that, but then I read more of his posts and he actually knows his shit. It seems like he genuinely likes warmer weather, like Torch Tiger.

Yeah, to save this winter in SNE we need something to force all that cold in Siberia over here. It’s possible but based on past winters similar to this it’s a long shot. That damn western ridge is just too far west so everything wants to run inland.

Way too far out, gotta see it within 7 days to believe it. Anything past that is a total crapshoot, the models will change a million times from now until then.