George001

It’s interesting how the strongest negative anomalies are moving east as they surface, which could be a really good sign for a more favorable structure (more east based, basin wide right now) for winter taking hold as the La Niña continues to strengthen in the near term.

The gfs has a strong polar vortex throughout December wear as the Euro weakens it late December. The weakening of the polar vortex has been delayed a bit, but not denied in my opinion. As for the La Niña, the subsurface is starting to weaken but there is still significant negative anomalies just below the surface. These negative anomalies are rising to the surface, and should help strengthen the La Niña further. We are already at -1.0 on the weekly reading in the Enso 3.4 region, and with further cooling expected a moderate peak is very likely. A well coupled La Nina peaking at the -1.0 to -1.2 range isn’t exactly weak.

Guys get a look at the Canadian 200 hours out, it’s a coastal scraper but a massive 972 mb low offshore. If that comes up the coast, while cold air is marginal at this time of the year, due to the strength of the low, it would undergo rapid cyclogenesis and create its own cold air via dynamic cooling. That would result in severe blizzard conditions from NYC to Maine. The storm is caused by the northern branch diving to the south, tapping into the warm gulf coast waters, going negatively tilted. The low then transfers from the Midwest to off the mid Atlantic coast, turning into a Miller B. This is a low probability at this time (due to climo and limited North Atlantic blocking), but the model guidance is forecasting North Atlantic blocking to develop a couple days later. If that develops just a little earlier, the probability of this massive nor’easter coming to fruition increases. More likely, things don’t quite come together, but then when the North Atlantic blocking develops the last week of November, we start getting big winter storm threats.

Ray, I am wondering what your thoughts are about the pattern presented on the CFS from Jan-Mar. In Dec, the pacific looks decent, but with the lack of blocking I agree your area is in a much better spot than us in se ma. With the look the CFS has in January though I’d take the overall pattern it has for the winter and run. That January pattern looks straight up epic. Feb and March, im not a fan of the trough out west. But March looks to have some blocking and both Feb and Mar have a nice look on the precip charts. Maybe the Feb-Mar look would be something like 2005-2006 with a mild pattern overall, but active pattern with chances at a big one?

I’m not sure if I’ll be able to make it or not but I might stop by, can someone DM me the address

It’s weakening a little earlier than anticipated but make no mistake, this is a real La Niña that is well coupled with the atmosphere. The MEI value is at -1.5, that doesn’t happen in a La Niña that isn’t well coupled to the atmosphere. There has also been significant cooling over the past couple months off the northern pacific coast, another indicator that La Niña is already driving the atmospheric pattern. Strength wise, it is expected to be a low end moderate La Niña, maybe a tad weaker strength wise than last year (last year was -1.3, this year probably -1.1 or so peak). However, this La Niña despite being weaker is more well coupled to the atmosphere, the MEI is higher, the northern pacfic ssts are cooler ect. La Niña isn’t going to fade into the background while other factors drive our winter pattern, La Niña will likely be a major pattern driver, even more so than last year despite being a tad weaker.

That type of pattern would be a high ceiling one on New England, in some of the mid Atlantic boards they cringe at the thought of Miller Bs, but those Miller Bs that screw them over often bury us. It seems like Miller As just don’t have the crazy high ceiling Miller Bs do. Jan 2015, Feb 1978, Feb 2013, Jan 2005 ect all Miller bs.

Yeah it’s not good yet, but it’s close and if you extrapolate those 2 maps above to later December I would think the pattern becomes great. North Atlantic blocking looks like it is starting to develop there, even with a trough west of ideal that can work. The blocking should help turn those lows initially running inland redevelop off the coast and turn into Miller Bs.

Honestly I expected it to strengthen and peak mid to late December or so, in my forecast I said I thought it would peak -1.2 to -1.6, I was leaning high end a couple weeks ago but now it looks like the people who were calling for high end weak/low end moderate will be right. That’s kind of a big deal for areas farther south, don’t know about where I live. I have heard earlier peaking ninas are more favorable anyways, I would think by the time winter hits we’re going to be in a full blown Nina pattern due to the lag effect. Everything is lining up for at least a good winter in the Boston area. Whether or not it’s great remains to be seen.

Yeah ninas are better for NYC north generally. In the winter of 2010-2011, the la nina was quite strong at -1.6 degrees Celsius. In 1995-1996 however, the La Niña only peaked at -1 degrees Celsius. In weaker ninas it seems like the pattern isn’t as hostile as stronger ones in the mid Atlantic, though still not as favorable as a nino for you guys.

March 2018 was wild, I remember mid month there was a massive 960s mb storm that was offshore, but the precip field was so expansive that when combined with the North Atlantic blocking in place, it resulted in severe blizzard conditions in eastern mass. My area got so much snow (there was already about 10 inches on the ground from a previous storm a few days ago), that due to the weight of all the snow, a huge tree fell in my backyard and we hired someone to remove it. I’m not sure the exact totals, but eyeballing it looked to be at least 20 inches of snow from that storm. Nearby towns reported in the range of 20-24, and I believe some areas farther north got close to 30 inches.

Great read, the fast start, mild period mid winter and big March you are forecasting is very similar to 2017-2018. That was a great winter.

I’m not a fan of the overall look, December looks good with North Atlantic blocking and a ridge out west. January has the blocking which is great, but there is a massive trough out west. I hate that, hopefully it goes away. February and March are straight up garbage with no North Atlantic blocking and all the cold air locked up around the North Pole. That is a strong polar vortex pattern. This winter pattern verbatim would go out with a whimper and probably be below average in eastern mass. I do think it’s a few adjustments away from being good though, just need a more favorable polar vortex intrusion with it coming into the east instead of out west in Jan, then get one more polar vortex intrusion later in winter.

Later in December and especially January could get really interesting.

I probably won’t be good but I don’t think it will be awful either, it will be somewhere in the middle. I don’t expect the pacific jet to go crazy like it has recently.

I’m glad we are getting this garbage pattern out of the way early rather than wasting prime climo and kicking the can down the road on a pattern change to cold in mid winter.

I do think we punt half of December, but still end up with a big storm at the end of the month. Then January is when all hell breaks loose and we get hammered.

Yep, I’m going for a big winter in all of eastern mass, right down to the cape.

Based on what I have seen on the models, everything is going according to plan and I see no reason to panic about my 70-85 inch forecast for in the Boston area this winter. I do however believe that the pattern change will be delayed, the polar vortex is expected to deepen and consolidate over the North Pole. The European guidance has the strength of the polar vortex well above normal into the 3rd week of November, rapidly weakening in the last week. There would likely be a lag too, so I would think the pattern change is mid to late December.

Will November likely be a warm month? Based on what I see on the models, yes. November will likely end up several degrees above average, with not one flake of snow. However, that does not mean that this won’t be a big winter. In my winter forecast, I forecasted a very warm November due to the strengthening of the polar vortex and consolidation over the North Pole. I do expect this warm pattern to continue into the first half of December. However, by late November the polar vortex is expected to weaken significantly. There is a lag, which is why I expect the pattern change to be week 3 in December, with the potential for a severe blizzard the last week of December. Although the pattern will likely change in December, I do expect even December to average warmer than normal, but only 1 to 2 degrees warmer than normal. Where shit is going to really get wild is January, when the effects of the polar vortex event we are expected to experience in December are well underway. January is going to be our big month, with 2-4 severe blizzards from NYC north (not all will be a direct hit, someone will probably get screwed). In NYC, my forecast is this Dec- temp +1 to +2 snow 10-15 in Jan- temp -4 to -3 snow 25-30 in Feb- temp +4 to +5 snow 0-3 in Mar- temp -2 to -1 snow 10-12 in Total- 45-60 inches A warm snowless November is not the end of the world when it comes to our chances for winter. In 2014-2015, my area (Boston) pretty much punted the entire first half of winter and we ended up with 110 inches of snow. Trust the process, I’d rather be staring down a shitty October and November with a weak polar vortex expected than vice versa.

Woah! The strength of the La Niña is increasing quickly. I know you have said earlier you think it peaks at around -1.2, do you think we are close to peak strength right now or are you starting to think it may even become a strong La Niña?

What is more concerning is that we are setting records for warmth almost every year. Climate change is not only there, but it is accelerating. The increase in average temperature hasn’t yet resulted in less average snow in our area, but it has in areas to the south like DC. I do believe we will eventually reach a point where the increased ocean temps allowing lows to bomb out more and deliver big storms will not be enough to overcome marginal events that used to be heavy wet snow turning into a cold rain, even here.

Strength wise the la ninas are similar (at least to this point, that could change as we get to Dec and Jan), but the structure for this one is much more favorable. It’s more basin wide vs central based, which is a good sign for a more favorable pacific with less troughing in the west. The pacific blob is in a bad location like that year, but the polar vortex is forecast on the models to be weak. I truly believe this winter will be a lot better than 2011-2012, just gotta get North Atlantic blocking.

You bring up a good point about the solar activity, it has been increasing lately. If it keeps increasing, that could be a big red flag. That will definitely need to be watched. For the nor’easters timing up with periods of weakening blocking, that can work if the pacific cooperates, but if the western ridge is too far west, we could see a scenario like last year where the gradient is just to the north and west of the Boston area.

I did it, I went big. The La Niña structure being basin wide instead of central based (it went more west based in late February and March last year, this year I believe if anything it goes more east based latter half of winter, and we will see it’s influences in March) is huge. The polar vortex expected to be weak with a severe hurricane season in the fall makes me think we could see things get wild with a cold and stormy pattern especially in January. The reason why I didn’t go all in on 1995-1996 is I think the pacific warm blob being that far west will come back to bite us in the ass in Feb, leading to a trough in the west. I believe the pacific will be much better than last year, but worse than 1995-1996. I actually think it’s good that the blocking in Jan won’t be as severe as last year, we missed on quite a few lows to the south with the blocking being so extreme it was bad.