George001

With a low that strong it could easily still produce even if the low is a bit offshore. March 13th 2018 was a similar setup with a late phase, and the low was in the 970s and about 200 mi se of cape cod. Normally this is too far offshore to produce a huge blizzard. However, in this case the storm was so big that despite being far offshore the precip shield was extremely expansive and we ended up getting a massive blizzard in eastern mass anyways. In my opinion even those 975mb lows would produce due to how big the precip shield will be. That said, the 956mb low over Nantucket would be a historic blizzard, it would likely rival feb 1978 in terms of snow amounts (I’m not calling for that though, pattern supports something more offshore than that).

Yeah yesterday is when they started seeing the low. The Canadian went from way offshore to a blizzard in one run before moving back south some. The risk with this storm is definitely it develops too late and misses everyone, but I like where I’m at with this setup. Eastern New England has a better shot in these types of setups with us having a bit more room for error in regards to how late the storm develops.

The pattern supports a farther west low. At least the models have a low now, just a few days ago they didn’t even have a low. Both the OP runs and ensembles show a whiff but they aren’t far off from something big.

When I look at the setup for this storm I’m thinking a possible March 13th 2018 redux (2 feet of snow, 30 inches in jackpot areas) that was also a later phase that was originally modeled to be out to sea until a couple days before the storm, when the models started bringing the low farther west. When it comes to miller As, in eastern mass my worry is low tracking to far west and bringing rain. However, I don’t see that on the models with the placement of the ridge favoring a more offshore vs inland track of the low. The models have the ridge over Montana, which is great to have if you are looking for east coast cyclogenesis. In my opinion jackpot amounts could exceed 30 inches if things come together. This is the type of pattern that produced March 13th 2018, Jan 4th 2018, Dec 26th 2010, Feb 14th 2015 storms.

Not far from an eastern New England blizzard, all it would take is the northern stream to dive in a bit earlier. That’s not a weak low either despite the late phase. If we can get an earlier phase not only would the low be farther west, the strength of the low would increase as well. A low in the 970s or even 960s isn’t out of the question in a pattern like this.

When looking at the eps for the March 5th-10 timeframe, there is a huge ridge right over Montana, and a piece of the polar vortex in eastern Canada. Based on how amplified and far west that ridge is on the EPS mean as well as the location of the polar vortex at hour 168, I believe that the overall flow will be slow and amplified, increasing the ceiling of the storm. A big one with 2ft+ is absolutely in the cards and has a higher probability than normal based on the pattern in place. The flow on the models is NOT fast like it has been the past few years, and the pac is the best since 2018 during that window. The models do break it down and revert to a fast flow look afterwards with the polar vortex in the North Pole, which would mean the end of winter. However, I made the mistake of cancelling winter 10 days ago when I saw the models had that look for early March, and it turned out to be wrong. I’m not going to make that same mistake again, based on what I have seen in regards to the tropical forcing (MJO), it looks to enter the more favorable phases for western North America ridging, which in turn buckles and slows down the flow, giving the northern stream more room to dig and phase with the southern stream. On some of the more recent model runs the MJO looks to linger in the more favorable phases, which could extend the favorable window for possibly 2 or even 3 more weeks if it cooperates. Im not going to go back and start calling for March 18 just yet though, as be fair the tropical forcing so far this year hasn’t favored a good pacific pattern, so I’m going to be cautious about forecasting a great period after the first week of March. If the MJO does cooperate though, watch out, this March could all of a sudden go from looking like a blowtorch with a PV over the North Pole from weeks 2-4 to very interesting. even if the MJO doesn’t pan out, I could see a scenario where we do get a warm March but with the storm threat at the beginning of the month and maybe one or two more windows with pieces of the Polar Vortex rotating through. That isn’t March 2018 but it’s not March 2012 either, its more in the middle, and in New England an a medicore to even a slightly below average pattern can still produce.

Yeah I don’t know why this period is being written off. It’s a legitimate threat that is supported by the pattern, and it’s not like climo is super unfavorable either. It’s early March, which can and does produce winter weather as long as the pattern in place isn’t extremely hostile.

I just looked at the models and out of nowhere, they now have a low! Is this pattern March 2018 good? No, the models don’t show that yet. However, the pattern does look more favorable for major east coast cyclogenesis than a typical March pattern. The pattern quickly becomes more amplified towards the March 5th- March 10th time frame, which gives the northern branch more room to dig and phase with the southern branch, allowing for east cyclogenesis to occur. The models were not showing this yesterday, but on today’s run of the Canadian it shows exactly this, the amplified flow allows for the northern branch to dig and phase with the southern branch off the Jersey coast. As the energy transfers off the jersey coast, this phasing of energy allows for the storm to not only bomb out, but it also closes off and slows down, which leads to a slow moving Miller b blizzard in eastern mass. In my opinion this is a highly plausible solution based on the pattern in place, and cannot be discounted.

I’m up to 16 buns now lol

I disagree, at least for east coast storms the Canadian is one of the best OP models, up there with the Euro and Navy. The Gfs and Icon are the garbage models not worth looking at.

Yep, this run the timing is off, but if we can get just a bit more northern stream interaction that will help with the cold air, increase the strength of the low, and bring it farther west. On this run it’s mostly southern stream until a tiny piece of energy from the northern branch phases in last min. All it takes is a small increase in strength as well as a slightly farther south dig from the northern branch and things get very interesting.

I thought the models were trending in the right direction with the fast flow issue going away and the pieces of the polar vortex breaking off and delivering cold shots to the east. I know the models don’t show anything but I would rather see a good pattern on the models with no low than a garbage pattern with a low. Get the pattern first and the lows will sometimes pop up sometimes out of nowhere.

It’s understandable why you thought it was over, I did too, I even made a post ending winter. However the latest guidance is showing a pattern favorable for intense cyclogenesis starting as far south as the Carolina coast. With a more amplified flow, there is more room for the northern branch and the southern branch of the jet stream to phase. In the pattern the EPS is showing past March 5th, there isn’t energy crashing into the west coast flattening the flow, which would give the northern branch of the jet stream to dig farther south, phase with the southern branch, tilt negatively and come up the coast. When you get a pattern like that especially in March with the enhanced thermal gradient, watch out for extreme cyclogenesis (a good example of this is March 1993).

Is this just me being a weenie looking at the maps through snow goggles, or does the EPS actually look decent for the March 5th-8th timeframe for a storm potential? I may have given up on winter too soon, during that time frame on the EPS it shows a more amplified flow. It has a big ridge on the west coast instead of the east, and due to the amplified flow that doesn’t roll east and bring warm pacific air with it. Instead, as the EPS approaches the March 8th timeframe, the amplified flow allows cold air to filter into the eastern US straight from Canada, with the freezing line at the upper levels getting as far south as North Carolina. That’s not pacific air, that air is coming straight from the North Pole. While there will be a big warm up in early March with a ridge in the east and the polar vortex over the North Pole, the models are now breaking a piece of the polar vortex off which delivers a blast of cold air. Unlike last week where it looked like the vortex was going to sit in the North Pole for all of March, it looks like the polar vortex might cooperate after all. Yes, the EPS doesn’t actually show a storm during that timeframe, but it shows a great pattern that must be watched for a potential late season blizzard with possibly even more threats behind it if the pattern sets in before we warm up for good. This pattern really excites me, when I see pieces of the polar vortex breaking off and moving into eastern Canada like that instead of sitting at the North Pole, it makes me think cold air will not be a huge issue. When you combine this more favorable polar vortex development with a more cooperative pacific, allowing the flow to amplify and slow down, this indicates increased chances of a slow moving blizzard that undergoes cyclogenesis, fueled by the clash of the polar vortex induced cold with the warmer March waters in the gulf and off the southeast coast. Could this lead to Miller As track over us, crush more western areas with a massive blizzard while it rains in eastern mass? Yeah, ptype issues is definitely a risk, especially with the clash of Arctic and tropical air occurring as off the Carolinas. Cyclogenesis that occurs this early and far south while great for a monster sub 970 mb low also brings the risk of the low tucking in to much and raining over eastern Mass. At least the pattern is favorable, and compared to how things looked a week ago, that’s all I can ask for.

this map is more let’s make a run at 70s and 80s than snow.

Yeah I see where I went wrong now, the higher MEI values were in April, up from -.8 in March. Going by MEI that Nina was weak, ONI it was weak borderline moderate during the WINTER of 2018 lol

It has -1.29 as the peak on both your chart and this one, though it peaked in March/April.

The winter of 2017-2018 was actually a moderate La Niña, it peaked at -1.0 degrees Celsius going by ONI, and -1.3 degrees celcius going by MEI. By MEI the 2017-2018 La Niña was actually high end moderate, borderline strong.

2014-2015 is the best winter I have ever seen in my life. Tons of Miller B blizzards. However the polar vortex was more elongated into Canada that year. This March on the models the polar vortex isn’t only over the North Pole but it’s strong and consolidated, which is more like 2011-2012 and last years pattern. That’s a cancel winter pattern.

Unfortunately it does. It looked great on the models a couple of weeks but then the models started breaking the pattern down and consolidating the polar vortex over the North Pole.

I don’t buy the upcoming storm being wintry at all. The polar vortex is over the North Pole which won’t allow cold air to come in and give us a huge blizzard. That storm on the european guidance looks like its rain even into the mountains in VT/NH/ME. A polar vortex over the North Pole is the type of atmospheric driver that dominates the pattern, and as long as it’s there it’s nearly impossible to get a winter storm in the east.

2010-2011 is the strong Nina on record going by MEI, so I would count it as a super Nina. Your other points are valid though, I focus too much on my backyard rather than the actual pattern in place when drawing my conclusions which is flawed logic. I’ll concede I was wrong about super ninas favoring more huge events than strong ninos, however I still would rather have a strong Nina. I would rather have a bunch of 6-12 type storms with cold nearby than have a super mild and snowless winter with one 2 footer that melts in 2 days.

1997-1998 and 2015-2016 were garbage here with no big ones (18+) in New England (2016 missed to the south as is typical with strong ninos) only 1982-1983 had a massive blizzard in New England. Last 3 super Nina seasons 2010-2011 3 massive blizzards bringing 18+ inches to areas of the region with several smaller events on top of that 2007-2008 no bigger storms, a bunch of 6-12 type storms. 1999-2000- garbage. Conclusion: last 3 big ninas, 3 big ones. Last 3 big ninos, one big one. Big ninas are more favorable for big ones in New England than big ninos. In the Mid Atlantic, big ninos are much more favorable for big ones.

Another reason why big ninos suck is not only do they screw us that year, but for the next several years until we cool off the ocean. Not saying it’s the Nina that does this, as that idea I had has been refuted, but maybe the atmosphere drivers that allow a big Nina to form cools off the ocean as well. Regardless, if we want pac help in the following years it would make sense to root for a big Nina. For example look at the big nino in 2009-2010. After that winter, we didn’t get a really favorable pac until 2013 (even the epic winter of 2010-2011 was mostly Atlantic driven). After the big Nina in 2010-2011, we had one garbage pac winter follow, then 3 consecutive great pac winters until the super nino in 2016. I strongly believe that the super nino of 2016 screwed us in the following winters as well and is why we haven’t had any pacific help since the epic 2014-2015 winter. If we had a big nina earlier like the year right after I don’t think we would have been stuck in pac hell for 5 straight years, but it would have been more like 2-3 years. Since we didn’t get any help to cool off the ocean there isn’t anything to stop the flow from getting flatter and mild air from flooding the country.

This is a quote taken from the mid Atlantic board. It seems to indicate that my previous idea of the pacific being on fire destroying our winter in the east has some merit. It also gives merit to my idea of strong ninas being necessary to cool off the ocean, otherwise the jet energy coming off from the pacific will intensify so much that it will overwhelm the pattern. It would both flood the country with warmth and flatten the flow. The strong nino in 2016 screwed us not only that winter but for the next several years as well, with there being only a few good periods (during ninas) in a period of warmth. “Solar has been way, way off. That last cycle was weak(as predicted due to the sun going so quiet around 2010 I think). That definitely coincides with a lack of moderate/strong La Ninas. I always think moderate to strong La Ninas reset the temp gradient in the equatorial Pacific. For those of you who don't know what I am speaking of(I know Tellico does), we are used to weak El Ninos being great winter weather signals. However, for the El Nino to be a strong winter wx signal in the East, the Sea Surface Temps(SSTs) need to be colder in the places which are not part of the El Nino. The stronger that tempdifferential(the gradient) between the Nino and the rest of thePacific, the more likely the El Nino behaves as normal. With SSTs above normal in much of the Pac for the past 4-5 years, the Nino climatology was been washed out. I am hoping that this La Nina will allow the next Nino to have a stronger gradient and behave more as a Nino would. As Tellico notes, all of this is likely tied together. And again, the AMO cycle is only about 2/3 of the way through - maybe it will end early? I do hold out hope that this year's unexpected -NAO cycle this winter might well be a harbinger of better winters to come.”