George001

You bring up a valid point. I’ve noticed that storms get weaker a lot as we go into the mid range. Sometimes the models re strengthen in the short range and sometimes they dont, we will have to see what happens with it. Hopefully it only weakens a little rather than becoming a shredded mess.

I don’t think it’s done either, gfs has a progressive bias so it could be breaking down the -NAO too early. So the storm could easily slow down even more, increasing QPF. Big Euro run tonight.

I’m expecting a burial on Friday. Even if the low track sucks, it can snow east of the low. We got over a foot of snow from a storm with a primary into Chicago a couple of years ago. Now the primary for this one is in Wisconsin, and yeah that’s not great. Does it need work? Yeah, but the pattern supports not only more aggressive secondary redevelopment offshore, it also supports a strong low, and a slow mover. This drastically increases the ceiling for all of us, even the cape, Long Island, and NYC are in the game for this. We have the NAO and EPO negative, the PNA is also negative. We have 2/3 favorable teleconnections which is very good for us. I don’t even think we had a negative NAO for that storm, this time we do have one.

Upper level thermals aren’t bad, looks like the rain snow line would be near the mass pike. It’s the gfs though so it will probably shift 1000 miles next run.

gfs caving to the better guidance

I noticed that the mood here changes a lot, and the change lines up with what the OP gfs run looks like. I haven’t been on this board super long but have been a weenie for years, and what I learned is that the surface maps don’t matter all that much. It’s the large scale pattern that matters, I would rather see a bunch of whiffs and cutters with a favorable teleconnections than a bunch of blizzards with a raging positive NAO, positive EPO and negative PNA.

Kev might get his ice storm

Even if it starts as rain, If the more recent guidance has the right idea of the secondary redevelopment (Miller b) occurring off the Jersey shore, then the low has plenty of time to deepen to the 980s or even 970s before it gets to our latitude. The dynamical cooling in my opinion will lead to this being snow for even coastal areas. There was a lot of talk about a big dog with the upcoming pattern before it got delayed, could this be it?

Hell yeah it’s turning into a Miller B! I noticed on the models there is 2 or even 3 lows so I figured it must be a Miller B. An swfe has only one low right?

The 12th went the wrong way tonight, disappointing. Still close though, and the Canadian turned the 15th “cutter” into a Miller B.

I still think it’s going to turn into a Miller B. Probably favors CNE and NNE though.

I’d like to see that northern piece dive in earlier like the 12z yesterday

Nao reload as well?

Even if we get skunked by this pattern the first 2 threats, the geps improved with the pacific in the long range so we should get more chances.

I noticed looking the the H5 the lobe over Maine is farther SW on the runs that are more aggressive with the 1st storm threat. Not only that, but the runs that really blow up the 1st storm threat are better with the 2nd threat. A lot of times you see patterns where it’s one or the other, this pattern looks like we get both storms or nothing. Still needs work, but it’s encouraging to see the 0z guidance trending towards the Canadian while the Canadian itself sticks to its guns.

It did shift south some this run but still has a monster slow moving Miller B, it gives you over a foot now. It has been consistent and the EPS made a nod towards it earlier. OP Euro did too at H5, it looks like everything is trending towards the Canadian.

It’s more likely than the “upgraded” gfs being right. The EPS has a signal for that storm as well. Is there by any chance a way to access the old versions of the GFS? The GFS was half decent a few years ago but has been getting worse with every upgrade.

Yeah there is still plenty of time for that to change. The useful guidance trended in the wrong direction for that today, but like you said in earlier posts the guidance has not been handling the pacific well at all.

Yeah things have changed. I was wrong, I don’t know why it’s so warm on the models with the negative NAO and La Niña but it is. If all of them are showing it, it can’t really be ignored. That said it can still snow in a bad pattern. There is still very much a path to an epic December, get 1 storm to break right while the pattern is still unfavorable over the next 2-3 weeks, and then a big one when the epic pattern settles in. Honestly this development although frustrating right now actually increases the ceiling, as the duration of the epic pattern will take place closer to the heart of winter.

I’m not gonna ignore the Canadian. It is close enough to the event and has been much more consistent in showing something (not as extreme as today’s run obviously). In my opinion it is on to something, now I’m not expecting 15 inches of snow for my area and 2 feet+ inland, but a toned down version of that is very realistic.

I’ve noticed the entire evolution has slowed down. The 10th became the 12th and the 13th became the 15th. That’s a pretty big change. The 15th looks bad right now, but it’s still far enough away that there is time for it to change. The Canadian shows that the first threat shouldn’t be overlooked either, it has a slow moving Miller B for the 12th. The H5 pattern argues against a cutter, due to the strong -NAO. Just yesterday the models had a Miller B for the 2nd threat so I wouldn’t give up on that.

In Dec 2010 the pattern got delayed too. Delayed but not denied.

Euro is trying for a Miller B. If the primary low was in even Chicago instead on Wisconsin that would be a lot better for us. Still plenty of time to correct that. There was a storm in mid December a few years ago that gave Chicago a blizzard, but then it redeveloped offshore and turned into a Miller B. The secondary low underwent rapid cyclogenesis, and NYC north got buried. Both Chicago and Boston got over a foot of snow from that storm, and some areas in CNE/NNE got over 3 feet of snow.

The gfs got worse since the upgrade, it’s been shifting thousands of miles every run. The Euro has struggled with the pattern as well but not to that extent. Since when did blocks hook up with SE ridges? Aren’t they supposed to suppress the storm track south? If I end up being wrong and the blocking hooks up with the SE ridge, and then the low rams into the block I’ll admit it. But right now I am going to ignore the GFS and stick to looking at what the other models do. In my opinion every model is cutting the low too far inland, and I think it will turn into a Miller B as we get closer to the storm. There was a storm a couple years ago the models had cutting to Wisconsin, and then it turned into a Miller B in the mid range. That said, I do have concerns about the airmass. It is not all that cold.

Yeah I just looked at the 500 mb apparently the blocking weakens and expands south over the US. That’s strange, the other models don’t have it though. If that did happen I would think the storm would be suppressed if anything due to how far south the block is.