George001

Im extremely bullish on this coming winter for our region, I’m not buying the mild Jan and Feb at all. The late increase in tropical activity this fall is leading to us avoiding a low ACE season. The early Siberian snowcover data, La Niña peaking in the fall instead of later in the winter like last year, ect makes me think we have a good chance at getting buried. It will likely have its mild periods as all winters do, but the rapid weakening of the Nina I think could lead to a monster Feb and or March. Nina climo is favorable during Dec and Jan, and unfavorable during Feb and Mar so the early peak of the Nina could mean that we are getting the typical Nina Dec and Jan, but not the mild Feb and Mar. It’s weather so there’s never any guarantees, but I like our chances right now. I’ll take this look over a moderate or strong nino any day.

Active northern stream with lots of Miller Bs instead of southern stream driven Miller Asshole? Sign me up!

I don’t think getting the enso state wrong 6 months out from winter means you are a terrible forecaster. Maybe it looked like it would be warm neutral at the time, but things change.

Wow. There are a few lows deepening to the 950s and 960s. People wrote off this hurricane season as a low ACE season too soon. 150 ACE can’t be ruled out based on what the models are saying.

The ACE index is increasing a lot after a slow start. Average is around 120, and we are currently on pace for around 110 but the models are showing a more active pattern coming up. Due to this it may not be a low ACE year after all.

The interesting thing about Ninas vs Ninos is Boston is better off with a super Nina than a moderate Nino, but is also better off with a weak Nino than any Nina (in general based on the data). In practice it’s more complicated than this, it would be interesting to see how the data looks if you break it down by structure, when said enso event peaks, the impact the enso state of the previous winter has, ect.

For what it’s worth the MEI is already starting to rise. Ray mentioned in his blog that this is something to watch out for. It peaked at -2.2 and the latest update had it rising to -1.8, this could be a sign that the dynamical guidance has the right idea of weakening the Nina earlier vs the statistical guidance having a moderate Nina into late winter.

yeah I’m just rooting for a weak PV and good pacific, no need for an SSW or anything crazy to get a good winter here. If anything SSWs can hurt sometimes if the polar vortex goes to the wrong side of the globe.

Yeah being unwilling to use other people’s ideas is not a good mentality to have. This is true for just about everything, when I first started playing chess I tried making up my own openings and didn’t want to castle because everyone else did it and I wanted to be original. I sucked, and got my ass kicked over and over again until I started reading books and applying the ideas from them to my own games. Even the best chess player in the world, Magnus Carlsen has a team of coaches to help him with opening prep. There are a lot of great minds on this site, if you are making a forecast without trying to incorporate research from others you would be doing yourself a disservice.

Holy shit that Nina looks stronger than 2010-2011. Yeah the other guidance disagrees with that and there are already signs that the Nina is starting to peak with the subsurface warming up. It’s weird that it has a ridge in the west and east though, I would think there would be a trough out west if there is a ridge in the east.

I’m all in. Big Greenland block, weak La Niña and a ridge out west. If this develops December and January could end up both being great months.

Yeah that seems right, would still be a lot of snow with the same setup in winter but nowhere near 9 feet. Unfortunately, science won’t let my dream become reality haha. What you are describing is why late winter/early spring storms when we get them can be really big. It can be tough to do due to climo, but if we get a well timed cold blast, that combined with a lot more moisture to work with due to the warmer ocean temps can lead to some very big storms (March 1993, April fools blizzard).

Yeah it looks like the recent rise in subsurface temps is hinting at the dynamical guidance camp (faster decay of the nina) having the right idea rather than the statistical guidance that Keeps the La Niña at low end moderate well into winter. If that is the case, the MEI number will start increasing soon. It will be interesting to see what the September guidance looks like.

Imagine if this storm hit on a day when the temperature was 40-50 degrees cooler…. Some areas in Rhode Island had 9 inches today…. of RAIN.

There was an event in 2013 where the European model insisted on there being potential for a massive blizzard a week out. I pulled multiple all nighters tracking that due to how much snow the euro was projecting, I had never seen anything like it (was fairly new to tracking and we came off a really mild winter). The gfs disagreed, but the Euro didn’t back down. The euro had multiple runs in a row bringing a monster blizzard with feet of snow to the area. Eventually the other models realized that that slow moving Miller B low wasn’t going out to sea, but it was going to undergo rapid cyclogenesis and come up the coast. The Euro nailed what ended up becoming the historic Feb 2013 blizzard (Nemo) a week out.

Yeah it was bad for most areas. My area did decent (mostly due to the monster blizzard in late Jan, 20 inches here) but areas to the north and west didnt which is unusual for la ninas. It looked like a great pattern was coming in on the models, but then winter just kinda died after that. A lot depends on what the polar vortex does, last year it deepened to record strength so even just an average polar vortex would be an improvement.

The crazy thing is the snowiest month in history in eastern mass was a raging +NAO, yet we still got buried with the pacific cooperating well (weak west based El Niño in action). I’m hoping the dynamical guidance is onto something about the rapid decay of the Nina if we get a positive NAO again. I know you mentioned how the active sun and quiet tropics this year favors a positive NAO this winter. If the NAO is positive a weaker Nina or even enso neutral instead of moderate would be better for us. It seems like with ninas (especially stronger ones) we are more reliant on NAO help than ninos. We haven’t had a big December in a while so I’m hoping some of those analogs you mentioned pan out (average ish winter with a big December). We haven’t had a big December in a while, so it would be cool to have a big December nor’easter this year. Looks like while we aren’t looking at anything near 2014-2015, we aren’t looking at a 2011-2012 type winter either. Maybe something similar to last year but a bit more in December, less in Jan?

Damn that bass is massive, how many inches was it?

I like the ridge out west, the NAO looks positive but only weakly positive. That might even be a good thing with the Euro killing off the nina. I don’t get why there is also a ridge in the east, which is concerning and would be really bad for us. The NAO is positive yeah but doesn’t look like a raging strong polar vortex pattern. To my untrained eye that almost looks like a strong El Niño pattern with a raging pacific jet, yet El Niño is nowhere to be found.

What are you thinking this Nina peaks at? Maybe low end moderate, similar strength to last year then weakens by late fall? Or do you think the models could be missing something and the Nina becomes strong? The disconnect between model forecasts and subsurface data, MEI ect is interesting.

Oh no not Miller Asshole…… Id rather take my chances with a Nina even moderate strength (more Miller Bs). A 2009-2010 pattern with better luck could be decent for us, not like a 2015-2016 pattern with a super nino furnace winter. Id rather take my chances on a higher ceiling pattern in SNE like 2014-2015, 2010-2011 ect though. Oof at that storm where NYC got buried 2 feet while it rained here, that’s some tough luck. Other parts of the board would probably be happy with that 2009-2010 type of pattern (maybe Southern CT, RI ect?), but I am greedy, I want all the snow lol.

If that’s true hopefully we cash in this winter. Moderate can be decent but isn’t strong nino really bad in SNE? Or would that not really apply in this scenario because stronger ninos are usually east based and this one would be modoki?

Hopefully we get a nino next year and it stays weak

The MEI index of -2.2 for the June July period is reaching record territory. The only time it was lower was during the strong La Niña in 2010-2011. This event is forecast to be much different, with the CFSv2 having us at moderate La Niña (-1) in November, but Enso neutral in January (0). It doesn’t say anything about the MEI, but I would think that would rapidly decline as well. With how sharp the models are saying the rise in temp in the enso 3.4 region will be, if that is real we may even see something like going from La Niña in December to warm neutral or weak Nino by Feb. I’ve never heard of something like that happening, a La Niña the first half of winter an El Niño the 2nd half (some of the more aggressive guidance has that, most dont quite get to nino territory though). Other guidance is hinting at this rapid weakening of the Nina as well so it probably is real to an extent.

Interesting looks like we are in unprecedented territory. The La Niña isn’t all that strong but the MEI index is going ballistic.