George001

Just like 10 days ago it looked like we were wasting a favorable pattern that was going to break down and transition to a mild Feb. Now, there’s a raging blizzard outside right now where I live and that warm up looks to be short lived, with a very cold pattern in mid Feb being shown on the long range models. It’s crazy how quickly things changed.

Probably will. There’s no way they finish with under 20 with that band just sitting there and rotting over eastern mass all day. 30 is possible

I completely agree. The inland runner is trending east and there’s a very strong high to the north, despite all the warmth surging in at the upper levels.

Yep, just south of Boston is looking like the jackpot area. I saw reports that some areas are getting 4+ inches an hour.

All of a sudden this winter went from meh to great

He’s Boston area right? I’m like the very NW edge of the death band and have like 11-12 inches, looks like we are on track to end up with like 2 feet. Areas in the center of that band gotta be at 20+ already. He’s gonna get 3 feet lol

What a storm, for us in eastern mass this is a big one, up there with the Jan 2015, March 2018, and Feb 2013 blizzards.

Interesting… a second low formed. In eastern mass, the snow rates have been increasing over the past few hours. My area is up to 8-10 inches or so and areas se that have been in the banding for longer are well over a foot. If that second low ends up becoming dominant, we may see the death band strengthen even more, more snow getting thrown back west.

He’s a huge weenie, he’s one of us lol

I woke up, looked outside and only saw like 3-4 inches of snow. Then at the low position and saw it was east, and got worried that the storm was going to bust. Im feeling a lot better about it now, my area is up to like 7-8 inches now with extremely heavy snow. How much do you have? Looking at the radar it looks like your area has been in the banding all morning, you gotta be over a foot by now. This is like that epic Jan 2015 blizzard all over again, what a storm!

Man idk how it’s gonna snow that much when the low is so far east. I only have a few inches right now (though it appears the snowfall rate has increased over the past hour or so). Hopefully they see something we don’t, possibly the low getting tugged back NW?

Eyeballing it I’m at 4-5 inches or so right now. Looks like the heaviest banding is just to my east and is rotating in.

Hopefully the low starts retrograding NW soon

NOOOOOOO!!!!! RIP my forecast

Apparently it’s raining in parts of cape cod. Yep, rain.

I stand corrected.

Low has deepened to 994 mb. The 0z Euro had it at 998 mb at 3 hours after initializing at 1002 mb. The Euro initialized at 1 am, so to be on track the low should be 998 mb by 4 am. It is 2am and the low is already much stronger than expected…

Yeah I could definitely be overestimating the ratios, if I am we won’t get anywhere near 40. That is in the back of my mind, and if it happens it happens. Regardless, it will be the biggest storm I’ve had since 2018 so I’m just happy it’s happening, I wouldn’t even be disappointed with 18. For most storms it takes an awful lot of mental gymnastics to convince myself that I even have a shot at 18 (I try to be objective, but sometimes my weenie goggles cloud my judgement). I have a really good feeling about this one based on what I’m seeing on the models and the observations, but we will know more tomorrow morning.

Unfortunately the 0z hasn’t loaded yet on tropical tidbits, but man that temp contrast is insane. Like -20c in eastern mass to above freezing just offshore. The thermals all around that area in eastern mass are warmer, there’s gotta be an absurd amount of dynamical cooling going on there.

I’m thinking Boston gets around 40 or so. I believe the snow ratios are being underestimated, and will be 20:1 or 25:1 in that death band that’s going to set up somewhere in eastern mass, sit there and rotate. The dynamics in that early Jan storm? Amazing, but in this storm the dynamics are expected to be even stronger. We have frigid Canadian air clashing with warmer than average oceans, I saw that the contrast was something crazy like temps in 20s clashing with ocean temps near 80 down south. That is helping beef up the low to what will eventually be tropical storm strength (I do believe the low will deepen more than expected by the models, to the 950s rather than 960s). The low is also closing off and stalling, so we could see like 4-6 inches of snow an hour for like 6 straight hours under the death band. QPF maps won’t pick up on that.

I thought he was talking about this storm https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/2018-03-19-winter-storm-toby-fourth-march-noreaster-northeast-snow

If Ray liked it yeah I probably got the wrong storm, he got like 30 from that mid March blizzard.

I don’t think he was talking the mid March one, he’s talking the late March one that nailed LI and whiffed eastern mass. The mid march one was awesome, I got 2 feet in that.

OH GOD NOT THAT STORM NOOOOOOOOOOO

Storm is overperforming in the coastal mid atlantic also looks to be overperforming in NYC. There’s no way that doesn’t translate to up here.