George001

All it takes is one storm to hit 21 inches, you can get that even in a bad pattern. This upcoming pattern looks great. At least 6-12 is looking likely Friday with possibly more of this trends to more of a Miller B, then a bigger storm threat Feb 28th. If that whiffs, we have more opportunities early March.

Euro doubled the snow in my area vs 0z.

Could we use my late winter finale thread for that

Mid levels trending in the right direction

Looks like we got another threat to track end of Feb after the Friday one.

That looks juiced up from previous runs. A foot for areas that stay all snow, and my area looks like a little less (like 7-8) probably due to some mixing at the end.

Yep, this could easily turn into a Miller B with snowfall totals much higher than typical swfes.

I like the Friday threat, but man the following threat looks even better.

I was excited for a big threat mid Feb as well, and while it was a respectable storm (ended up with 7-8 inches) it didn’t quite pan out the way I originally thought with the big late Jan type phase. This setup is significantly better than that one. What the late Feb threat has going for it that the mid month didnt is a significantly more poleward western ridge. The pattern was just a bit too progressive for a big phase mid month, but even so we saw that northern energy trend more aggressive like the pattern argued it would. With this threat similar to the last one, the ridge axis is over Idaho, which is slightly west of ideal but very good. It argues that a storm would have plenty of room to trend NW. The main difference is for this threat, we have the ridge out west extending to the north pole, where as the mid month threat only had it extending to NW Canada. This would support a more amplified pattern, giving the northern energy more room to strengthen and dig more SW, likely enough to tap gulf moisture. If this idea is correct, the northern stream would be able to do it on its own. There would be plenty of room for the trough to go negative early enough to bring the storm up the coast (Miller B cyclogenesis). With a northern vort digging that far SW and then strengthening rapidly as it taps gulf moisture, as the trough goes negative there is a decent chance we could see the upper low close off. In my opinion, this threat has a good chance at working out because are less at the mercy of timing since we wouldn’t really need a full phase with a strong piece of southern energy. If we get that it would up the ante even more, but it wouldn’t be necessary. I like this threat even more than I like the Friday storm. Friday is a legitimate threat and I like what I saw from the models tonight. However, it is more thread the needle for a bigger solution and even if everything goes right, the upside is capped somewhat compared to what the ceiling is with the Feb 28 threat.

Eps has a low offshore for this time period now. Look how amplified and far west that western ridge is, this threat has big potential. Then we could have another threat March 5-6th or so.

Speaking of positive trends, the Canadian looks good. More of a traditional swfe rather than a swfe/Miller B hybrid, but it’s a colder solution with a widespread 6-10 before mixing comes in. For the higher end solutions like I was talking about earlier, we would need more aggressive secondary redevelopment and more favorable trends with the mid levels as well. 6-10 is still a good storm though, and it makes sense to lean that way rather than the bigger solutions right now.

Yeah that’s fair. There needs to be a balance, like it would be dumb to call for a blizzard in July or when the models are locked in on a big Rainer with a storm cutting to Wisconsin like 24 hours out. However you can be realistic and still bring positive energy. For us weenies tracking is part of the fun. It’s nice to see positive trends and seeing others sharing that excitement even if us weenies know in the back of our minds it may not happen that way.

Yeah I’m glad he’s posting here. Always positive, never loses hope even when the models trend the wrong way and the setup doesn’t favor snow in NYC. His positive energy is a great addition to this forum.

Old nogaps

Yep

The geps doubled down, this system is loaded with moisture. That’s a big area of 1+ inches qpf on a mean. This far out that’s a huge signal. Will the storm track likely be north of the gfs? Yeah, but that’s a good thing. Gfs is south of ideal. I’d like to see the Euro and eps bump south some, but the geps look really good. Euro looks good track wise but it is kind of weak with limited moisture. Imo we will see op runs start beefing up the QPF as we get closer to the storm, with this evolving into a something more significant than a typical swfe. The question is how much of that QPF is snow.

Canadian has some front end before a changeover

What changes would we need to see on the models to see a shift towards a Feb 2 2015 type solution rather than a boring ol 4-7 snow to mix to drizzle+dryslot SWFE? The OP runs don’t look great but it seems like the ensembles are more aggressive with the snow.

yeah pattern doesn’t support the gfs. Swfe on roids Miller B hybrid.

I like how far north the vortex is, that should help us avoid suppression like March 2014.

Yeah that looks like it would be. Late Jan 2015 I believe was one of those, hopefully we can get the pieces to align for something similar. Pattern looks great.

Wow

I’m going with a blend of the big 3, I do think gfs is too far south. However, I would say the ceiling is 18 inches not 8-12 due to all the moisture involved. There is also a good amount of confluence in the upper levels so that should help with a more favorable mid level track.

Eh idk we have a very strong high to the north with secondary redevelopment. I don’t buy this being a run of the mill SWFE, it’s trending into a juiced up SWFE/ Miller B hybrid.

1038 mb high to the north in a decent location on the Canadian. I’m leaning cold and snowy with this one, I looked at the ensembles a bit more and really like what I see. This setup has a lot going for it, even the Canadian although it’s warmer it has a decent low track and the secondary redevelopment. The European guidance has been the warmest with this, and it trended in the right direction this afternoon. I would like to see another bump colder on that.