George001

Guidance supports more than the QPF maps indicate. I’m no met either, but from what I have read the surface is also not supported by obs, the low is more west and is deepening more than expected. I mean look at this, the 12z euro which is “bad” qpf wise has 3 CLOSED CONTOURS off the cape. Bernie Rayno said on his livestream that a good rule of thumb is 1 foot of snow for each closed contour. It starts closing off south of Long Island and continues to deepen.

If he’s still in, I’m still in. Models are easy to ignore when the obs suggest they are wrong (at least the QPF outputs and snow maps, the 500 mb looks better).

Gfs, rgem and all the other shitty models that rob the convection tossed imo. They are all east of the Navy, and obs indicate the low is deepening faster than expected. TV Mets still have my area getting 18-24 and some have my area getting 24+.

Interesting, the low is now down to 1006mb, 2mb deeper than the 18z nam had at this time (had the low down to 1008mb). The low is also less elongated.

Looks like a good middle ground between that crazy NAM run last night that gave NYC like 30 inches and the 12z Euro

And just as I make a big post about the 12z Navy, the Nam comes west again. I like the way things are going.

LETS ****ING GO!!!! NAVY ON BOARD!!!! No dual low on the navy and it deepens the low to 972 mb, this is a huge red flag and should not be ignored. The Navy gets a lot of shit, but it’s a useful model even if it’s verification scores aren’t the highest. The way I use the Navy is I don’t just look at it and assume it’s 100% right, because it usually isn’t (I have made this mistake before early on, but after a few horrible busts I learned my lesson). My rule of thumb with the Navy is that if it is farther west than other guidance, I throw all guidance east of the Navy out the window. I first heard of this rule a couple years ago back when I was still an anonymous lurker, and it seems to work well for the most part. When incorporating the Navy into my forecasts, I blend it with other guidance that is farther west, so for me I’m blending it with the 6z Euro (12z thrown out the window because it’s weaker and east of the Navy), 12z Nam, 12z Canadian, and a give a bit of weight to the short range RAP and SREFS. Since the Navy is so far west, I see that as a huge red flag and am giving more weight to the western guidance like the (high res) Nam, Srefs, and 6z Euro. Am I being a weenie? Maybe a little bit, but the Navy jumped west for the mid Jan inland runner like 3-4 days out, and once that happened I adjusted my forecast and gave up hope for anything more than a couple inches before a changeover to rain in my area.

It will likely verify but a lot of posters here are farther west. In eastern mass we are good for 2ft even on the more east models.

The models did a great job in the long and medium range sniffing out the threat, but have struggled with the details.

I don’t know if this means anything, but there is a 1010mb low off the coast of florida right now, and the 12z euro didn’t take the low down to 1010mb until 7pm (6 hours after it ran). Could this mean the low is deepening more than expected?

Knock it all you want but if the eastern low doesn’t form, it could end up being right.

My forecast is this map, but add half a foot to these totals.

I think this guy has the right idea.

I’m not really buying that the eastern low will ruin the storm, even if it is real. During the early Jan nor’easter a lot of the models had like 4-6 inches of snow in eastern mass and many areas got 8-12+, despite the models having the right idea about the eastern low.

March 2018 and 2013 say otherwise, March is a winter month.

There’s a big ridge in the east but a very strong high to the north on the models next week. Ice storm?

Nope we still have 2 months left, yeah it’s gonna melt some next week but the long range models are indicating the warm up will be only a few days long, and then we reload this pattern we are in now with a big ridge out west. Winter isn’t anywhere near over, I strongly believe that there will be multiple blizzards this year. I agree this will be the storm of the year though, and likely the storm of the decade as well.

euro gives me over 40 inches of snow, it somehow improved from 18z!

I wonder if even the kuchera maps are underestimating the snow ratios with this storm like they did with the early Jan nor’easter. If areas in the heaviest banding end up with like 20:1 ratios, we might see someone get over 50 inches.

I got a bit nervous when i realized it was a Miller A and not a Miller B, but then I saw the Euro give me 30+ inches several runs in a row.

Blue Hill, MA. 48”

Yep I like the way this is going. If I get screwed and end up in between the best bands, if the nam is right I would get 20 inches instead of 30+. That’s still a huge storm.

Temps are in the teens and 20s. In my opinion, even if the low went inland and crossed over like Worcester or something it would still snow in eastern mass due to the cold and strength of the low. It can snow east of the low, it’s not common but it does happen sometimes.

I am personally rooting for those 2 bands to combine and form one mega band right over the Foxboro area.

Nearly 4 inches of QPF on the cape… imagine if it came like 20-30 miles west, then we might start seeing 50s and 60s on the kuchera maps