George001

Nina isn’t bad for New England. We just need the polar vortex to cooperate.

I hope it stays weak so 2014-2015, 1977-1978, and 2004-2005 become better analogs rather than say 2009-2010 or even worse 2015-2016 being an analog for a stronger nino.

That would be nice, SNE does well in weak ninos. Just gotta get the nino to be west based.

Damn looks like this ended up being a nice storm in NNE after all. Some of the guidance close in was light on the QPF, so the 10:1 snow maps weren’t impressive. Was it high ratio snow?

No high to the north, no blocking, storm not closing off, yeah too many factors working against us for this one. I know it’s way too early to say for sure, but what are your early thoughts on the Enso state for winter 2022-2023?

Yeah it’s all rain here and 40 degrees. This storm was always a long shot for us closer to the coast. It’s too bad, it’s a strong storm too. If we had blocking this would have likely been a blizzard, hopefully next winter the polar vortex cooperates more. Can’t really complain about winter for my area though, left some on the table but regardless, slightly above average snow with 20 inches in the monster blizzard late Jan.

Somehow it’s below freezing in DC, and here it’s raining out.

decent chance for Worcester to catch up, Boston’s probably getting nothing for the weekend storm while Worcester has a shot at a few inches on some of the snowier guidance.

Gives me nearly half a foot lol (with ratios probably less). Im not really expecting any accumulation here, didn’t see the trends I was looking for for my area in the upper levels. It would be nice if that’s right though.

The low can create its own cold air, and 2m temps aren’t even worth looking at this far out. If the upper levels are that cold, that’s all snow.

This Saturday isn’t the last threat

Was the 18z 3k nam glitched or something? It had the low getting down to like 900 mb.

What are the odds that this turns into a full blown coastal and it snows 6+ inches right down to Nantucket? Im rooting for a slushy foot, nothing too crazy. NNE is likely the jackpot zone either way. For those really big totals we need the low to close off. It’s a long shot, but when I see a sub 980 low se of my area my first thought is that it’s going to trend a lot snowier.

It looks like they are trending more towards blowing up the second low rather than the first one. That puts us in the game because if the first low blows up, the front hasn’t come through yet, so the low goes west and it rains. With the second low blowing up though, it gives the front more time to come through and the entire evolution is farther east.

Holy shit this is getting interesting

Could be, still holding out hope for something to pop up on the models but the pattern looks really bad. Might be one more window last week of March if the eps is right.

For this storm, I agree. It will come north.

Good interior storm

Miller A, it will trend north.

For the year? Low 50s, slightly above average. Considering how things looked with the late Jan blizzard, really a disappointing end to the winter if it’s really over. It really looked like we had a shot at an epic second half with a polar vortex split, but all that piece of shit over the North Pole did was deepen. It wasn’t a bad winter at all here, but left a lot on the table. Unlike last winter I don’t consider it a garbage winter since we actually got a monster blizzard, first one since 2018. Hopefully next winter the polar vortex shatters into a billion pieces.

Yeah the pattern looks bad. The weekend storm is cooked, hopefully we get a mid-late March storm pop up on the models over the next few days. If not what a disappointing end to winter, like last year.

Eps looks good for a late March nor’easter threat

It looks that way but the models can change. The pattern looked good for a bit and then got worse on the models, maybe it will trend back the other way. Regardless, it can snow even in bad patterns. I’m not giving up until mid April.

In early March? No way in hell!

Winter isn’t shutting off after the weekend threat, there’s a shortwave digging into the Midwest on Tuesday. Right now the models are too late with the northern energy so the shortwave gets shoved se, but there’s still time for that to change.