George001

Well, the gfs gave me like 3 inches of snow and the Euro gave me 2 feet. I got 20 inches, as far west as NYC got like 10 inches. I thought the Euro did a damn good job with the last storm. The gfs was so far east that it was consistently giving NYC nothing and even barely grazing Boston, until it caught on at the end. The Euro was a little too far west, but it was much closer to reality at least with the upper levels than the gfs.

The Canadian is neck and neck with the GFS in terms of verification score. That’s not great, admittedly I expected it to be better, I will have to adjust my system accordingly. However, the Canadian has a consistent bias (it is horrendous with thermals and tends to be overamped with storms). This makes it easier to adjust for the model bias and weigh it accordingly. The GFS is sometimes too amped, sometimes too weak, who the hell knows. How am I supposed to mentally adjust for its biases when it is just… erratic. As expected though, the Euro was by far the best. The Navy’s verification wasn’t on the site I used, but it is likely horrendous.

This “dumb kids’” opposition to the gfs is backed up by actual data. Whatever upgrade it got clearly didn’t do shit. The Euro always has been better and I don’t see this changing anytime soon.

I don’t use the gfs and don’t plan on using it anytime soon.

Yeah, that’s not happening. I’m not giving up on the Navy, and I will never use the gfs. I fully understand what you are saying, and I am well aware of the caveats of using the Navy. My rationale for my usage of the big 3 is attached in the photo below. You don’t have to agree with it, but I have been using it and will continue to use it. This system is what I use for every storm, and although I tweak it over time I have not changed the core principles of my system. I will be open to tweaking it, but let me be clear, the big 3 is not going anywhere.

Yep exactly. If the Navy isn’t on board, I’m not on board.

We need the energy to be held back more. The slower the storm is to come in the more time the high has to build in. I’m not on board for this one yet, need to see the big 3 jump on board before I buy in.

For this winter the ratter possibility is gone. Many areas in SNE and the northern mid Atlantic (they have had a surprisingly good winter considering we have a La Niña) have already surpassed or are very close to their seasonal average for the entire winter. Boston’s seasonal average is what like 42-44 inches of snow per winter? Boston is already at 36.5 inches and there are still nearly 2 months left of winter. The question is will this go down as an average-good winter, or a great or even an epic winter?

Didn’t he forecast 25 inches of snow in Boston the entire winter? I remember reading that and thinking that was very aggressive, as even if we have a bad pattern the entire winter all it takes is like 2 storms and we break that. The long range guidance looks colder and snowier for Feb now. For a while the guidance was insistent on an extended thaw, I wonder if the volcanic activity has anything to do with the sudden shift colder. I’m not really sure about that, I’ve read mixed things about how it would impact winters in New England.

How is the rain snow line so far north with the low that far south?

Navy looks like a major ice storm in SNE based on the thermals. Snow in NNE

Yeah that’s a major ice storm. .30-.40 inches of ice is no joke, but it appears there a hole in Connecticut around the Tolland area where there’s no ice at all.

That’s true. It’s like 1040+, that’s even stronger than we had during the blizzard yesterday. Now we will also have a more unfavorable low track working against us if the Canadian is right, so that would warm up the mid levels. I do think the high to the north will keep the temps cooler than forecast even if the low goes to Buffalo thomas a result, leading to an ice storm. I I’m skeptical of an all snow solution since the Navy is north with the low, and when the Navy is north of other guidance that’s a huge red flag.

The Canadian is a great model, always want to have it on board.

That storm was so frustrating for me. It was in the teens the night before and then it warmed up and rained. Such a waste of cold air. For a few days there I was convinced we would waste this favorable January pattern, and would be lucky to get to average snowfall this winter in eastern mass. Fortunately the pattern delivered in the end, hopefully it reloads in Feb and we get another monster blizzard. If that happens, this winter will go from good to epic. A good winter is one with at least 2 big storms that bring a foot or more of snow, and finishes above our seasonal average. An epic winter for me has at least 2 massive blizzards (as much as I wish it would happen every winter, most winters we don’t even get one never mind 2 or more).

That’s fair. A slushy foot usually will take longer to melt so that’s nice. For me I’m generally the same way, if I’m forecast to get like 12+ and end up with 8 I’ll be disappointed. However if I’m forecast to get like 2-4 and end up with 8 I’ll be happy, it’s relative to expectations. Where I am different is my cutoff for being happy no matter what is lower. When I go outside and bring my 12 inch ruler to measure the snow, and it isn’t enough, that’s a successful storm in my eyes.

I’ve been on multiple boards, and this is by far the most chill one I’ve seen. I have been banned from other boards for being a huge weenie after my forecast busted. The posters here will give me some shit but it’s all in good fun. I forecasted a huge blizzard a few days out when the Navy was showing it for the MLK storm, but unfortunately the Navy was wrong and it rained instead.

what would you guys rather have? A foot of powder, or a slushy foot before a changeover to sleet and then freezing rain? I got around that in the March 2017 storm, was a nice storm, but I was a bit disappointed when I saw we only got a slushy foot while places NW had way more.

This storm lived up to its name, a massive blizzard with snow right down to the cape. This truly was a textbook James storm, although it started as rain on cape cod, as the low continues to deepen the rain snow line crashed south due to dynamic cooling. Blizzard conditions were confirmed as far west as Worcester and as far east as Hyannis.

Lol this storm is amazing

Yep that’s right, I just looked at the hours but the storm ends tonight not Monday.

4 days out Euro pretty much nailed it, had a few wobbles after that, but it had the right idea. In my opinion the models did fairly well with this storm. I got a little carried away with those kuchera maps, they overdid it on the snow ratios some. Gfs just had no idea what was going on.

Got about 18-20 here, on the NW edge of that death band earlier.

I am from eastern mass so mostly post on the New England board, but I every time I see you post it’s something negative. This winter has been great so far, NYC is already just a few inches under it’s seasonal average and so is Boston, and there are 2 months left. Cmon man, stop being such a buzzkill and enjoy your foot.

One of the best winter months I’ve seen, up there with Jan 2011, Feb 2013, March 2018. Feb 2015 of course stands alone as the snowiest month ever recorded in Boston. Boston is only a few inches behind last years total for the entire winter, and we still have Feb and March.