George001

It is when it shifts 50 miles east in one run 2 days out. My forecast was based on a combination of the jet dynamics, upper level temps, and the storm track being a blend of the euro Canadian and navy. I also used the atmospheric drivers such as La Niña and polar vortex to assess what the fail risk is. With a strong southeast ridge in play and energy fairly far west, I believed the risk was storm would trend so far north we rain, which is why I didn’t buy into those all snow solutions Monday. Everything I looked at screamed overperformer, especially being a bit south with the pattern in place giving us room for some North ticks. It just doesn’t make sense that in a strong La Niña with a southeast ridge and energy amplifying to the west that we miss to the south. That’s why I was so aggressive with my forecast, like with other storms such as the feb 1-2 one I know why I busted (called for 2 ft in Bos, underestimated the well above avg ocean temps making it easy for mild air to come in and worsen the snow ratios as well as change precip to rain). For this one? I have no idea where I went wrong. Everything I looked at, and still everything I am looking at screams overperformer.

Giving up when there is 4-6 weeks left is a mistake, when we are buried under feet of snow mid March those who are canceling winter will realize it was a big mistake to do that when the polar vortex was close by and the pacific isn’t dominating the pattern like previous years (due to La Niña cooling it off). The signs for an epic March are there, look at what’s happening in Texas right now. The fact that arctic air is able to get that far South says something about the pattern we are in, and it says that zonal nonsense some of the models are spitting out in the long range is likely BS. The models have been saying that feb would suck in mid jan, then it moved back to mid feb would suck, now it has been moved back to it will suck in March. The atmospheric drivers do not support a zonal pattern this year, which is why they keep pushing it back. Just like how last year the models kept having a great pattern ahead but moved it back because the atmospheric drivers supported a mild and zonal pattern.

Yeah, that’s not a good run at all. It went way east with the low which I did not expect it to do, I’ll give it another run but I’m starting to think I’m going to bust. That’s too bad, the models looked good as they were last night, I don’t know why they shifted 50 miles east but they did, and that destroys my entire forecast. It’s still close but what a terrible performance by the models making that big of a shift this close in.

Idk what eastern mass posters are whining about, we got a foot or close to it Superbowl Sunday and another major storm coming Friday. Yeah we kinda got screwed in the Feb 1-2 storm but this winter has been way better than the last 2 and way better than the majority of forecasts called for. Things looked really bad in November with the polar vortex parked over the North Pole and mild pacific air flooding the country. If you told me we would get the winter we got in early November with how things looked I wouldn’t have believed it for a second, I would have thought you were wishcasting. This winter has already overperformed in regards to seasonal expectations so I’m happy with it.

Yeah we have about 4-6 weeks left but it can snow quite a bit in 4-6 weeks.

I’m not expecting a blizzard, more sustained mod snow for 30 hours or so. However the latest run of the navy was more south though so I have to admit that is a red flag. I’m still waiting to see if it was just an off run or a trend before I get too concerned though, that is a fair point though about the navy not looking great. As a forecaster I want to try to be more accurate and avoid those crazy 3-4 feet snow calls that amount to nothing, so even if the models aren’t showing what I want to see I’m not just going to discount them. Blending the navy euro and Canadian still looks good for my idea of a 16-20 jackpot with most areas getting 12-15 when taking ratios into account so I’m going to stick with it, but I would like to see the navy come back north next run.

I did, I looked at the upper levels on the models instead of just using surface temps and they seem to support my idea of higher ratio snow like the Superbowl Sunday storm.

Miller b

I’m definitely a huge weenie but in my opinion James has earned the #1 spot with his 40 inch forecasts for cape cod and his book. I’m planning on buying a copy. Though on the other form I did call for 3-4 feet for the Jan 29th threat that ended up going out to sea, that ended up being a huge bust.

I use a 60/25/15 euro Canadian navy blend. I completely ignore the 10:1 snowfall maps when making my forecast, I am looking at things like jet dynamics, temps in the upper levels, ect. To me everything is screaming high ratio overperformer, Imo the euro evolution would get most areas to the lower end of my forecast, with the Canadian getting most areas to the higher end.

20

It took me 2 weeks. They said I wasn’t learning but I disagree. When I first joined that forum I didn’t even know what a La Niña was and now I know what La Niña, El Niño, and even the polar vortex are.

Triple that and you got my forecast.

I’m forecasting 16-20 for your area

I strongly agree. All of mass and parts of NH/VT/ME are getting hammered.

There are 2-3 lows with this storm, so even if the 1st mostly hits areas to the SW we could still get hit by the next low.

Where did James go? When I used to lurk here I enjoyed reading his forecasts even if they were often way too high on the cape. I remember in one of the blizzards during that epic March a few years ago James forecasted 40+ for the cape.

I would take that and run, 0 complaints with that solution.

Yep I absolutely am. I don’t buy the se trend at all due to the se ridge and the strength of the La Niña. As is even if we only got .50-.75 in liquid like many models are saying that would pile up fast due to the the cold upper levels of the atmosphere increasing the snow ratios. Dynamics will not be a problem with a massive amount of jet energy ramming well inland reminiscent of the Superbowl Sunday storm. In that storm my area got approximately .5 liquid equivalent and a foot of snow, meaning the models weren’t even wrong with the precip, the snow output busted because the ratios were more like 20-25:1 rather than 10:1. I expect the models to correct back NW, not a lot, but just enough to get heavy snows back into Worcester and even western mass. 16-20 jackpot isn’t a huge stretch considering when accounting for ratios we would probably be getting around 12-15 anyways if that nam run came to verify. I love where we are right now for the Friday storm, I am much more confident than I was a few days out when the gfs was snowing a snowstorm but the other models were showing snow to mix. In this pattern, the risk is rain like we got today not a miss to the south.

In my opinion we will see around quadruple those numbers, euro isn’t by any means bad (it has 6-8 inches using kuchera which I think is underdone looking at the dynamics and temps), Canadian is extremely close to blizzard conditions in eastern mass, and the navy has over 30 hours of snow.

I stand corrected, the 240 hours looks good but when rolled forward the european guidance seems to want to end the good pattern and go nuts with the se ridge. Do you have the map for the upper latitudes as well? The location of the polar vortex is key to whether this is just a quick warmup or an early spring. I thought for sure that 240 hour look would get even better as we went into early March.

I have a question in regards to enso state and how favorable each enso state is for snowfall. I know the mid Atlantic prefers moderate and strong ninos, and areas like northern Maine prefer strong ninas, but what about southern new England? There are some risks associated with both ninos and ninas, but i would think overall ninas are more favorable due to our latitude protecting us from the se ridge to an extent.

This looks really good for us, somewhat similar to what I described in my post in regards to my March forecast. It looks like a piece of the polar vortex broke off from the main central-western Canada lobe and is chilling in eastern Canada, which is our cold source. Then to the southeast you have a La Niña induced southeast ridge, with a gradient between that will create a boundary. There is also energy coming into the west coast, which looks like it will move across the country and try to cut into Ohio due to the southeast ridge, but will be forced to redevelop underneath the polar vortex lobe in southeast Canada. The storms look to weaken in the Midwest and redevelop somewhere off the SE Jersey coast where the boundary is. DC will likely get screwed and Philly looks to be on the edge due to the Miller bs developing too late for them. Looking at where the gradient is this appears to be the type of pattern where NYC north gets hammered. This looks a lot better than it did a week ago and gives me confidence that I have the right idea as we head into March.

If anything this is the type of pattern you would see in a record strong La Niña with the pacific cooled off so much that arctic air doesn’t modify much if at all before reaching Texas. I should have specified southEAST states being well above avg, there is a lot of cold in the southwest right now.

Euro looks to still have the Miller b for the 23rd, though it’s a bit too far north this run.