George001

I have a question for those smarter than me with this stuff, it looks like this run of the gfs is going to be a close miss or graze eastern areas. That third piece of energy diving in from Canada looks to be a wild card, do we want that closer to us to phase in, or is that unrealistic? Would we be better off having that hold back more? My thought process is that we don’t need the third piece, and if we get the phasing of the first 2 pieces we can get a big storm but not historic like the blizzard, which is a high probability outcome. However, if the 3rd piece trends closer, if it phases in it has the potenital to be historic like the January blizzard, which is a low probability outcome. If it does trend closer but not close enough to phase though, it would act as a kicker and we get nothing, which is also a high probability outcome.

Nice, good start to the 0z suite. Hopefully the other models trend in the right direction as well.

Hopefully the 2/13-14 shortwave gets out faster and the 2/15 one is a little slower. I’m going to root for the Miller b, those are usually better here. EPS will be interesting.

Euro trying for a Miller b

I don’t understand all the negativity with this storm, the upper air pattern looks good and we are really just a few small tweaks away from a big hit.

Theres one and a half months left of winter, SSW or not there’s no reason to be negative at this point.

This doesn’t look that bad, just need all the energy to consolidate. With the strong western ridge I don’t see why the northern energy would be that progressive.

Wow that is so close to something much bigger

Lots of improvements in the upper levels on the models. Ensembles are starting to show more hits at the surface as well though it still needs a little work. The pattern looks really good, and it doesn’t look like it’s far from something much bigger looking at the pattern and upper levels on the models either.

The Euro appears to be a miss, like the other guidance. However, the Canadian ensembles have trended towards much more amplified northern energy, leading to a massive shift west with the lows as well as increasing the strength of the lows. It is now signaling snow in New England. Lets see what the eps says, I’d like to see continued improvement in the upper levels even if the surface doesn’t reflect it. This far out having the ensembles on board is a big deal.

I have been watching this window on the models for a week now. The models showed the signal far out, but as we got closer they started burying the southern energy out west. However, the players on the field never left. Like the during the late January blizzard, we have a monster ridge out west with a deep trough in the east. The 12z eps doesn’t quite dig the energy enough to produce a big storm, but the following factors combined with continued favorable trends on the models tonight has me convinced there will be a big storm during the Feb 13-14th timeframe. Pros and cons: pros: 1. Arctic air, 540 line is as far south as the southeastern United States, and there is a strong high to the north. 2. Ridge axis is centered over Washington, which is VERY far west, and argues for a more western low 3. Atlantic ridging Cons: 1. Lack of North Atlantic blocking 2. Timing of the energy isn’t great I am convinced that the models are underestimating how much the northern energy will dig, and that the models will continue to trend more and more amplified. The stronger and farther west the northern energy digs, the more time the southern energy will have to get ahead of the northern energy, and the farther west the phase will happen. If the northern branch digs as much as I think it will, it will phase early enough that we will see a closed off strengthening upper low, which would slow the storm down and allow it to deepen rapidly. The track would also be farther west than what the models have right now, and would result in heavy snow and blizzard conditions in eastern mass. Despite the surface not reflecting it, models have trended more amplified with the western ridge, with a northern branch digging more and farther west.

Big model runs tonight and tomorrow for the mid month storm threat. Models lost the storm, but we are getting into the timeframe that we want to start seeing some positive changes even if it’s not a hit. If the ensembles jump on board as well this will get really interesting.

High 40s or so, not terrible but not great either. This winter so far I’m in the low 30s, which is very good for this time of the year. On pace to finish in the high 50s to low 60s.

Feb 2021 was really bad in eastern mass. I got 8 inches, then I drive 30 minutes to Framingham and what do ya know, they got 18 inches.

Nice

No we don’t want models taking steps back, hopefully we see the ensembles start beefing up the low.

Euro brought the storm back, It has a low now.

Hopefully we get at least one more big one before spring. I wouldn’t say it looks boring the next 2 weeks though, the mid month period has potential. Just need the energy to eject faster. The recent guidance is burying the energy out west, so the storm gets squashed. After that though yeah it looks like it’s going to get mild late Feb. I do think the eps is onto something with the warm up late month.

It’s still the first week of Feb there is roughly a month and a half left. It looks like the models support a warmup in late Feb, but who knows how long that will last.

Yuck I hope that’s transient

There could be a warmup late Feb but even if there is, we don’t know if it’s sustained or not yet. There is still all of March after that.

Mid Feb looks promising on the models. March also has a lot of potential if the pattern doesn’t break down.

I hope not, that would suck if winter shuts off a month early like last year.

This isn’t a good sign for my area lol

Mid winter update: Where I went right: The La Niña has been in control and is actively influencing our weather pattern. November was warm, as expected. The first 3 weeks of December I expected to be mild, and it was. My Jan forecast verified well, Jan was cold and had 2 snowstorms, with a monster blizzard at the end of the month. Not quite 40-45 inches in the Boston area, but at 36.2 inches I’ll consider that a good call. Where I went wrong: First of all, I did not assess the enso region correctly (Ray had the right idea here, with a peak of -.9 to -1.1). The La Niña is not strong, it peaked at -1 degrees Celsius, so high end weak/low end moderate, not strong or high end moderate like I thought. However, the La Niña despite not being particularly strong is well coupled and has been influencing our weather pattern. The La Niña is also more east based rather than central based like I initially thought, which is less favorable for December, and more favorable for Feb-March. In my opinion, the misjudgment of the enso was a big reason why my forecast busted (was too cold and snowy) in December, and why it will likely bust in Feb as well (too warm and snowless). January is often very good in Ninas, whether they are strong, weak, east based or central based. Despite this error, I did have the right idea of the enso state being well coupled enough to influence our weather pattern, which is part of why I was so bullish on January. I was also incorrect on my outlook for the polar vortex. I was thinking there would be a major polar vortex disruption in late December, with the polar vortex weakening rapidly before deepening again in Feb. However, the polar vortex has been strong the entire winter, and looks to remain strong in the near future. There were warning signs, such as the lackluster Siberian snowcover during the fall, and the snowcover in North America was very low as well in late fall and early winter. I should give these more weight and less weight to the long range models in the future, as I overestimated how accurate the long range models are for predicting polar vortex strength. However, despite the very strong polar vortex this winter is nowhere near being a ratter. Since the blocking broke down in late December, the NAO has been mostly positive and looks to remain that way on the models for Feb. It is very likely that both Jan and Feb will end up being positive NAO months. This is consistent with the strong polar vortex. This goes into my next point though, despite the polar vortex being strong and the blocking being minimal, the polar vortex isn’t super consolidated. It has been elongated at times, and has been on our side of the globe. So while we aren’t getting blocking, it’s not mild and snowless like many strong polar vortex winters. Also, due to the Nina being more east based than I expected, the pacific pattern has been more favorable than I expected, counteracting the less favorable Atlantic. Areas to the south like Atlantic City have also done much better than I expected, in large part due to an active subtropical jet. I am still thinking my snowfall ranges have a decent chance to verify, though I’m thinking it will be on the lower end. 85 inches in Boston is pushing it, we aren’t really on a 2010-2011 or 2014-2015 track. Those winters both had over 50 inches of snow in Boston by now, we are more on track for a 2017-2018 type of winter (possibly a little better due to us wasting Dec instead of Feb). The risk is the strong polar vortex takes over and winter shuts off in late Feb, or we run the table and have a March 2018 type run that starts a few weeks early (if I remember correctly the March 2018 pattern didn’t break down until like mid April, but climo was too hostile by late March or so to really take advantage of it like we did the first half of the month). Im thinking more something in the middle ends up verifying. We will have to see though, we will know more in late Feb.