George001

If la ninas are more favorable early in the season, since this Nina is expected to peak early and rapidly weaken in the back half of winter, could that mean we get the big Nina first half but avoid the unfavorable Nina Feb-March? Last years Nina strengthened deep into the winter where as this Nina is expected to be weak in the early half of winter and potentially non existent the second half (enso neutral).

Oof if the polar vortex is record strength like last year that is a really bad sign for winter. I remember you saying the nina going east based saved us from a 2011-2012 type outcome with all the cold locked up over the North Pole. I see why you were hoping for an El Niño now, if the NAO is positive it’s less of a death sentence in a nino. Hell, wasn’t the nao raging positive during the 2014-2015 snow blitz? Hopefully the pacific cooperates and we can at least get a decent winter even if it isn’t anything crazy even with an unfavorable polar vortex.

It’s very unlikely based off the current guidance but how would it impact the winter outlook if the Nina grew to record strength, but became strongly east based? Is strong/east based a better outcome than weak/west based?

Do you think the sun is going to go ballistic again or cooperate more this year? If the sun stays quiet this winter the polar vortex should be a lot weaker. It deepened to record strength last year so even if it doesn’t shatter into a billion pieces I would think there is a good chance the polar vortex will be more favorable.

To get a big winter in SNE we need more Miller Bs and less Miller As (as Ray likes to call it, Miller Asshole).

I see. The models are projecting La Niña to be weak so even you guys farther south have a decent chance. A couple years ago people used the solar min to argue winter would be big, we didn’t get a big winter (maybe some local areas did well, but a widespread big winter like 95-96, 10-11 ect was nowhere to be found). Maybe there is a lag and the run of big winters with -nao that were supposed to come with the solar min are coming up now.

If Nina becomes more east based the winter could be great. I know things don’t look good right now but it’s too early to write a big winter off, still a lot of time for things to change. Doesnt NYC and the northern mid Atlantic do well in ninas? I like the look of things for my area but if I’m remembering correctly even NYC does well in weak and moderate ninas.

Too early to tell

It doesn’t look great right now but I’m not ready to write off a big winter just yet. I wasn’t on the board back then but going into the 2010-2011 winter I can’t imagine people were very optimistic. That year the La Niña was really strong and central based, and the MEI was extremely high which indicates la nina was coupled and dominating the pattern. Hopefully the polar vortex is weak this winter. This is a different pattern of course, but at least it’s not a moderate to strong nino.

What are some possible wildcards to look for if looking for a big winter in eastern mass this year?

If the La Niña keeps deepening (I thought it would be strong last year and it was barely moderate, so not going to jump the gun too early), could 2010-2011 become a decent analog? The MEI is on roids like 2010-2011 and the subsurface is rapidly cooling, so a decrease in surface temps is possible down the line. The 2010-2011 La Niña was extremely strong and dominated the winter pattern.

I’m not a fan of the increasing solar and low ACE. That usually means a polar vortex centered over the North Pole which is really bad. It looks horrible right now but it’s still early, there is time for the ACE to increase.

The record high for Boston tomorrow is 98, decent chance that gets broken.

I agree with the idea that in the winter of 2022-2023, El Niño will be nowhere to be found, much like Tatum was nowhere to be found in the finals. For most moderate strength or stronger El Niño years arent you already in El Niño by now? The March April May average is -1.1 which is moderate La Niña (it does appear to be weakening some this month, but still in weak La Niña territory). The latest CPC/IRI projection has the chances we see El Niño during the winter as less than 10%. Not only is it saying El Niño is very unlikely, it is saying if anything there’s a pretty good chance we are looking at another La Niña! That’s kind of cool, you would think there’s a good chance at getting an El Niño since we just had 2 consecutive moderate la ninas, but it looks like that will not be the case. Another thing that suggests that we could see another La Niña is the MEI index, the MEI index for April and May was recorded as -1.7, which is even lower than it was during winter. If anything, although guidance seems to be keying in on a weak La Niña, there is still a lot of spread. There are quite a few models taking the La Niña to moderate strength with a couple even suggesting we could see a strong La Niña, and only a couple of members even have a weak El Niño. I don’t know if it means anything, but could the extremely low MEI index suggest that the models are underestimating how strong this La Niña could get in the winter? Even if the Nina according to ONI index has weakened some lately, it could easily restrengthen and potentially increase in strength throughout the fall and winter, as we are still a ways away from peak nina climo.

My winter forecast ended up being a fail. There were some warning signs but I don’t know how the polar vortex was able to deepen so much. It was record strength, which screwed us late winter. This winter was decent in my area because of the blizzard, but pretty much everywhere outside SE Mass it was bad. I know the solar was more active than expected, but I would think to get the polar vortex to deepen so much it would take something extreme to do that. Maybe the volcanic activity earlier in the year? I read that the year after a big volcanic eruption there is evidence suggesting increased probability of a positive NAO. I hope the polar vortex shatters into a billion pieces next year.

The low on the Canadian a few days ago went poof, just like that. Very unfortunate.

Weed

Yes, we need to see the signal strengthen on the ensembles though. It is a long shot for sure.

That’s a very strong low

There’s a low on the eps. Cold too

Too early to tell. If we do though, if the polar vortex doesn’t end up stronger than normal the winter should be better. The past couple of la ninas have done a good job cooling off the ocean, leading to a weaker pacific jet. La Niña with blocking is very good.

Wouldnt the blocking force secondary redevelopment, leading to a Miller B? That happened during the big December storm a couple years ago that buried Binghamton NY. The low initially cut west and buried Wisconsin, but it redeveloped to the south and turned into a Miller B. Or at least an SWFE, I don’t get how all that warm air can flood north.

How can it cut into the block? I’m not buying that, maybe it won’t be a snowstorm, but the low won’t just ram into the block.

12z euro extrapolated looked like it would have been an interesting solution for early April. I’m not sure how much if any of the precip would be snow, but it did look like a bowling ball was going to track under us.

I have toned it down a bit. I still jump the gun sometimes but this I am willing to accept feedback. This post is a bit harsh, but completely fair and nothing you said here is really inaccurate so I’ll work on it. I probably shouldn’t have started talking about blizzards off just a good H5 look (I’ll edit the post so it’s toned down) but man it’s a really good look. I don’t entirely remember all the details of our last exchange, but I do remember taking offense to something you said and got defensive as a result. I don’t really want to make enemies here so I’ll forget about that and clean up my posts. Fair enough?