George001

Yes I would, I never use the GFS. Euro Canadian and Navy are the 3 models I look at mid range. Now my concern is the Euro and Canadian are inland, but the ensembles are farther SE while the navy has a blizzard. There is a lot of cold air in place so as long as the low doesn’t go west of us we should be fine.

Good thing it’s the GFS showing it, the GFS is horrible.

Lol the low is going into Ontario. Maybe we can get it to trend so far west that it gets forced under by the trailing wave and turns into a Miller B instead on the Euro and Canadian guidance?

Yes I’m a big fan of the navy. Euro, Canadian, Navy are my favorite long range models. I wish the Navy had ensembles like the Euro and Canadian though.

Wouldn’t that track snow everywhere NW of the low like Jan 2011 due to the airmass in place combined with how strong and wrapped up the storm is?

I’m on board. The big 3 is on board for a major storm. Canadian and European guidance is a bit inland and turns us to rain, and the Navy has a monster blizzard even on the cape. A blend of the guidance would be a track over the outer canal or so, which would be great for anyone NW of the low.

HOLY SHIT LOOK AT THE NAVY! MONSTER BLIZZARD!!!!

Yeah I’m rooting for this to morph into a Miller B. I hate Miller As

How much wiggle room is there with this one in terms of rain snow lines? I see that the Canadian is also inland so that can’t really be discounted. I know a track over NYC would rain here but if it were to say track over the canal would that be a snowy solution, or would the rain snow line go well inland of where the low is?

I agree, there is a lot of cold air in place and also we have North Atlantic blocking for this storm. That will help prevent the low from running inland, I’m more worried about missing to the south.

I thought some of the models had that as a Miller B? I hope we trend back to that I hate Miller As, I’m not interested in DC stealing all our snow. We need the evolution of the storm to change again…

I’m with you on that, give me a Miller B over Miller A any day, that’s why I’m rooting for the Monday nor’easter over the Friday one.

This pattern seems to be wild, not the type of pattern where models will lock onto a big storm a week out and then hold it. In my opinion a big storm is going to pop up out of nowhere sometimes over the next few days on the models. It looks like the massive ocean low that at the moment looks like it’s going to miss to the south is buckling the flow. It looks like there is a strong piece of northern stream energy diving down behind the near miss ocean low on the Canadian, and it appears to be going out to sea harmlessly. On this run it does, but energy coming in behind it is just a few hours too late to phase in and hook that low back in, slamming eastern areas. The low gets all the way down to 975 mb even with a late phase, imagine how strong the low would be with a phase just a few hours earlier!

The La Niña is east based, that is usually good for Feb and March. I don’t think this winter is going anywhere, there’s still 2 and a half months left of winter.

Considering that this winter got off to a slow start that would suck. I’m rooting for winter until late March

Yuck I hope that’s wrong

That’s good for Sunday/Monday’s threat

Yeah this winter got off to a slow start. The massive trough out west in December ruined what looked like a good pattern, but that looks to be changing soon.

I think we’re gonna get one of the 2 Friday or Sunday. Then there will be even more threats after that, this pattern is really good.

The Canadian has a Miller B on Sunday, I still think that’s the bigger threat but I’m starting to be more optimistic about the Friday one as well. The Navy is pretty far NW with that one, and that is a huge red flag because the Navy is known for having a SE bias. Id like to see the Euro and Canadian get on board for that as well before I go all in, but it’s worth keeping an eye on.

The euro op run was too far south, but it had a big storm which is nice to see this far out, the details can be worked out later. The ensembles improved and look better for our area, the mean at 180 hours is around 4 inches. Considering it has the Thursday storm whiff, that’s all next weekend. A mean of 4 inches that far out for 1 storm is huge. There are a decent amount of close misses on the indies, but several with massive blizzards.

an interesting thing I noticed was the catalyst for this upcoming pattern appears to be a really good pacific and occasional blocking but nothing crazy. The NAO may actually average slightly positive for the month, unlike say a 2009-2010 pattern. With how good the pacific looks to be I’m thinking this could actually be good, in that it prevents suppression, leading to a pattern that is better for us than the mid Atlantic like 2014-2015.

Wow that’s a bomb alright

I’m higher on the Sunday/Monday one because it’s a Miller B and the Thursday/Friday one is a Miller A that originates 100 miles se of the Carolina coast. It could hook back in and whack us, but based on how the pattern looks on the guidance I think it’s going to slip south. The Sunday/Monday one on the other hand….

Euro whiffs for the Friday storm but it looks like it’s trying for a Miller B with the next shortwave at hour 144.