George001

What would you guys say the chances the La Niña increases in strength more than expected and becomes similar in strength to the 2010-2011 La Niña? I’m thinking it could strengthen more than expected due to the cooling in the enso 3.4 region being more than most models had us by now, the increasing soi, active tropics, and rapidly cooling subsurface.

I have been looking into it a bit more and not only is the temperatures in the enso region (both surface and subsurface) starting to decrease, but tropical storm activity and the SOI is increasing. Both of these things indicate that the atmospheric pattern reflects La Niña. The Enso 3.4 region being down to -.5 degrees below average already in late July would put us on track to follow the coldest members of the cfs v2 enso forecast ensembles. The mean right now for that model is roughly -.8 in the enso 3.4 region, however by now the mean had us at roughly -.3 in the enso 3.4 region and we are at -.5. Many of the ensembles in the cfs v2 model that have us at -.5 by now take us to a moderate La Niña. With how the atmosphere and subsurface look combined with the trend of the models with each update increasing the strength of the La Niña forecasted for winter, I would not be surprised if the La Niña is already at moderate strength by September, potentially increasing even more and becoming stronger than last years La Niña. I know I said I was thinking -.8 to -.9 was likely before but looking at the latest data I’m starting to believe we could see a peak of -1.2 to -1.6 in the fall.

woah, we are already down to -.5 in nino 3.4 over the past week. That’s already low end weak Nina territory and the negatives in the subsurface have strengthened rapidly. I didn’t think the Nina would develop this quickly, could the models be underestimating the strength of the La Niña? I’m starting to think we are going to see a moderate La Niña in the fall.

This is a very good sign, still early of course but something to watch. This does not guarantee a big winter (could easily end up being too far west) but i would rather see this than a signal for polar vortex consolidation over the North Pole.

Severe North Atlantic blocking+ Nina is a great setup for us. The best setups are probably severe North Atlantic blocking+ Nina and weak nino+ Slightly displaced eastern Canada polar vortex+ Western north american ridge with Limited North Atlantic blocking. In the winter of 2014-2015 we had hardly any North Atlantic blocking, but had a perfectly positioned polar vortex, although it was near the North Pole and did not split that year, it was stretched out (polar vortex displacement) which allowed cold air intrusions to enter the eastern half of the country. In my opinion the lack of North Atlantic blocking helped us to an extent (after the first blizzard, that one had North Atlantic blocking and was more northern stream driven, a Miller b). If we had severe blocking in 2015 many of those feb blizzards would have missed to the south.

It seems like in New England if there is a Nina you want more severe North Atlantic blocking to turn what would be storms cutting to our west and bringing us rain into Miller bs that redevelop over Long Island or the Jersey shore before coming up the coast, going right over cape cod or the islands. Where as with ninos we actually want less North Atlantic blocking because ninos tend to have a farther south storm track to begin with, with an active southern branch but limited northern branch interaction (especially in stronger ninos). In both 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 we had severe North Atlantic blocking but 09-10 was a ratter in New England (except NYC, Metfan probably loved that winter), where as in 2010-2011 New England got hammered. In my opinion the reason we got hammered in 2010-2011 instead of the mid Atlantic in 2009-2010 despite both years having severe North Atlantic blocking is the Enso state. In 2009-2010 we had a strong El Niño where as in 2010-2011 we had a super Nina.

That’s true, hippies tend to be skeptical of the vaccines as well and they are as far left as it gets.

Yankees need to move on from Boone

Anti vaxxers piss me off but I still don’t want to see them die. I’m just going to say it, anti vaxxers are Republican. Even Trump admitted that most anti vaxxers voted for him, and encouraged his supporters who are skeptical to get vaccinated. I don’t have anything against Republicans, hell I even lean conservative myself so I understand where they are coming from with being skeptical of the government. People see all these breakthrough cases, hear about the side effects, ect. These are real things, but people don’t dig deeper and look at the breakthrough cases and look at the percentage of total cases that are breakthrough cases, the percentage of people who get severe side effects, the percentage of breakthrough cases people get hospitalized for, death ect. If you know someone personally who got really sick even though they got vaccinated or had severe side effects then it’s understandable why they might be skeptical. When people close to you are getting hurt it can be very hard to think logically. Instead of putting these people down a better approach would be to try to educate them. Just to be clear I’m not saying every Republican is an anti vaxxer, I have an uncle who is a very strong Republican who voted for Trump twice, and is a conspiracy theorist, yet he got vaccinated.

Yeah that’s the reason why anti vaxxers piss me off so much. Im worried that the increase in covid cases will cause governments to overreact and reinstate mask mandates and social distancing guidelines. I also worry that colleges will move back online. I finally got my life back, I don’t want to be forced to give it back up.

That’s the only thing I got right about my AL east predictions early in the year, the Orioles being bad is basically a given every year. After the first series I thought it would be the Red Sox and Orioles fighting for last place with both teams eventually finishing under 60 wins.

Getting no hit down 4-0 to having a lead, wow

Tie game!

LETS ****IN GO

lol he heard us

Why not pinch hit for that bum franchy

2 runs now Red Sox are actually making this a game

About time

I got my vaccine so I have already started living my normal life again, and I am not going back. Im not going to wear a mask to protect people who refuse to get vaccinated when they had had plenty of time and easy access to do so.

Just get a hit I don’t expect the Red Sox to win this game but at least show some fight cmon

Yeah he’s not ready yet. He has a lot of potential but he’s swinging at balls at his eyes right now. That is unacceptable.

Thats the type of winter where I nail most of my forecasts.

the strength of the La Niña is right now forecasted to be similar to 2017-2018, a high end weak nina, and it is a second year nina as well with increasing solar activity. However, by mid fall that La Niña hadn’t even formed yet, where as this Nina is forecasted to already be borderline moderate by then (like -.8). This is more similar to the progression of the super Nina of 2011 (much weaker in strength but similar in terms of peaking in the fall), that La Niña was already up to -1.6 by September! By December of 2011, the La Niña was still strong and maintained its strength for over 3 straight months. In my opinion this gave the atmosphere enough time to respond to the strong La Niña and allowed the atmospheric pattern to reflect La Niña the entire winter. Looking at the recent ocean temps in the enso region, the enso 3.4 region already is starting to tank, going from +.3 to -.1 over the past 3 weeks. The Pacific Ocean as a whole is starting to cool off as well, with it being a mix of cold and warm unlike last year where it was all warm. That warm blob in the northern pacific is still too far west though, and the sst configuration indicates that although we could see a more favorable pacific jet configuration, the strength of the pacific jet is still stronger than average, so there are some mixed signals for the winter of 2021-2022. I’m not going to issue an official winter forecast until November but right now my early thought on analogs would be 2020-2021 (good match with the fall peaking Nina and increasing solar, North Pacific blob west of ideal) 2017-2018 (good match with the strength of the nina, 2nd year nina, strong pacific jet but slightly more favorable location of North Pacific blob, Nina more east based which this one probably won’t be) 2010-2011 (good match with the fall peaking Nina and increasing solar, more central based like this one, though this Nina was much stronger and the pacific jet was weaker) right now I’m not seeing 1995-1996 as a great analog since I don’t think the pacific will be all that great, but I also think it won’t be as bad as last year, and the nina peaking in the fall as well as the strength should be favorable. I don’t like the pacific blob so far west though, and the Nina is forecasted to be more west based which isn’t ideal. However, the sst configuration on the Atlantic side looks pretty good so we have a good chance at getting more polar vortex intrusions than a garbage winter like 2011-2012. Overall the early signs are mixed but I would say they are more favorable than last year. What do you guys think? My favorite analog is 2017-2018, I think it’s most realistic looking at the early signs. Not a crazy record breaking wall to wall winter like 1995-1996, but still an above average winter even with the lull in mid winter and the warm spells. Way better than 2011-2012 and even about twice as much snow as last year.

Yeah 2013-2014 was a good winter but it left a lot on the table in my opinion, we narrowly missed a historic blizzard in late March that year, I remember the models had the strength of the low into the 940s at one point, if that had came up the coast, that would have likely been a widespread 3 footer. Even the severe blizzard in March 2018 that dropped 2 feet of snow where I live got down to the low 960s, just imagine a low in the 940s that is a slow mover coming up the coast! Had that storm hit, that winter would have been up there with the 2014-2015, 2010-2011, 1977-1978, 2004-2005, and 1995-1996 winters.

I don’t know how relevant this is but the strength of the La Niña is expected to peak in the fall, not the winter. With the winter of 2017-2018, (this upcoming Nina is forecasted to be similar in strength), the Nina didn’t peak until later. The La Niña hadn’t even formed yet by mid fall in 2017-2018, where as last year we were already at a high end moderate La Niña, 1995-1996 was already borderline moderate, and 2010-2011 was already a strong La Niña. My thought process is that when a La Niña increases in strength throughout the fall, by December whatever lag effect from when the Nina first forms to when the atmosphere responds with a Nina like pattern has already happened by December. This is a big deal for early winter, as I would think a Nina that peaks in the fall by December the Nina is already dominating the pattern, like Dec 2010, Dec 2020, Dec 1995, ect. In early winter, climo is not favorable enough that a purely southern stream system will get it done, that will likely just be a cold rain (like the early dec system last year, the one before the severe blizzard in mid December). You need the northern stream to get involved, otherwise eastern mass will get skunked. A La Niña pattern is more favorable for northern stream interaction leading to more snow NYC north early winter. Therefore my early thoughts are we have a decent shot at an active December with several Miller b blizzards, whether or not that pans out will depend on how the Enso forecast changes, and whether or not we get the polar vortex to cooperate. If the polar vortex goes to the North Pole and sits there the whole winter, it won’t matter what the Enso state is, we will be screwed like 2019-2020 and 2011-2012. Those years both had favorable enso states for New England, but there just wasn’t enough cold with it all being bottled up in the North Pole. If we can get even a little bit of polar vortex cooperation in early December, watch out, we could have Dec 2010 all over again.