George001
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Everything posted by George001
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I don’t remember seeing the long range ever looking this good last year
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I’m not a gfs guy, but the other guidance has a similar look (maybe a bit less blocking, which is fine). I haven’t seen a look this good on guidance since March 2018, and us having a moderate snowstorm on our doorstep makes me optimistic that this pattern is for real and not a model hallucination.
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This is looking to be a decent storm, and then a possible big one mid Jan. This is only the beginning of all hell breaking loose based on what the guidance shows. Jan 2011, March 2018, and dare I say it, Feb 2015. The pattern looks that good for mid month, and I’m all in. -
I hope so, I was forecasted to get like 2-4 and ended up with a foot that storm.
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Not a fan of the latest european guidance. Hopefully just a blip run
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The long range looks really good, ridging out west and there are signs on some of the guidance that the north atlantic blocking comes back mid month.
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In my area the Canadian and RGEM are already nearly at the low end of that, if we get a 50 mile tick NW with the low on all guidance that would make a huge difference. That’s what I’m banking on.
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For what it’s worth, the navy has been moving NW quite a bit the past couple of runs. I like what I’m seeing from the big 3 (Euro, Canadian, Navy). My original thoughts have not changed, widespread 8-12 with an iso 12-16, as I believe the models are struggling with chasing convection and are placing the low too far se and are too weak with it as a result.
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The Canadian is a great model, this matters in my opinion.
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The Canadian made a massive shift west!!!!!! LETS ****ING GO!
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Im interested to see what the Canadian looks like
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It is, but it came west at 18z. Still needs improvements though.
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The eps came west last run, but it’s important to note there were 2 camps, 1 was the stronger solutions with a farther west track (mixing would be the concern) and another with father east, weaker solutions (low strength would be the concern).
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I’m discounting every piece of guidance that shows a weaker solution because it doesn’t make sense with a shortwave that powerful and negatively tilted. disgusting, makes me sick! I hope they discontinue that piece of shit model!
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I’m still more worried about mixing than the weaker solutions verifying.
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….yeah it’s weaker, but the run had major initialization issues and is struggling with the pattern.
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That ****ing sucks. Hate to see it, I think it had initialization issues though.
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I don’t think it’s weaker, just a little slower to develop. Looks like the shortwave holds back a bit more than last run, and the storm starts bombing out later. This gives it the appearance of being weaker, but it holding back more wouldn’t it be a good thing because of better wave spacing? I think it’s going to recover and end up farther west and stronger than last run.
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The guidance looked good for 6-12 with potential for more if things broke right a couple days ago, nothing wrong with 3-6 but when taking into account how good things looked a couple days ago it would be a bit of a let down. For me it’s all about expectations, if I’m expecting 1-2 and get 3-6 I’m very happy with it, if I expect 6-12 and get 3-6 it’s a big disappointment. I am holding out hope that it comes back west.
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My forecast: 8–12 in all of eastern mass with an isolated 12-15 in heaviest banding. The higher end will probably be NW up into central and northern Mass, lower end in my area. In my opinion the models are underestimating the strength of the low.
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The shortwave is way too powerful and goes negatively tilted too early for the weaker solutions to even be a concern.
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What about my area?
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The gfs is such a terrible model, it moved like 500 miles NW with the low in 2 cycles less than 100 hours out. The European and Canadian guidance have shifted some but they always were farther west, ranging from between over se mass to just inside the benchmark.
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2014-2015 and 2012-2013 were 2 really good winters that started slow. In 2014-2015, we didn’t have anything big until the Miller B blizzard late January that gave eastern mass 2 feet of snow. Then we got a few more severe blizzards in Feb.
