George001

The SE ridge is good it prevents suppression.

the change in the polar vortex forecast bodes well for Jan-March as well.

Ah that’s too bad, but the increased water vapor could still lead to an increase in low strength. The question will be if that will be enough to offset the warming or not.

Holy shit that’s a lot of material! The material from the volcano isn’t going to disappear and do nothing. There are already signs that all that material is being absorbed into the stratosphere. Yes, we don’t live in the stratosphere but what goes up must come down. I don’t think the brunt of the material has came down yet, but once it does I think it will be absorbed into low pressure systems, and will help them strengthen to historic levels. I’m not a met so I don’t really know when all the material is coming down, but I know it has to come down eventually. It’s possible this December is just the beginning, and come February and March is when we get the brunt of the effects of the material from the Tonga eruption coming down from the stratosphere. If that’s indeed the case, this could end up becoming a record breaking winter. Not only that, but it could also mean the next few winters are also severe.

The blocking needs more time to establish itself. December 6th is TOO EARLY! It might even *gasp* RAIN! Does that mean it’s time to call off the epic pattern and 20+ inch December for all of SNE? HELL NO! Look at what happened in the analogs for this coming pattern that people talked about (Dec 2010, Jan 2011, Mar 2018, Feb 2013, Mar 2013, ect). The snow blitz didn’t start as soon as the blocking set up, it took some time for the pattern to develop. We’re gonna have to wait most likely. Anyone who’s panicking because the OP runs aren’t showing multiple blizzards should keep in mind, that’s because well, they aren’t supposed to start coming until later in December. That’s 3 weeks from now minimum, if we make it to January without anything then it’s time to panic.

I’m not sure, but if so I would think it would be a Nina much weaker than this one. I’m curious as well, I think some of the mets here have that data though.

For anything big based on what the models are saying I agree it’s mid Dec at the earliest, more likely we wait until week 3 of December if not the last week. In March 2018, the blocking established itself in early March, but didn’t get clobbered by a massive blizzard until mid month (there was a big interior storm a week before, but the areas closer to the coast kinda got screwed). I’m expecting a similar progression, the first storm likely won’t be a snowy one, then we get a big interior storm where the coast gets screwed a bit, then mid to late month we get a monster blizzard for all of SNE.

With La Niña especially stronger ones we need a -NAO otherwise everything will cut. La Niña and a raging positive NAO is a disaster, that’s how you end up with 2011-2012. The flip side of that though is when you do get a really strong -NAO, you would rather have a powerful Nina to offset the suppression risk. In my opinion the strength of the La Niña actually helped us in 2010-2011, it made it so instead of the mid Atlantic getting clobbered New England got clobbered. 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 were both strong -nao winters, but 2009-2010 was a strong Nino and 2010-2011 was a strong Nina. My area got more than double the snowfall totals in 2010-2011 than 2009-2010.

I like how the pattern advertised on the models isn’t a suppression look like Feb 2010 and Jan 2016, it’s more like Dec 2010 or Mar 2018. If the blocking does get as strong as the models are saying that dreaded La Nina will help make sure we get clobbered instead of DC/Philly.

Snowman19 a month ago: “La Nina will definitely make its presence felt” Snowman19 now that the models are showing a -NAO La Niña pattern nearly identical to Dec 2010: “If there is no SE ridge suppression is a worry, forget everything I said about La Niña making its presence felt a month ago. Maybe La Niña won’t make its presence felt at all, it could easily morph into an El Niño by mid December to thwart the Nina induced SE ridging!” Snowman19 make up your mind! Will the powerful La Nina be a major pattern driver or not? If it will like you said a month ago and we do get a strong -nao, the upcoming pattern will be EXTREMELY favorable for us weenies. For me, I agree with what you said a month ago, and believe the strength of the La Niña will play a big role in our winter pattern. La Niña should NOT be ignored.

Yeah….. I don’t think we have to worry about lack of a SE ridge.

With blocking that severe the ceiling for this December is very high, as in 20+ inches of snow for the month in most of SNE. That is a lot, but it only takes one storm to reach those amounts with this severe North Atlantic blocking pattern. Instead of getting 12 hour storms with a positive NAO in this pattern due to the blocked flow the low isn’t going anywhere, so we would get 24 hour storms instead, possibly longer. With the warm ssts offshore I’m thinking a March 2018 redux, where the NW areas get clobbered with the first storm or 2. Then mid to late month when the cold air is more established (there are signs of a polar vortex displacement event on the models, despite no SSW), the clash between the northern airmass and the mild early season Atlantic Ocean SSTs leads to any area of low pressure forced to redevelop offshore due to the blocking to undergo rapid cyclogenesis as it comes up the coast, deepening into the 960s. On top of this, we have the increased water vapor in the atmosphere due to the volcanic activity last year, this increase in water vapor will lead to truly obscene QPF totals.

I would be worried if we were in a moderate to strong El Niño. This pattern looks more 2010-2011 than 2009-2010.

I disagree it’s a La Niña pattern with blocking. The SE ridge that shows up in la Ninas is good for us because it prevents suppression. Even Metfan could get a lot of snow from this pattern if the models are right. The blocking will force Miller B redevelopment, which is great for our area. In fact, Miller Bs are better than Miller As in New England.

For point number 2 while that’s true the blocking will increase our chances especially by late December. All it takes is one storm anyways with this blocking.

EPS too

The eps pattern is almost perfect for us. We have the blocking to prevent cutters and force secondary redevelopment (Miller B). We have some SE ridging as well to prevent suppression so we won’t have to worry about a repeat of 2009-2010 or 2015-2016.

The polar vortex is a lot weaker than last year

The models rush pattern changes a lot. Delayed but not denied. During transition periods the models are completely lost just like Zach Wilson is when he drops back to pass.

Eh all the models were terrible with it. They were too early with bringing the blocking in which is why the threat isn’t going to pan out. We need more blocking.

Care to explain where I’m wrong?

No shit Philly and DC arent getting anything, it is late November with powerful La Niña in place. However, lows bombing out and and making their own cold air is a real thing. Is it likely to be enough for SNE? No, it’s a long shot because welp it isn’t winter and everything has to go right for it for us to get big snows. I’m not saying 100% of the QPF will be snow (it won’t), but a rain to heavy snow scenario right into the Boston and NYC metro areas is still in the cards. I’ve seen it happen, it happens all the time in March nor’easters.

It’s unlikely it snows in my area but I wouldn’t rule it out. 2 feet, no but I guess there’s an outside shot at a slushy foot. Hell even Metfan is still tracking the storm.

Good low location though. Verbatim it isn’t good, but If the low bombs out more it can create its own cold air.