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George001

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Everything posted by George001

  1. George001
    Quite a few slightly offshore lows
  2. George001
    this is worth watching even if the surface shows rain.
  3. George001
    984 mb is fairly strong, would like to see the deepening happen a little sooner though. Also need the overall evolution to slow down a bit so the cold air has more time to establish itself.
  4. George001
    Huh? The low only needs to shift 50 miles east, still 5 days out.
  5. George001
    That is very close, the airmass isn’t great but the low is strong enough to create its own cold air. Need to get the low to track a little farther east and game on for a rain to heavy snow scenario.
  6. George001
    Too early to write it off, it looks bad but there’s still a couple weeks left for us to possibly get lucky and get a big storm and snow in a bad pattern. There’s no way we get shut out for the entire month….
  7. George001
    Ensembles look good for mid month, I’m not giving up until early-mid April.
  8. George001
    Also despite the surface trending worse from 0z, the upper levels trended better, there was hardly any blocking at 0z. We need that to continue to get the storm to redevelop farther south.
  9. George001
    This far out that’s doable, also you if the low deepens as much as the Euro says it will we don’t need a perfect track. The storm will create its own cold air, and the rain snow line would crash south. It can snow east of the low.
  10. George001
    Greenland blocking showing up on the Euro, this threat looks interesting.
  11. George001
    I need to see a few more favorable changes in the pattern before I start talking blizzards, right now the western ridge axis is west of ideal, so an inland runner is possible. However there are signs of weak North Atlantic blocking starting to form, which could turn it into a Miller B. If we see the blocking strengthen on the guidance, then I’m all in.
  12. George001
    Eps looks decent, geps is also trying for a Miller B. That’s what the models look to be hinting at right now, a low initially cuts to our west, but then redevelops and bombs out just a little too late. Get that redevelopment to happen a little earlier and all of a sudden we have a big nor’easter.
  13. George001
    Is that North Atlantic blocking over Greenland? Wow
  14. George001
    that’s a very strong signal this far out
  15. George001
    I’m rooting for that to be right. I’d like to see a late March early April nor’easter/blizzard, and it looks like we could have a shot at it this year.
  16. George001
    I agree, if the NAO is raging positive, it’s not ideal but it can work (like 2014-2015). If there is a trough out west it is a lot harder to get big storms.
  17. George001
    The polar vortex reconsolidates over the North Pole? Ah damn it, I thought we were having a polar vortex split just in time for a big finish. We need the pacific to improve.
  18. George001
    Possible PV split, there is some lag so we won’t feel the effects until mid to late March and early April.
  19. George001
    Yep. Still have a month left of threats, possibly a bit longer if the pattern looks great in early April. It’s going to get mild but the mild stretch looks to be short lived, with the rapid weakening of polar vortex and MJO wave dying off in the COD. Way to early to give up on winter.
  20. George001
    Congrats Montreal?
  21. George001
    Im not a fan of the look on the models for early month. I hate seeing a trough out west and a lack of blocking. We could still snow in a bad pattern because we live in New England not DC where you need a perfect pattern to snow, but probably nothing big. There are positive signs for mid month though. The polar vortex is expected to weaken a lot as well as a more favorable MJO projected mid to late March. Hopefully that leads to the pattern improving with a big storm before spring.
  22. George001
    Hopefully a weak one. Moderate and stronger not good for my area (though in NYC they can be better). Weak west based ninos are where we get most of our truly epic winters. 77-78, 2014-2015, 2004-2005 all had weak west based ninos. It’s been a while since we had an epic region wide winter with well above normal snow in all of New England.
  23. George001
    What do you think about the March 7th threat? SE ridge too strong at that point or is there room for it to turn into an swfe or Miller B? I would think we need that vortex over Greenland a bit farther south to force secondary redevelopment.
  24. George001
    Looks like maybe a few smaller storms early March, maybe we can get something big the second week? Models are showing a cutter, but it wouldn’t take much to turn that into a SWFE or even Miller B.
  25. George001
    We’ve had a tough stretch the past few years. Last 3 years in particular were horrendous in se areas, this is the first real winter we have had since 2018.
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