George001

Could we use my late winter finale thread for that

Mid levels trending in the right direction

Looks like we got another threat to track end of Feb after the Friday one.

That looks juiced up from previous runs. A foot for areas that stay all snow, and my area looks like a little less (like 7-8) probably due to some mixing at the end.

Yep, this could easily turn into a Miller B with snowfall totals much higher than typical swfes.

I like the Friday threat, but man the following threat looks even better.

I was excited for a big threat mid Feb as well, and while it was a respectable storm (ended up with 7-8 inches) it didn’t quite pan out the way I originally thought with the big late Jan type phase. This setup is significantly better than that one. What the late Feb threat has going for it that the mid month didnt is a significantly more poleward western ridge. The pattern was just a bit too progressive for a big phase mid month, but even so we saw that northern energy trend more aggressive like the pattern argued it would. With this threat similar to the last one, the ridge axis is over Idaho, which is slightly west of ideal but very good. It argues that a storm would have plenty of room to trend NW. The main difference is for this threat, we have the ridge out west extending to the north pole, where as the mid month threat only had it extending to NW Canada. This would support a more amplified pattern, giving the northern energy more room to strengthen and dig more SW, likely enough to tap gulf moisture. If this idea is correct, the northern stream would be able to do it on its own. There would be plenty of room for the trough to go negative early enough to bring the storm up the coast (Miller B cyclogenesis). With a northern vort digging that far SW and then strengthening rapidly as it taps gulf moisture, as the trough goes negative there is a decent chance we could see the upper low close off. In my opinion, this threat has a good chance at working out because are less at the mercy of timing since we wouldn’t really need a full phase with a strong piece of southern energy. If we get that it would up the ante even more, but it wouldn’t be necessary. I like this threat even more than I like the Friday storm. Friday is a legitimate threat and I like what I saw from the models tonight. However, it is more thread the needle for a bigger solution and even if everything goes right, the upside is capped somewhat compared to what the ceiling is with the Feb 28 threat.

Eps has a low offshore for this time period now. Look how amplified and far west that western ridge is, this threat has big potential. Then we could have another threat March 5-6th or so.

Speaking of positive trends, the Canadian looks good. More of a traditional swfe rather than a swfe/Miller B hybrid, but it’s a colder solution with a widespread 6-10 before mixing comes in. For the higher end solutions like I was talking about earlier, we would need more aggressive secondary redevelopment and more favorable trends with the mid levels as well. 6-10 is still a good storm though, and it makes sense to lean that way rather than the bigger solutions right now.

Yeah that’s fair. There needs to be a balance, like it would be dumb to call for a blizzard in July or when the models are locked in on a big Rainer with a storm cutting to Wisconsin like 24 hours out. However you can be realistic and still bring positive energy. For us weenies tracking is part of the fun. It’s nice to see positive trends and seeing others sharing that excitement even if us weenies know in the back of our minds it may not happen that way.

Yeah I’m glad he’s posting here. Always positive, never loses hope even when the models trend the wrong way and the setup doesn’t favor snow in NYC. His positive energy is a great addition to this forum.

Old nogaps

Yep

The geps doubled down, this system is loaded with moisture. That’s a big area of 1+ inches qpf on a mean. This far out that’s a huge signal. Will the storm track likely be north of the gfs? Yeah, but that’s a good thing. Gfs is south of ideal. I’d like to see the Euro and eps bump south some, but the geps look really good. Euro looks good track wise but it is kind of weak with limited moisture. Imo we will see op runs start beefing up the QPF as we get closer to the storm, with this evolving into a something more significant than a typical swfe. The question is how much of that QPF is snow.

Canadian has some front end before a changeover

What changes would we need to see on the models to see a shift towards a Feb 2 2015 type solution rather than a boring ol 4-7 snow to mix to drizzle+dryslot SWFE? The OP runs don’t look great but it seems like the ensembles are more aggressive with the snow.

yeah pattern doesn’t support the gfs. Swfe on roids Miller B hybrid.

I like how far north the vortex is, that should help us avoid suppression like March 2014.

Yeah that looks like it would be. Late Jan 2015 I believe was one of those, hopefully we can get the pieces to align for something similar. Pattern looks great.

Wow

I’m going with a blend of the big 3, I do think gfs is too far south. However, I would say the ceiling is 18 inches not 8-12 due to all the moisture involved. There is also a good amount of confluence in the upper levels so that should help with a more favorable mid level track.

Eh idk we have a very strong high to the north with secondary redevelopment. I don’t buy this being a run of the mill SWFE, it’s trending into a juiced up SWFE/ Miller B hybrid.

1038 mb high to the north in a decent location on the Canadian. I’m leaning cold and snowy with this one, I looked at the ensembles a bit more and really like what I see. This setup has a lot going for it, even the Canadian although it’s warmer it has a decent low track and the secondary redevelopment. The European guidance has been the warmest with this, and it trended in the right direction this afternoon. I would like to see another bump colder on that.

For the Friday system the question is, is this a run off the mill SWFE, front end snow to mix then drizzle and dry slot, or is it something more? I was originally thinking it was just a run of the mill SWFE, but the models have trended towards more secondary redevelopment (Miller B) over the past couple of days. This is seen on the 12Z EPS. The GEPS is even more aggressive with the secondary redevelopment and has an absurd amount of moisture involved, shown in the pics below. that’s a widespread .75+ inches of QPF with over 1 inch in the mid Atlantic, and that’s a mean 7 days out. There is also a strong high to the north on all guidance, 1038 mb in an ideal location. That’s arctic airmass to the north combined with the clash of well above normal temps to the south, has me convinced that this system will have significantly more moisture than a run of the mill 4-8 inches of snow SWFE. This type of setup we will see above normal temps south of the boundary and below normal north of it, but the temp contrast with this system is much more pronounced than normal. We have a near 1040 mb high clashing with a mild southern airmass bringing near record high temps to the area on Wednesday when the first storm passes to our north. My area is forecast to reach 60 degrees on Wednesday, this is the average temperature for mid April, not late Feb. We are going to have arctic cold ramming into that unseasonably warm airmass to the south. Due to these factors, in my opinion this has room to juice up even more.

I’d say B right now. December was garbage, January was epic with a monster blizzard, and Feb we had a decent snowstorm mid month with another threat Friday. Feb is still up in the air depending on how that works out. Whether or not this winter stays at B, goes down to a B- or goes up to an A rides on late Feb and the rest of March. If we get another blizzard this winter moves up to an A. Above average snow+ 1 monster blizzard automatically takes us above a C, 2 and well above average snow (60+ inches) and this winter is an A. A+ is reserved for the record breaking winters. Well below average temps, 3+ blizzards, nearly double our average snow or more, and great snowpack retention. These are the 2014-2015, and 2010-2011 type winters.