George001

That said, it looks like it did come north as expected.

Despite a decent low location it’s just not cold enough. We’re getting late March like elevation events in mid Jan, people don’t want to admit it but it is warmer than it used to be in the past.

I stand corrected, sorry for the false info.

Even my area normally does well with lows over the cape in mid winter. A couple of those big Jan blizzards in 2011 went over the cape, and I believe even the blizzard of 78 did. Hell, even in late winter it’s possible to get big snows without an optimal track. In March 2017 the low went west of my area and I still got about 10 inches of snow before changing over to sleet and then rain.

I don’t think it’s going to be a cutter, but in my opinion there will be a low right over my noggin, not offshore. If the low is offshore I’m not buying that it won’t be cold enough, not in late January. It isn’t even that warm right now, 28 in Boston.

The h5 energy is strung out some but it looks like it favors a track inland, not offshore due to how far NW the energy is.

That will come north.

It’s just as possible that we get a -5 Feb with an eastern trough as that output on the super long range guidance is. The pattern shown on those long range ensembles is quite extreme so it makes sense to be skeptical. The truth is likely in the middle.

Yeah I don’t think he’s really a dumb troll. I initially thought that, but then I read more of his posts and he actually knows his shit. It seems like he genuinely likes warmer weather, like Torch Tiger.

Yeah, to save this winter in SNE we need something to force all that cold in Siberia over here. It’s possible but based on past winters similar to this it’s a long shot. That damn western ridge is just too far west so everything wants to run inland.

Way too far out, gotta see it within 7 days to believe it. Anything past that is a total crapshoot, the models will change a million times from now until then.

Great point. It’s easy and makes sense to lean towards a stubborn pattern persisting, but for all we know the strat stuff could shake up the pattern and we end up with a -5 Feb. it’s unlikely but at this point we have no idea what will happen that far out.

Speaking of big rainstorms, I wasn’t expecting much last night but that definitely overperformed at least where I live. The models didn’t really have anything too crazy but we were getting torrential downpours. That was an awesome storm.

I forgot to clarify, I track snow until mid April. After that, Im going to be tracking thunderstorms, heavy rain, hurricanes, tropical storms, and possibly even heat waves. That’s the great thing about getting excited about big rainstorms, the tracking doesn’t end once winter ends.

Yeah the SE ridge isn’t really showing any signs of going away, so it makes sense to assume it hangs around until proven otherwise. Hopefully we can get some blocking to make it a gradient pattern rather than full on torch.

I track until mid april

Yeah that’s a big improvement. There is a stronger high to the north that hangs on longer before moving out. I really feel that the gfs trended in the right direction for the 25th. It has a low in Buffalo, but that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s over for us. Although the low track isn’t ideal for SNE the improvements with the high gives us a bit more (still not much) wiggle room.

Canadian is more north than the other models, low in Rhode Island.

I’m starting to think the nam might be on to something. I thought it would have caved to the rainy guidance by now but it doubled down.

That’s fair, I would lean towards a warmer than normal month as well. Feels like we are locked in a pattern that favors warmth here, that western ridge off the coast has been stubborn all winter. Maybe that continues and we see a torch, but there is also a chance that it goes away and the weakened polar vortex leads to a frigid month. I’m leaning towards something in the middle, the pac remains unfavorable but blocking returns. Maybe a gradient pattern where it’s a sharp cut off between a burial and nothing. If im being honest with myself, that’s based on just knowing Nina climo, looking at mjo charts and looking at a bunch of lines on a chart showing what the pole vortex is expected to do. If I’m being honest with myself, for me there is absolutely 0 knowledge about the physical drivers behind these things, so I’m really just going off what computer models are saying.

Nina climo also is cold and snowy for Dec and Jan. Sort of worked out in Dec with the cold (snow was up and in though), Jan has been record warm so far. Maybe it torches anyways, but it’s also possible we had our thaw early and Feb and Mar we make up some ground. The point I’m making is we have 0 idea what’s going to happen in Feb, assuming a torch doesn’t make sense just like it doesn’t make sense to assume cold and snowy because of the strat stuff (that doesn’t always work in our favor).

Eh, those have been wrong all year. Past like 7-8 days out you may as well split the country into pieces and flip a coin for each section. Then you color in a ridge if it’s heads and a trough if it’s tails. The 10+ day range is a total crapshoot. What we do know is there is a nice storm going on right now, and the short and medium range have storms as well.

I’d gladly take this over 2015-2016 without a second thought

Euro got a lot snowier this run especially for the second threat. It does still change to rain eventually for a lot of us but there is much more front end now. If the other guidance starts trending towards an SWFE we might have to start talking about an area of sleet and ice south of the pike before the dry slot.

Too early to say what March will or won’t be this year. Hell, it’s too early to say what Feb will look like.