George001

Eh gfs is on its own and has gotten worse since the upgrade

Digging deeper into the upper levels for the 12z Euro run, I am convinced that this is a big dog. On the Euro, that northern energy phases into the already closed off upper low and re strengthens it once it gets to around Ohio, and the ULL continues to deepen as it moves west to east. The ULL gets down to 518 dm over the cape and islands. Based on the things I read here my impression is that lower dm = a more powerful storm. A rapidly strengthening ULL from 534 to a triple closed contour 518 dm ULL as it moves from Ohio to over cape cod? I don’t give a flying fuck what the ptype maps say, that run was WAY more impressive than what the surface shows. We have a potent rapidly strengthening closed off ULL about 50-100 miles north of where we want it. Even so, I would think that due to the strength of the storm after starting as rain, as the low undergoes rapid cyclogenesis it would dynamically cool the column leading to the rain snow line crashing SE. Also, 50-100 miles is nothing at this range, even as is I would think the surface output is underestimating the strength of the low and QPF output. Am I missing something here, or is the Euro hinting at a full blown Miller B nor’easter/blizzard potential? I know, I’m trying not to overuse that term but I would think it applies here, as the contrast between the strength of the low and high pressure to the north would lead to extremely windy conditions on top of the heavy snowfall. I’m not saying EVERYONE is going to get clobbered, but I would think someone does, whether it’s the just the interior or coastal areas join in on the fun remains to be seen.

Thats fair. The amount of cold air available will definitely be something those of us in eastern mass need to keep an eye on for this threat. There are some mixed signals with that, hopefully the -EPO and low strength win out over the warm waters and -PNA. At least for my area I agree with the people concerned about rain, that’s a much bigger concern than ots. Something like Feb 2 2021 could be a decent analog if the EPS and Canadian are right.

Idk March 2017 went right over my area or even west and we got about 8 inches before a changeover to sleet and then rain. The ocean temps are warmer now then they were in March 2017 though so you might be right. Depends on how strong the low gets.

If it’s over the cape that’s fine but a lot of them go into western mass. Hopefully the offshore and inland runner camps meet in the middle.

Looks like 2 camps one SWFE camp and 1 Miller B camp

Isn’t it more a Miller B than SWFE?

I’m not sure how relevant this is, but the La Niña increased in strength over the past week. It’s down to -1.1 now in the enso 3.4 region.

Lets get that 100 miles south. I still like what I saw from the Canadian, yeah it still needs some work but it’s a step in the right direction.

Yeah looks like the Sunday threat isn’t really going to pan out. On to the bigger storm threat Friday.

It’s very possible we could see a plains blizzard and a New England blizzard from the same storm, it doesn’t happen often but when we get blocking of this magnitude storms can take unusual tracks.

The “cutter” is turning into a Miller B

Euro time

Canadian has an ice storm

You bring up a valid point. I’ve noticed that storms get weaker a lot as we go into the mid range. Sometimes the models re strengthen in the short range and sometimes they dont, we will have to see what happens with it. Hopefully it only weakens a little rather than becoming a shredded mess.

I don’t think it’s done either, gfs has a progressive bias so it could be breaking down the -NAO too early. So the storm could easily slow down even more, increasing QPF. Big Euro run tonight.

I’m expecting a burial on Friday. Even if the low track sucks, it can snow east of the low. We got over a foot of snow from a storm with a primary into Chicago a couple of years ago. Now the primary for this one is in Wisconsin, and yeah that’s not great. Does it need work? Yeah, but the pattern supports not only more aggressive secondary redevelopment offshore, it also supports a strong low, and a slow mover. This drastically increases the ceiling for all of us, even the cape, Long Island, and NYC are in the game for this. We have the NAO and EPO negative, the PNA is also negative. We have 2/3 favorable teleconnections which is very good for us. I don’t even think we had a negative NAO for that storm, this time we do have one.

Upper level thermals aren’t bad, looks like the rain snow line would be near the mass pike. It’s the gfs though so it will probably shift 1000 miles next run.

gfs caving to the better guidance

I noticed that the mood here changes a lot, and the change lines up with what the OP gfs run looks like. I haven’t been on this board super long but have been a weenie for years, and what I learned is that the surface maps don’t matter all that much. It’s the large scale pattern that matters, I would rather see a bunch of whiffs and cutters with a favorable teleconnections than a bunch of blizzards with a raging positive NAO, positive EPO and negative PNA.

Kev might get his ice storm

Even if it starts as rain, If the more recent guidance has the right idea of the secondary redevelopment (Miller b) occurring off the Jersey shore, then the low has plenty of time to deepen to the 980s or even 970s before it gets to our latitude. The dynamical cooling in my opinion will lead to this being snow for even coastal areas. There was a lot of talk about a big dog with the upcoming pattern before it got delayed, could this be it?

Hell yeah it’s turning into a Miller B! I noticed on the models there is 2 or even 3 lows so I figured it must be a Miller B. An swfe has only one low right?

The 12th went the wrong way tonight, disappointing. Still close though, and the Canadian turned the 15th “cutter” into a Miller B.

I still think it’s going to turn into a Miller B. Probably favors CNE and NNE though.