George001

I don’t really know how to read those super well but it looks like to my untrained eye that everything is below freezing. I’m not so sure it is overdone, that reach around signal is on all guidance. Features like that wouldnt the mesoscale models be able to pick up on better? If anything, I would think it’s being underdone by the global models.

The ridge out west looks very good but right now the guidance doesn’t want to phase the energy. With that upper air pattern though this storm has a chance to come back. Even if it misses guidance is hinting at a vigorous shortwave behind it, could lead to a threat in the March 2-4 period Tip mentioned earlier. We would need the shortwave to dig more, but the upper air pattern suggests it has room to do so. So that would be 3 threats over the next 10 days, active pattern ahead.

Tossed, not in line with the other guidance.

Yeah there is a limit to how far north this can go.

New Euro is out, and it looks really good even south of the pike. North of the pike it has some areas with over a foot. Goalposts are narrowing with a similar look across guidance. Looks like the Euro is most north and Canadian is most south. I’m thinking a blend of my big 3 with more weight towards the Euro. I do think we will see qpf juice up some closer to the event with the trend towards aggressive secondary redevelopment (Miller B) continuing. Snow ratios I’m assuming 10:1. My early call: Boston and pike north: 12-16 inches, isolated 18 inches CT-RI/Mass border on north up to the pike area: 10-14 inches South shore and upper cape: 6-10 inches

I agree that it’s going to tick north a bit. However It’s also going to become more juiced up, and the better dynamics would offset the north tick, leading to a cooler and snowier solution even south of the pike imo.

Navy on board!

If they do, that would put even your area back in the game. You wouldn’t stay all snow in NYC but several inches of front end is very possible if the models keep trending that way.

Wow that’s a snowstorm right down to the cape

I’m extremely bullish on the Feb 28th threat. It doesn’t look great at the surface, but the upper levels tell a different story (I go in more detail in the late winter finale thread). Aside from being a little more optimistic about the Friday storm now, my thoughts have not changed since I made that thread. The guidance is still advertising a very good pattern.

Even your area in NYC gets half a foot now on that. That’s a big shift south on the gfs.

Not as much as it seems. 80 inches is a lot, but there’s a good chance Boston gets to 50 on Friday, probably more. Then there is the next week storm, which I am extremely bullish on due to how amplified the ridge out west is. There is a good chance Boston is at 60 or so inches headed into March (this is conservative based on the upper air pattern for the end of Feb) Then 20 or more inches on March.

Boston will be close to if not over 80 inches by the end of the winter imo

What about Feb 2nd 2015? It looks like this one is turning into a Miller B like that one was.

Mid Atlantic is probably cooked with that look but it’s good for us since we are farther north. The se ridge prevent suppression, mid Atlantic rains while we get buried.

Overrunning to coastal?

New euro looks a little colder, primary doesn’t drive as far NW and a little more aggressive with the secondary redevelopment (Miller B).

Sorry for your loss my man, that sucks.

I buy that qpf, not sure how much is snow but I do think the models will trend more towards and earlier transfer and stronger secondary low. Also, can’t it snow east of the mid level lows? It did in the March 2017 storm with the mid levels way west.

Absolutely terrible model, Euro way more consistent.

I agree with this. Our area south of the pike we probably won’t stay snow the whole storm, but we will get significant front end before any changeover.

Euro and Canadian on board for 8-12 inches mid CT-RI north

Holy shit that’s amazing up to 10 inches for my area

Even if this doesn’t turn into a full blown Miller B, the models aren’t really showing much of a dry slot. A dry slot shutting off the precip early would lead to lower snow totals like some of the earlier Euro runs that maxed out at 6-7 inches.

Yeah my earlier thoughts of someone possibly getting 18 is a long shot. The kuchera maps would show more but like you guys were saying earlier with the mid levels not being great those aren’t the way to go. The Canadian looked a little more aggressive with the secondary redevelopment which is a good sign.