George001

Elevated areas are getting hammered, but if things come together a changeover to several hours of heavy snow right to the cape cannot be ruled out. Understandably, most TV Mets aren’t calling for big totals in eastern mass yet but they did warn that it’s possible and it wouldn’t take a huge shift for that to happen (low needs to be a bit farther south and east, low over Worcester is no good for us in eastern mass, though your area should still get a lot). In my opinion it’s worth keeping an eye on even for as far SE as James, if everything breaks right even he might get a few inches (lower probability of course, but not impossible).

Correct

My top analogs for this storm: 1. April 1st 1997 2. March 8th 2013 3. Early Dec 2019 4. Feb 2 2021 I have them weighted 50/35/10/5 for 1, 2, 3 and 4 respectively. I’ve been big on the April 1st 1997 analog since I looked at the models a couple of days ago (hence the aggressive forecast), but looking at how the low just sits and stalls with a west to east fetch of Atlantic moisture being rammed into a cold airmass, producing insane QPF totals (2-3+ inches of liquid in some areas), I also like March 8 2013 as an analog.

The low just sits like 10-20 miles se of Nantucket for 12+ hours

It’s snowing right to the cape at hour 42 lol

I hacked the nam

Do you guys think my area has a shot of maybe getting half of the low end of my forecast? I am still holding out hope that things break right but going to need the euro to jump on board soon or im going to start losing confidence SE of 95 zones (including my area).

April 1st 1997.... enjoy your 30 inches, I’ll enjoy my 20.

CNE/NNE is looking really good for this one

At this point while I am almost as bullish on this stock as I am in my GME shares, I highly doubt after this storm we get another flake of snow. I honestly didn’t think we would even have a shot. I had already moved on from winter and storm tracking until I heard the local weatherman say the word “snow”, that’s when I decided to look and I liked what I saw. The low on the Canadian and Euro looks to take a track from roughly block island to right over the canal, and stalls there (euro a bit more inland, more like 10 mi se of my house). I would typically lean against big snows this time of the year since we are a month into spring, but the amount of cold air available in the upper levels, the dynamics, the amplified nature of the flow, and the strength of the low scream big storm. There’s going to likely be over 2 inches of QPF in all of Mass, with jackpots of 3+ inches. If this were even late March there would likely be winter storm warnings and blizzard watches up in all of Mass right now. While the low track isn’t perfect, it’s only like 30-40 miles too NW of ideal and is rapidly bombing out and stalling. However due to it being mid April things are more complicated with high bust potential both high and low. When I first gave my forecast, it (understandably) got a lot of flak due to my previous failed forecasts as well as it being mid April. Now it’s not looking so crazy though, especially in the elevations. My area and se we are going to need some more help, but it wouldn’t take much to get us in on the fun too (maybe 10-20 miles south with the low).

Either way that’s snow right to the cape, the 0 line is 300 miles SE of Nantucket. North is not necessarily bad, as the models with a more tucked in and north low have stronger dynamics as well, so you get a stronger clash of warming Atlantic air vs cold Canadian air being drawn in via a rapidly bombing low. The real issue here is it’s the NAM outside 24 hours and is likely wrong. A euro solution makes more sense to me.

The navy and nam (I know it’s not accurate outside 24 hours) not only support the idea of major snow but if they nail this my forecast would bust LOW. I would like to see the Euro and Canadian jump on board but considering that no model had anything near the snow output of my forecast when I made it, it is nice to see models moving in that direction. Too bad the nam is garbage this far out, if anything my forecast would bust low based on the dynamics and upper levels if that model were to be taken vertabraim. I’m going to stick with my euro/Canadian/navy blend for now, which does support the lower end of my forecast (the se of i95 totals would need to be trimmed down though). The snow maps disagree but those don’t matter, what matters is the jet dynamics, the location and strength of the low, the upper level temp profile, and the 500 millibar low (which is rapidly strengthening and stalling right over the cape). R/S lines will be an issue with this storm and it will be a very tricky forecast, but based on what I see on the latest models I don’t see any reason to lower my amounts (I do believe the models will correct south with the r/s line based on what I am seeing, I believe it will wobble from the cape to south shore area, with even those areas going over to snow at the height of the storm. Everyone will start as rain though).

My forecast has not changed much, though the models have trended a bit north overnight so I might need to lower totals a bit on the cape and south shore. Still looking good though for a foot+ BOS-PVD corridor with more to the NW, with the south shore and cape being more uncertain. I could realistically see anything from just cold rain down there to 6-12 inches of heavy wet snow, right now I’m leaning 3-6 south shore and 1-3 cape, lower than my earlier forecast due to the shift north on the models. This forecast assumes the shift north will end and correct back south, likely somewhere in between today’s runs and yesterday’s.

I disagree. I agree that western and Central Mass are going to get more, but Eastern Mass is good for at least a foot or so, probably more. This is a big storm and despite the calendar, there appears to be plenty of cold air as well, that’s why I am going so aggressive.

when the upper levels are all below freezing and you have a slow moving bomb rotting underneath LI that screams overperformer. I can understand why many of you doubt my forecast (my forecasts haven’t been the best during the winter), but the signs are there. Hopefully my first spring forecast is better.

The navy in particular has the 540 line se of most of the region (besides the cape) for 24 hours, with 18 hours being heavy precip.

I just checked the models and based on what I am seeing it appears a low is going to be developing underneath Long Island and undergo rapid cyclogenesis, developing into a monster ocean low reminiscent of April 1st 1997. It is later in April, but the low appears to strengthen so drastically on the Euro and Navy that it dynamically cools the atmosphere and changes the rain over to heavy snow and blizzard conditions. The models aren’t showing it with the snow map algorithms, but based on the upper levels of the atmosphere as well as the strength of the low, the models support mostly snow after starting as rain. The upper levels are well below freezing with a low rapidly strengthening after transferring under LI, which screams blizzard not only in the berkshires but right down to the south shore and possibly even the cape. Based on the Canadian, which is the lower envelope of guidance in terms of snow potential, approximately .5 of liquid falls as rain before the upper levels dynamically cool enough to support snow, and from that point to the end of the storm approximately 1 in of qpf falls, which translates to roughly 6-8 inches in the lower elevations with 12+ in the higher elevations (due to ratios). This is the LOW end. If you look at the navy or euro, the low develops earlier, strengthens more, and brings in more cold air which lead to not only increased QPF but higher ratios, so it supports 30+ in the higher terrain with 18-24+ right down to the south shore. In this type of early spring nor’easter threat, the snow map algorithms are useless. The upper levels and dynamics tell a different story than the 10:1 snow maps as well as the surface maps. My official forecast is a blend of the euro, navy and Canadian: Worcester Hills and Berkshires: 20-30 inches, iso 40 I95 corridor: 15-25 inches, iso 30 south shore: 8-16 inches, iso 20 cape: 6-12 inches, iso 15

The Charles river is great for bass fishing the bass are huge and there are tons of them. I also like hale reservation.

Yeah if we get a moderate the hope is for 02-03, that was a good winter. 86-87 and 87-88 were average to slightly above avg. the issue is with moderate ninos that’s about as good as it gets, you don’t see any moderate nino epic 80+ inch winters with multiple blizzards, sustained cold, and snowpack here. Weak nino and it’s a different story (1977-1978, 2004-2005, 2014-2015). Moderate or stronger ninos tend to have the storm track too far south with DC getting hammered and NYC north getting screwed. There is a huge difference between weak and mod nino, with average snowfall in the Boston area for a weak nino being 55.7 inches (well above avg), and 37.6 inches for a moderate nino (below avg). To put things into perspective these are the enso states ranked from best to worst for snow in the Boston area: Weak nino, weak Nina, neutral, mod Nina, strong Nina, mod nino, strong nino. The difference between a weak nino and a moderate nino is on average 18.1 inches of snow, the and is the difference between the best enso state and the second worst. This is more of a personal preference thing but moderate and strong ninos tend to have one big one and that’s it (maybe 2 in the better big nino years). Also they tend to be milder with poor snowpack retention. Big ninas on the other hand you are less likely to get a big one but your more likely to get multiple moderate ones (6-12 inches) with a better chance at getting sustained snowpack and cold stretches. For me though, if I had to choose between a 1.2 degree Celsius nino and a -5 degree Celsius Nina, I’ll take the strongest Nina on record any day. I have to admit though, before I looked at the data I expected the avg snowfall for strong ninos to be like 20 inches and mod ninos like 25 so while it’s bad it’s not as bad as I expected, so instead of being something that overwhelms all other factors I might just weight it like 20% (if it’s moderate) in my winter forecast.

I hope he’s wrong, moderate nino favors below avg snow here, above avg snow DC. Nino is only good if it’s weak (like 2015).

Based on what I have seen in my own backyard over the past 10 years, the higher end climate change projections could very much be underestimating the speed of climate change. I’m not the most knowledgeable about meteorology but looking at the data of our monthly temps with respect to average over the past 10 years something seems off. We have had 6 straight winters with above average temps, with temps soaring into the high 70s as early as mid to late feb multiple times in the past couple of years (this year it waited until early-mid March). I have never seen anything like it until a few years ago, yet since I first saw it a few years ago it seems that we have been getting a stretch of mid-high 70s every winter. To me that is a red flag that indicates that climate change is not only happening, but accelerating rapidly. Hopefully as a society we decide to look at climate change at something that is imminent and one of the greatest threats to mankind, not something to put on the backburner in favor of other issues.

Yeah winters as we know them to be are going to be a thing of the past eventually so I plan on making the best of the winters we have left, by enjoying and tracking every last blizzard until that happens.

I have a couple of questions for those who are more knowledgeable about enso stuff than I am. Historically what have the following Summers, falls and winters looked like in terms of Enso with rapid development of warmth in the subsurface developing in the spring after a mod/strong La Niña winter? Also how significant is this, It seems like it is at least somewhat significant but I’m not really sure what strength El Niño it is signaling could surface in the future.

Over the past couple of weeks the subsurface temps several hundred meters below the surface of the enso region have drastically increased. The subsurface temps have risen from -1 degrees Celsius in mid Feb to .5 degrees celsius now. The Nina is still there at the surface, but it appears that the warmth is both rising and moving east to engulf not only region 4 but 3.4 and 3 as well. There is a lag period due to the time it takes for the warmth to surface, but it appears that it will surface and could potentially lead to the development of El Niño conditions by summer.

I thought for sure we would get 3 blizzards, but there were a couple of major flaws in my analysis of the models. I overestimated how good the pattern was and underestimated the influence of climo. I’m convinced my epic feb forecast wasn’t terrible as we did have below normal temps and above normal snow for the month, but good ol bad luck screwed us. As a snow weenie I would take the pattern we got in feb and gladly run it back every year, as I strongly believe that 9/10 times that pattern delivers 30-40+ inches of snow in the Boston area in Feb alone. Where I live we got close to that in Feb, and I’m only like 45 min away from Boston. Now my March forecast was as horrible as it gets, the pattern that took hold was the opposite of what I expected (though the first week we had one good opportunity, just got unlucky with the PV being in the worst possible spot to squash the low despite the flow not being fast, a strong northern steam, and strong southern stream. Just didn’t work out). I expected March to end up being a Feb 2015 redux, and it was a March 2012 redux so that’s as bad of a forecast as it gets.