George001

Was the 18z 3k nam glitched or something? It had the low getting down to like 900 mb.

What are the odds that this turns into a full blown coastal and it snows 6+ inches right down to Nantucket? Im rooting for a slushy foot, nothing too crazy. NNE is likely the jackpot zone either way. For those really big totals we need the low to close off. It’s a long shot, but when I see a sub 980 low se of my area my first thought is that it’s going to trend a lot snowier.

It looks like they are trending more towards blowing up the second low rather than the first one. That puts us in the game because if the first low blows up, the front hasn’t come through yet, so the low goes west and it rains. With the second low blowing up though, it gives the front more time to come through and the entire evolution is farther east.

Holy shit this is getting interesting

Could be, still holding out hope for something to pop up on the models but the pattern looks really bad. Might be one more window last week of March if the eps is right.

For this storm, I agree. It will come north.

Good interior storm

Miller A, it will trend north.

For the year? Low 50s, slightly above average. Considering how things looked with the late Jan blizzard, really a disappointing end to the winter if it’s really over. It really looked like we had a shot at an epic second half with a polar vortex split, but all that piece of shit over the North Pole did was deepen. It wasn’t a bad winter at all here, but left a lot on the table. Unlike last winter I don’t consider it a garbage winter since we actually got a monster blizzard, first one since 2018. Hopefully next winter the polar vortex shatters into a billion pieces.

Yeah the pattern looks bad. The weekend storm is cooked, hopefully we get a mid-late March storm pop up on the models over the next few days. If not what a disappointing end to winter, like last year.

Eps looks good for a late March nor’easter threat

It looks that way but the models can change. The pattern looked good for a bit and then got worse on the models, maybe it will trend back the other way. Regardless, it can snow even in bad patterns. I’m not giving up until mid April.

In early March? No way in hell!

Winter isn’t shutting off after the weekend threat, there’s a shortwave digging into the Midwest on Tuesday. Right now the models are too late with the northern energy so the shortwave gets shoved se, but there’s still time for that to change.

Yep track and strength of the low. If the low is to our se and is as strong as depicted on guidance (eps mean in the 980s) this could get really interesting even for the coast. Even your area in NYC is in the game of the euro has the right idea with the low location.

Around half of those would be a good track for SNE as well

Good low location

That second low off the SE coast is interesting. When there are 2 lows like that, weird shit can happen like one of the lows absorbing the other. Doesn’t happen often, but I do remember one storm where it did. I was forecast to get 4-8 inches of snow and ended up with 2 feet.

I know I’m grasping at straws a bit here, but it’s a strong storm and not that far NW. What are a couple of wild card factors that could change things so us in eastern mass are in the game for big snows as well? Something like the energy closing off maybe?

Yeah that is ideal for east coast cyclogenesis, I’m rooting for the ridge to trend more amplified to give the storm more room to dig and get farther se areas in the game.

Quite a few slightly offshore lows

this is worth watching even if the surface shows rain.

984 mb is fairly strong, would like to see the deepening happen a little sooner though. Also need the overall evolution to slow down a bit so the cold air has more time to establish itself.

Huh? The low only needs to shift 50 miles east, still 5 days out.

That is very close, the airmass isn’t great but the low is strong enough to create its own cold air. Need to get the low to track a little farther east and game on for a rain to heavy snow scenario.