George001

You thinking this more of a Miller A or Miller B setup? It seems like the OP runs are more Miller A and the ensembles are more Miller B (this euro OP run I can’t really tell).

The December 2020 noreaster started as a cutter to Wisconsin, shifted to a mid Atlantic special in the mid range, then trended like 500 miles NW in the short range and hammered CNE and NNE with blizzard conditions. Even SNE got hit pretty hard with about 12-15 inches in eastern mass, more to the NW. The interesting thing about that storm was it cut pretty far NW, giving Chicago a blizzard. However, it redeveloped and turned into a Miller B, bringing blizzard conditions to New England as well. I don’t really agree with the whole “once a cutter always a cutter” thing, yeah it’s tougher to trend se from a cutter than it is to trend nw from an offshore coastal, but sometimes midwest cutters turn into Miller Bs.

We want a later phase than op gfs or Canadian right? Pattern looks somewhat progressive and the ensembles disagree with the OP so hoping for a later phase isn’t a bad spot to be in.

It’s January in New England, we don’t need frigid temps to snow. OP runs are useless this far out, the important thing is the ensembles have a signal.

Eps is really good, slow moving Miller B.

Western ridge axis is good but the confluence is too far south. Verbatim yeah I agree it’s out to sea, but that’s where we want it on the gefs this far out. Gfs and gefs has a progressive/zonal bias

I disagree that the warmth returns. The MJO is going into phases 8-1-2, and the long range models don’t seem to be catching on. In my opinion the long range will trend significantly colder due to this.

You think the 1/14 threat is more promising than the 12th? It looks like the airmass is a bit better so I’m almost hoping the 12th stays weak and the 14th blows up instead. The Pope brought up a good point about the ridging potentially taking us in eastern SNE out of the game.

Nice, hopefully it has the right idea. Big Euro run coming up

Agree, I’m not a fan of that setup. Airmass is bad and the low is too weak. 1/13 is the one to watch.

MJO is going into phase 8 and the models are showing a very strong low offshore. I did not mention anything about blizzard potential for the 6-7th, and 9-10th threats because the pattern doesn’t support it. The 13th period does have a lot of potential, maybe it won’t pan out but the pattern looks favorable during that window. We have been in a mild pattern but the pattern looks to turn favorable as we enter peak climo, so I have high hopes for the mid month period. If I bust like I did in December I’ll own up to it, but for now I’m sticking to my guns.

Yep, 1st threat looks more minor to moderate with the second threat having major nor’easter/blizzard potential. It isn’t just the Euro OP, eps, gefs, and geps have a signal as well.

Yeah I’m with the Pope on this one, it could be something but the pattern doesn’t support anything big. Thermals are marginal at best, so even if it does snow it would be a heavy wet low ratio snow. The low isn’t all that strong either, we need the pacific to improve for bigger threats.

Happy new year! To ring in 2023 the Pope has spoken, and it looks like he is saying no to the Jan 6-7th threat.

Sometimes the Pope pisses me off, but I don’t think we should ban him. Many of us, myself included, have our judgement clouded by 2 major sins against the Bible, greed and envy. When we are in the midst of our sinful ways, it means the devils influence is strong. When the devils influence is strong, it takes extreme measures to wake us up and get back on the right path. This often will mean being struck down by the angry hand of god. We need the Pope to keep us in check, when he gets angry we must ask ourselves “Why has the angry hand of god chosen to strike me today?”

That the bigger storm threat? It looks like the models have 2 threats now, one on the 7th and a bigger threat on the 9th (Miller B potential).

Glad to hear you are sticking to your guns on something big coming later in January. Its going to end up going down as a warm month because of how mild the first 10 days are expected to be, but that doesn’t mean we won’t have any snow chances. What’s interesting is your analogs actually are a little warmer than average for Jan despite a lot of them being snowy.

The Jan 7th threat on all guidance is an SWFE. It doesn’t look like anything special just a regular SWFE, which means 6-12 inches of snow, less south more north (12 only in elevations!) I’d like something bigger but I know I’m getting 6-8 inches of snow to sleet to drizzle and then slot on Jan 7th, nothing more nothing less. It is what it is.

Geps looks decent

There is a nor’easter threat in the Jan 7th-9th timeframe. The pattern is not good, but it can snow in bad patterns. I don’t expect anything big until the pacific improves but a moderate 6-12 event? Yeah very possible.

That’s true for Jan 2015, we had some blocking at the end of the month which helped with the blizzard. Wasn’t Feb 2015 a raging positive NAO though? I remember seeing a lot of blue over Greenland during Feb 2015, but that blue extended down into the eastern half of the US.

Fish storm

Yeah the NAO was raging positive during the 2014-2015 winter. There is a reason why we got 100+ inches of snow with 4 monster blizzards that winter, and it wasn’t the atlantic.

Shades remain open, the next 2 weeks are expected to be mild due to the circular polar vortex (only the first week torches) but it can still snow in bad patterns in New England. We track

Not every pattern that skunks SNE is the same. This December has been cold with the storm track to our west, so NNE got buried while we rained. This is different than Dec 2015 where everyone torched. Both patterns sucked for eastern mass but one buried NNE and the other skunked everyone. It will warm up yes, but in January in NNE it can and does snow in well above normal temps. Have you gone up to NNE this year to ski? I have, and it looks a lot different than it does in SNE. Cancelling a ski trip in NNE for mid jan because you don’t think there will be enough snow is a terrible idea. Climo matters here, if the models are showing something that deviates from climo you should question it (like if they show a blizzard in May for SNE). This is the same idea.